Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
314 AM MDT SAT APR 28 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. AS A RESULT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECASTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CAUSES A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST DATA SHOWING STORMY WEATHER SCENARIO STILL ON TRACK FOR
THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING INDUCING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH ATTENDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL THEREFORE INCREASE INTO THE 40S
AND EVEN LOW 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH. IN ADDITION THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH CAPES FROM 1000 TO 1500
J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL BAJA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST TODAY INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE CWA AS REGION WILL BE IN
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF ASSOCIATED 80 KT JET STREAK TOWARD EVENING. IN
ADDITION MODELS SUGGEST WEAK SHORT WAVES EJECTING OR ROTATING
AHEAD OF SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
THUS CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SHOULD BE BELOW 8000 FT AGL SO
A FEW STORMS AT LEAST SHOULD PRODUCE HAIL. HOWEVER STILL SOME
QUESTION OF STORM ROTATION AS WRF FORECASTING LITTLE SPEED SHEAR
WITH HEIGHT MOST OF THE CWA WHILE GFS DOES SHOW STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WRF ACTUALLY SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR BACK BUILDING STORMS AS LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
ACTUALLY GREATER THAN SPEEDS AT MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MUST THEREFORE STAY ALERT FOR EITHER
SEVERE AND/OR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION.

UPPER LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA TOMORROW EVENING. DYNAMIC LIFT VIA DIFFERENTIAL PVA PLUS
COOLING ALOFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO SUPPORT STRONG
CONVECTION AGAIN SUNDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN
BRANCH RACES ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT
AGAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA GENERATING AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 83  57  77  57  86 /  20  50  50  30  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        77  54  73  54  84 /  30  50  50  40  10
LAS CRUCES              79  53  77  54  86 /  20  50  50  30  10
ALAMOGORDO              78  51  73  51  84 /  20  50  50  50  10
CLOUDCROFT              57  39  51  38  62 /  30  50  60  50  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  52  73  51  84 /  20  40  40  30  10
SILVER CITY             76  47  69  46  78 /  20  50  50  20  10
DEMING                  84  53  75  53  88 /  20  50  40  20  10
LORDSBURG               86  53  78  53  86 /  20  40  40  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
725 AM MDT SAT APR 28 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-291300-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
725 AM MDT SAT APR 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE  HAIL OVER
AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN
INCH CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH
ISOLATED STORMS PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BEEN REQUIRED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING FOR SEVERE OR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS.

ROGASH