Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
213 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST HAS BROUGHT
INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL WORK TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND INITIATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS WEST AND MORE NUMEROUS STORMS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL STORMS SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE DRIER AND WARMER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS WORKED BACK INTO THE BORDERLAND AS A BACKDOOR
FRONT HAS OPENED THE GULF TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED SE FLOW UP TO H600 LEVEL AND INCREASED
PWS TO .90 FOR EPZ. A WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE AZ/NM
LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LOW WILL ALLOW MINOR JETS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES TO TRACK OVER.
THESE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
TRIGGER CONVECTION IN AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE SHOWS A VEERING PROFILE. THE HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS ALLOW
FOR PLENTY OF BUOYANCY. THUS ALL INDICATORS POINT TOWARD ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH FOCUS ON LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN ALSO LIKELY...
BUT 20KT STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FLASH FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER SCATTERED POPS TONIGHT...LOWER
POPS OUT WEST.

FOR SUNDAY...GFS AND NAM MODELS INDICATE DROPPING POPS. I DONT
TOTALLY BELIEVE IT AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY MOISTURE-
SWEEPING WEST FLOW. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT DOWN TICK IN ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP MOST ALL ZONES UNDER AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
WORDING. MONDAY AN UPPER LOW...CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW... IS
PROGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING IS A LITTLE TRICKY...BUT
MODELS INDICATE BEST POPS MON MID DAY INTO THE EVENING. HAVE
RAISED POPS A BIT FOR THAT PERIOD.

THE MOISTURE LOOKS SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AND IN FACT LOOKS TO
BECOME SOMEWHAT TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING HIGH FOR THE LATE TUE
THROUGH END OF THE WEEK TIME FRAME. MODELS DONT SHOW ANY PCPN FOR
THIS PERIOD. BUT A WEAK BACKDOOR FOR THURSDAY MAY TRIGGER SOME
STORMS IN THE SAC ON THU AFTERNOON. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWFA...TEMPS WILL CREEP UP TOWARD THE 100
DEGREE MARK NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE LOWLAND.S

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 10/00Z-11/00Z... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
IN VCTY OF STORMS. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
IFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN IN SOME STORMS. SOME STORMS WILL
PRODUCE +RS AND GS TO GR. STRONG TSTM OUTFLOW WINDS...WITH ISOLD
AREAS OF VRB30G50KTS. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING...
AND BEGIN AGAIN MID DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  92  67  87  63 /  40  20  20  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        61  84  62  79  59 /  40  30  30  40  30
LAS CRUCES              65  92  63  85  60 /  40  20  20  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              62  86  61  87  58 /  40  20  20  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              48  66  43  65  42 /  50  30  30  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   61  90  61  84  58 /  40  20  20  40  30
SILVER CITY             54  83  56  76  54 /  30  10  10  40  30
DEMING                  62  91  63  86  59 /  40  10  10  40  30
LORDSBURG               61  91  62  89  59 /  30  10  10  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14 / BIRD