Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
220 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LOCAL HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SOME ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS DEVELOP...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE DRYING PATTERN CONTINUES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DESERT ELEVATIONS
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMY SITUATION STILL SLOW IN EVOLVING BUT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 3 HOURS. SYNOPTICALLY...WEAK UPPER LOW STILL SITTING OVER
THE BAJA WITH WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. WEAK UPPER
TROUGH STRETCHING OUT OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO... LOOKED TO BE HINDERED IN MOVEMENT THIS MORNING FROM STORM
TOP OUTFLOW/GRAVITY WAVES FROM LAST NIGHTS WEST TEXAS STORMS...BUT
NOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CWA AND HELPING DEVELOP SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS NOW UP OVER GILA WILDERNESS AREA. ON THE
SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE HEAVY RAINFALL IN HUDSPETH COUNTY THIS MORNING
FROM STRONG STORMS HAS SENT OUT A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
STABILIZING EFFECT OVER EL PASO...DONA ANA AND SOUTHER OTERO
COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AREA THOUGH THEY MAY
TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE FORMING. IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECT
GRANT AND SIERRA COUNTIES TO BE MOST ACTIVE FROM COMBINATION OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REACHING THAT AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL SEVERE WX PARAMETERS STILL
LOOK GOOD. GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. ALSO PWS REMAIN AROUND 150-170% OF
NORMAL SO FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN FORECAST IN DAY 2 ON. SATURDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE AS MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE...EXCEPT MAYBE
A BIT OF DRYING FAR WEST. STRONGER DRYING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SO LOWERING TREND IN POPS LOOKS GOOD.

ONLY CHANGES MADE IN FORECAST WAS WED/THUR PERIOD AS GFS CONTINUES
TO FLIP FLOP ON BACK DOOR PUSH. THE WEST WARD PUSH NICKS THE THE SAC
MTNS WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. JUST BEEFED CLOUDS UP A
LITTLE...NO OTHER WEATHER MENTIONED...UNTIL MODEL BECOMES MORE
CONSISTENT WITH FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z-27/00Z...
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 65  84  64  87  63 /  50  30  30  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        63  82  62  85  59 /  50  40  40  30  20
LAS CRUCES              62  85  62  86  60 /  50  30  30  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              61  82  62  90  59 /  50  40  40  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              44  61  45  65  43 /  60  40  40  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   61  84  60  86  57 /  50  30  30  20  10
SILVER CITY             54  77  55  80  52 /  40  30  30  10  10
DEMING                  62  85  62  87  59 /  50  30  30  20  10
LORDSBURG               62  88  62  87  59 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17 HEFNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
605 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-261215-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
605 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL FUEL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND DRAINAGES NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWER
FROM WEST TO EAST. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS EAST THE RIO GRANDE ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE CALLED UPON TO PROVIDE INFORMATION ON ONGOING
WEATHER IN THEIR AREA.

LUNDEEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1040 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007

TXZ056-251800-
HUDSPETH TX-
1040 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007

...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY...

A LINE OF STRONG TO MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS CENTRAL HUDSPETH COUNTY.  THE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
FOLLOWED INTERSTATE 10 FROM WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY RIGHT ON ACROSS
TO FAR EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.  RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF ONE
HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH ARE INDICATED.  MOTORISTS IN CENTRAL
HUDSPETH COUNTY ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 10 SHOULD BE CAUSES FOR
PONDING WATER ON THE ROADWAY AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES.  IN ADDITION
OFF THE INTERSTATE NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS MAY
QUICKLY FILL WITH WATER.  REMEMBER NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

TSB