Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1218 PM MDT SUN SEP 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH REMNANTS
EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ZONES INTO THE GILAS. EASTERLY
FLOW AT LOW LEVEL ADVECTING MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTED NEAR A HIGH 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EXISTS AND DESPITE
CLOUD COVER CAPES WILL BE NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/NORTH OF FRONT
SHOULD THEREFORE GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION. MAIN CONCERN IS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN MEANING LITTLE
ENTRAINMENT WHILE CLOUD LAYER WINDS INDICATE SLOWER STORM
MOVEMENT.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOW
MONDAY WITH MODELS SUGGESTING WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE CWA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. OF PROBABLY GREATER SIGNIFICANCE IS STRONGER
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
DEEP WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1.3 CONTRIBUTING TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS CAPES LIKELY FROM 1000 TO 1500
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THUS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY IN BUILDING RIDGE WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH DRY SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. LATEST GFS MOVES
ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BUT PRODUCES LITTLE PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FT AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  90  67  85  65 /  40  30  40  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        65  87  62  81  61 /  50  30  40  30  30
LAS CRUCES              66  89  64  84  62 /  40  30  40  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              65  88  62  81  61 /  40  30  40  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              48  67  45  58  40 /  50  40  50  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  88  62  83  61 /  40  30  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             60  83  56  80  51 /  40  30  40  30  30
DEMING                  65  90  62  85  61 /  40  30  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               65  89  62  85  61 /  40  30  40  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH/ADAIR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1020 AM MDT SUN SEP 9 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-101730-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1020 AM MDT SUN SEP 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALLS WITH FLASH FLOODING...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL.

DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING VIA OUR
800 NUMBER OR VIA LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

ROGASH