Red Flag Warning 9, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
315 AM MDT THU APR 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN ESTABLISHED
OVER THE CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
IS NOW ENTERING WEST COAST AND SHOULD UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION AS 160 KT UPPER JET STREAK ENTERS WESTERN QUADRANT.
AS A RESULT SYSTEM WILL DIG/TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD WITH UPPER LOW
ENTERING WESTERN ARIZONA TOWARD EVENING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL CONCURRENTLY DEEPEN OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON HEIGHT/PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY ALLOWING FOR
MIXING HEIGHTS TO 600 MB THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
MIXING TO SURFACE...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FOR
BLOWING DUST.

DESPITE NOCTURNAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET WINDS SHOULD STAY NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO
AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. IN ADDITION DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT WILL LOWER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY CREATE A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVERNIGHT. SO DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE
EXPECT STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT TO GENERATE ISOLATED PRECIP AT LEAST OVER HIGH TERRAIN.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER ALLOWING FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.

FRONT WILL PASS EARLY FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY. HOWEVER GRADIENTS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
WINDS NEAR ADVISORY SPEEDS AGAIN FRIDAY DESPITE COOLING AND
LOWERING MIXING HEIGHTS. BY SATURDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER MODELS HAVE REMAINED RATHER CONSISTENT IN MOVING YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST GFS SHOWS LOW MOVING INTO ARIZONA SUNDAY EVENING AND ACROSS
NEW MEXICO LATER MONDAY THUS SUGGESTING ANOTHER STRONG WIND EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING IN BLOWING SAND AND DUST. SEVERE TURBULENCE OVER HIGHER
MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 81  55  71  44  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        77  51  70  41  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              81  53  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              80  51  69  41  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              55  31  45  23  44 /   0  10  20   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   79  48  70  38  68 /   0  10  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             69  39  60  31  63 /  10  20  20   0   0
DEMING                  81  50  71  40  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               79  48  70  39  72 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ111-112.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     NMZ022>025-030>032.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ055-
     056.

&&

05 ROGASH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
420 AM MDT THU APR 12 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-131330-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
420 AM MDT THU APR 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING PRODUCING AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITIES UNDER
A MILE FROM BLOWING DUST AND SAND. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THUNDER MAY OCCUR TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WINDY FRIDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH.
LITTLE BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED DO TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

POSSIBLY WINDY AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40
MPH CAUSING BLOWING SAND AND DUST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ROGASH