Red Flag Warning 18, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
318 PM MDT TUE JUN 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION AND
MOVING IN DRY AIR IN ITS PLACE. TOMORROW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST RESULTING IN MUCH STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE REGION. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE
QUITE DRY AND WARM. FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
LOWLANDS WILL BE HIGH. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN A
BIT BUT REMAIN BREEZY THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE EAST AND GIVES THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
HUDSPETH COUNTY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED OVER THE CWFA...BUT DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW IS QUICKLY SCOURING OUT THE MOST OF IT. SOME CU
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SKY ISLANDS BUT LITTLE HOPE OF ANY THING
MORE. TO THE EAST BETTER MOISTURE MAY GIVE RISE WITH HEATING TO AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVER THE S SACS AND EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY
BEFORE SUNSET.

SYNOPTICALLY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...BUT WELL BE UNDER A MID
LEVEL JET IN THE TROUGHS BASE TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM ALOFT WILL
INDUCE A SHARP LEE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
GRADIENTS AND WINDS. THUS A WINDY DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED...WIND WARNING FOR THE SACS. IN ADDITION
VERY DRY AIR WILL ACCOMPANY. THUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
HEIGHTEN. TEMPS WILL STAY A DEGREE OR THREE ABOVE NORMAL.

GRADIENTS LOOSEN ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE
LEE TROUGH EASES. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST AND BREEZY...BUT THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AND FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN HIGH.

FRI A RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE TURNS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BEGIN A DRAW OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
FAR EASTERN CWFA. THIS WILL IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AT
BEST. THIS FETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE
WESTERLIES TAKE OVER ON SUNDAY. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED POPS BACK INTO
TO OTERO AND HUDSPETH FOR FRI EVE THROUGH SAT EVE. REST OF THE
AREA KEPT DRY.

SUNDAY ON EXPECT SEASONAL CONDITIONS...DRY...WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...06/00Z-07/00Z...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND ADVISORY FOR
WED AFTERNOON. WSW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KTS EXPECTED. ISOLD MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH BLDU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  96  68  92  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        65  95  62  92  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              67  95  64  93  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              64  95  61  93  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              46  71  41  67  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  92  61  91  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             57  86  52  84  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  66  95  63  92  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               66  94  63  92  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110-111.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ022>024-
     030>032.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ025.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

BIRD

14/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1020 AM MDT MON JUN 5 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-061715-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1020 AM MDT MON JUN 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL HASTEN DRYING OF THE AIRMASS END PUT AN END TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. FOR TODAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY. A FEW STORMS MAY FEW STORMS MAY PULSE
BRIEFLY TO SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY
QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WE CAN EXPECT DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FIRE DANGER
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE APPEARS TO
RETURN FRI AND SATURDAY OVER THE AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRAND FOR
SLIGHT STORM CHANCES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO DRY AND HOT AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED

BIRD