Red Flag Warning 16, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
503 AM MDT TUE APR 24 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WINDY DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. BY NEXT WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE
WILL RETURN WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY
AND EVEN SOME PLACE THIS MORNING IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THAT STILL PUTS IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE US
ANOTHER WINDY DAY. WE WILL HAVE A PRETTY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...BUT WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...SO I WILL KEEP OUR WINDS IN THE WINDY CATEGORY...BUT
I WILL KEEP THEM BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS
THE LOW MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
AREA MOUNTAINS...SO I HAVE PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THE LOW HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN SOME COOLER
AIR SO TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL TO OUR
EAST. IN ITS PLACE WE WILL SEE A RIDGE BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THAT MEANS WE WILL SEE SUNNY WARM
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITHOUT A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL OPEN UP THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND SURE ENOUGH ONE MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT IT WILL OPEN UP THE MOISTURE TO OUR EAST TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

AS I SAID TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT
WE WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND WE
WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE BACK DOOR FRONT
ON SATURDAY DOESNT HAVE A LOT OF COOLING WITH IT SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z-25/12Z
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL
CAUSE TURBULENCE NEAR AND DOWN WIND OF AREA MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 78  51  80  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        75  48  80  49  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              77  47  80  49  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              75  45  79  46  82 /  10  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  30  58  33  61 /  10  10   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   73  45  77  46  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             66  38  71  41  73 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  75  47  80  48  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               76  45  80  48  84 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ111-112.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ055-056.

&&

15/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
653 AM MDT TUE APR 24 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-251300-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
653 AM MDT TUE APR 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LITTLE BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.