Red Flag Warning 14, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
502 AM MDT SAT APR 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE WEEK TO CONTINUE OUR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. TODAY
WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE WINDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN...BUT
CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO BE LEANING ON THE WIND BUTTON TODAY.
AN APPROACHING TROF...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TIGHTEN OUR SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF. SO A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR AREA FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM. I DONT THINK
DUST WILL BE A BIG PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT I CANT RULE
OUT AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH BLOWING DUST.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON. IVE SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF TODAYS AND
SUNDAYS HIGHS FROM NORMAL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHT COOLING.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A VERY BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...BUT WE WILL QUICKLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT
UPPER LOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THIS SECOND LOW IS A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN TODAYS LOW...BUT THE BEST WIND DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
MONDAY. SO IVE KEPT MONDAYS WINDS IN THE WINDY CATEGORY...BUT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSIT THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAKER OPEN TROF WILL
SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO HELP GIVE US BREEZY TO WINDY
WINDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

EACH OF THE LOWS WILL BRING A LITTLE BIT OF COOL AIR WITH
IT...BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY BE COUNTERED BY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGES
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE UP SHOT OF ALL OF THIS IS
THAT WE WILL SEE OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS YO-YO FROM BELOW NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL WITH EACH PASSAGE OF A TROF OR RIDGE. THE GOOD NEWS
IS WE WONT YO-YO MORE THAN ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z-22/12Z
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON IN BLOWING SAND AND
DUST. MODERATE OR GREATER TURBULENCE BELOW 15,000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 78  47  81  54  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        76  44  79  52  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              77  43  80  51  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              76  41  78  49  81 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              54  28  56  36  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  41  76  49  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             66  35  67  45  68 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  76  43  79  51  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               76  43  79  51  80 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NMZ022>025-030>032.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     TXZ055-056.

&&

15/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
710 AM MDT SAT APR 21 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-221315-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
710 AM MDT SAT APR 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED OF THE AREA
FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OTHERWISE A GENERALLY QUIET WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.