Red Flag Warning 12, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
345 AM MDT WED APR 18 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND BREEZY
WINDS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES. SERIES OF TROUGHS/FRONTS WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FIRST TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ONLY A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH LARGE
SWATH OF HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO MOVE UP TO THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT FROM TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT
SO WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND FRONT.

SECOND TROUGH/FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY MORNING. TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN FIRST SYSTEM BUT STILL NOT LOOKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THREAT
OF SHOWERS. WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS TO AREA AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

THIRD TROUGH...STILL OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...WILL MOVE TO THE
GREAT BASIN MONDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW. GFS HAS BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT ON THIS THOUGH THE EXACT TRAJECTORY HAS BEEN CHANGING.
LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY EVENING SO WILL ALLOW
LOW POPS FOR THE GILA AT THAT TIME. LOW SLOWLY PUSHES TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY MORNING SO WILL PUT LOW POPS IN FOR ENTIRE
CWA...THOUGH BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE NORTH. ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH
ENOUGH COLD AIR TO FINALLY BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXISTING FIRE WEATHER WATCH LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. RHS WILL BE LOW
TODAY BUT PROBABLY JUST REACHING CRITERIA OVER THE LOWLANDS. WINDS
WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR THE MOST PART. WILL LET FIRE WX
FORECAST DECIDE WHEN HE ARRIVES ON THE SCENE...WHETHER TO CANCEL OR
CONTINUE THE STATEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/12Z-19/12Z...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CREATE A FEW AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS
FOR SPECIFIC CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 82  54  81  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        80  50  81  47  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              81  51  81  48  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  49  81  44  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              60  30  58  28  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   79  47  79  44  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             73  35  71  34  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  81  49  81  46  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               83  49  81  46  85 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ110.

TX...NONE.
&&

17 HEFNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
645 AM MDT WED APR 18 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-191200-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
645 AM MDT WED APR 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDY DAYS ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.