Red Flag Warning 1, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
336 AM MST MON FEB 26 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY WEST WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG PACIFIC
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISOLATED MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THROUGH AREA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY. A BROAD TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH ONTO THE WEST COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...BACKING 500MB FLOW A BIT. TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL
TROPA SIMILAR FROM MODEL TO MODEL...WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ALIGNED WELL WITH FLOW
ALOFT THAT SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN IN DAYTIME HEATING. ETA
SOLUTION WOULD PUSH WINDS TO JUST UNDER HIGH WIND WARNING
THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE GRAD AND MORE SOUTHERLY
POSITIONING OF LEE LOW PROVIDING MORE FAVORED PG VECTOR. SYSTEM
LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKS HIGH WIND EVENT...BUT A BIT
WEAKER OVERALL.

ALSO LIKE LAST WEEKS SYSTEM...THIS ONE IS DRY...WITH MAYBE SOME
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE ONE TO WATCH AGAIN THOUGH
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS...AS SFC
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN HEALTHY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT KEEPING THINGS
MIXED UP. SHOT FOR PRECIP MAYBE AIDED BY WEAK S/WV POCKETS SLIDING
THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH...INDICATED IN GFS AND ETA...DESPITE LACK OF
QPF OUTPUT. THIS SCENARIO IS HANDLED WILL IN CURRENT GRIDS...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DROP 850 TEMPS SOME 5-10 DEGREES FROM WED
TO THUR...PUSHING THURSDAY HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. ONLY SLIGHT WARMING
EACH DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THERMAL LAYOUT WILL BE COMPLICATED
A BIT AS COOL PACIFIC TROUGH SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN VEERS WINDS QUITE A BIT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING MOVES INTO N TX.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/12Z THROUGH 27/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON
WEST 10-20KTS. CHECK LOCAL TAFS AND TWEBS FOR UPDATES AND SPECIFIC
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  41  74  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        70  39  73  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              72  37  74  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              68  38  71  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              52  27  57  27  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  36  72  36  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             63  32  66  33  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEMING                  71  36  73  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               71  35  74  36  62 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...NONE.
&&

PIEPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
623 AM MST MON FEB 26 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-271330-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
623 AM MST MON FEB 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PIEPER