High Wind Watch 1, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
347 AM MST THU FEB 22 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY...GENERATING STRONG WINDS WITH SOME BLOWING DUST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE STATE YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY WHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE FLOW TAPS
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE AND HEAD IN OUR DIRECTION AND ENTER
THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHERE THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST. MODELS PROJECT AT LEAST 130 KNOT JET WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AT THAT TIME. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY A SURFACE LOW FORMING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SIGNIFICANTLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
WARNING LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE
A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE FORECAST AREA IN ANTICIPATION FOR THIS
WIND EVENT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO PRODUCE A FEW LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND ACCUMULATIONS SPOTTY AT
BEST. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
NIGHT. A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOONS WILL BE LIKELY. MODELS PROJECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS ABOVE 20 KFT. SFC
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  42  72  40  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        69  42  72  38  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
LAS CRUCES              69  38  70  37  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              68  38  67  35  56 /   0   0   0  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              53  27  49  15  35 /   0   0   0  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  37  64  33  54 /   0   0  10  20  10
SILVER CITY             62  34  55  25  45 /   0   0  20  30  10
DEMING                  70  38  66  35  56 /   0   0   0  20   0
LORDSBURG               70  37  65  33  54 /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR NMZ022>025-030>032.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

04/04

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