Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1115 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF DAYTIME AND NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...PULLING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OR IMPULSES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...OVERRUNNING THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. WITH AN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EASILY TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AND CAPE VALUES WOULD INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF THIS PATTERN WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING AT 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR HIGHER. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED FROM THIS PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
PRECIP AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN. AS THIS PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG DRAINAGES MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. A
DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/00Z-17/00Z. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST THE
PERIODS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND CONTINUE ON OVERNIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS DUE TO RAIN SHAFTS/BLOWING DUST AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 63  80  58  79  59 /  50  50  50  50  40
SIERRA BLANCA TX        57  72  52  75  52 /  60  60  50  50  40
LAS CRUCES              60  82  59  80  56 /  50  50  50  50  40
ALAMOGORDO              56  77  54  75  52 /  60  60  50  50  40
CLOUDCROFT              42  58  41  58  42 /  60  60  60  50  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  82  57  78  55 /  50  50  50  50  40
SILVER CITY             51  77  51  76  49 /  30  50  50  50  40
DEMING                  59  84  58  82  55 /  40  50  50  40  40
LORDSBURG               59  86  59  86  56 /  30  40  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

04/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
822 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-161430-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
822 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE MOISTURE AND
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO GIVE US A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HALF INCH
HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATION.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS OR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE CALLED UPON FOR REPORTS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.