Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
325 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY US OUT AND GIVE US ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AS WE ARE WORKING SEVERE WEATHER RIGHT NOW.
MOISTURE PLUME HAS HELPED KICK OFF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN
LATER THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
OKLAHOMA AND THAT WILL SCOUR OUT A LOT OF MOISTURE. SO WE WILL
DROP BACK ON THE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. IF MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE WE MAY HAVE TO PULL THE POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THEM IN AND WAIT FOR ONE MORE
MODEL RUN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WE CAN EXPECT OUR
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 10/00Z-11/00Z
GENERALLY SCT070 SCT-BKN150-250 AGL WITH ISOLD TSRA. LOCAL +TSRA
PSBL WITH IFR CONDS AND MTNS OCNLY OBSCD 00Z-06Z. ISOLD TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP 10/18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO THE LOWLANDS
DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  98  73  97  74 /  30  10  20  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        72  98  71  96  72 /  20  10  20  10  10
LAS CRUCES              70  97  70  97  71 /  30  10  20  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              70  97  71  96  72 /  30  10  20  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              49  75  49  74  51 /  30  20  30  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  96  69  95  71 /  20  10  20  10  10
SILVER CITY             64  87  62  88  63 /  20  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  70  97  69  97  71 /  20  10  20  10  10
LORDSBURG               69  97  68  95  70 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

15/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1120 AM MDT THU AUG 9 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-101730-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1120 AM MDT THU AUG 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS IN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING
ESPECIALLY OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WE WILL AGAIN SEE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...BUT THEN DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION AND THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE VIA OUR 800 NUMBER OR TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.