Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS El Paso, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEPZ 062138
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
336 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2007

NMC017-051-062146-
GRANT NM-SIERRA NM-
336 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM MDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
SIERRA AND NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTIES...

RAINFALL HAS ENDED OVER THE BLACK RANGE IN THIS AREA...AND DRAINAGE 
FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE ABATING.

LAT...LON 3289 10792 3290 10771 3320 10770 3321 10795

$$

FAUSETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
340 AM MDT MON AUG 6 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS SHIFTING NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW
ADDED MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY. THUS AN INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES UP TOWARDS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND...RESULTING IN WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN THE AREA BUT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
MAINLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT RETURN TO NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A
WEAKENING RIDGE EXTENDING BACK TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. UPPER LOW IS
NOW LOCATED ABOUT 200-250 MILES SOUTH OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL
WITH DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA AND ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA. BOTH NAM/GFS
SHOW SOME ENERGY MOVING UP IN THIS FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE
NAM IS MORE EXPLICIT IN DETAIL. PWS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH ALL THIS...AN INCREASE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP SAME COVERAGE FOR TUESDAY
AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO LIFT OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WEST BOTH DAYS
AS THAT MAY BE WHERE STRONGEST STORMS OCCUR DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC
DYNAMICS.

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS SLOW MIGRATION
BACK WEST. BY THURSDAY THE HIGH IS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
BY LATER SATURDAY IT IS OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS
WILL ALLOW EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN OVER THE AREA WHICH LIKELY
MEANS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE.

GFS SHOWING UPPER HIGH TO RETURN TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...MEANING YET FURTHER REDUCTION OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
MAYBE JUST LIMITED TO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 06/12Z-07/12Z...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR FOR CIGS AND VSBY IN
AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFT 18Z. LOW CIGS NEAR TSTMS WILL
OCNLY OBSCR MTN TOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 91  72  92  73  94 /  20  30  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        91  66  91  72  93 /  20  20  20  30  20
LAS CRUCES              91  69  91  72  93 /  20  30  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              91  67  91  69  93 /  20  30  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              69  49  70  51  72 /  30  20  30  20  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   90  68  91  68  92 /  20  30  20  30  20
SILVER CITY             84  63  82  63  84 /  20  40  30  30  30
DEMING                  90  69  90  70  92 /  20  30  20  30  20
LORDSBURG               91  68  91  69  93 /  20  40  30  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17 HEFNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1134 AM MDT MON AUG 6 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-071745-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1134 AM MDT MON AUG 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. MAIN THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. A FEW LOCATION MAY RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...THEN WE WILL SEE
A SLIGHT DRYING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT FLOODING OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER VIA OUR
800 NUMBER OR TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.