Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS El Paso, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEPZ 022038
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
237 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2007

TXC141-022046-
EL PASO TX-
237 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM MDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
EL PASO COUNTY...

RAIN HAS COME TO AN END FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS EL PASO 
COUNTY...AND THE COUNTY SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AT 
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS SUCH...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
FOR EL PASO COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 245 PM 
MDT.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA...OR THE INTERNET AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV SLASH EL PASO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES.

LAT...LON 3182 10658 3178 10649 3177 10641 3181 10642
      3199 10641 3199 10662

$$
PIEPER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
346 AM MDT THU AUG 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY AND FRIDAY. FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME FLOOD
PRONE AREAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMALS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
WARM TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS EXISTING FROM LOWER TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR AND
TRIGGER CONVECTION IS AN UPPER VORT CENTER THAT IS DRIFTING
SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE
EAST TO KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PWS
RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER SIXTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAY WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
FROM INTENSE RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY TODAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY AND THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED ONE MORE DAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE MODELS
PROJECT THE HIGH TO SHIFT TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE VORT
CENTERS MOVE INTO ARIZONA...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE.
ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A RESULT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE
MOSTLY HIGHER WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ALSO...WITH REDUCE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS OCCURRING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKENDS AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE PROJECTING A SMALL UPPER LOW
TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW COULD
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND LIFT AS WELL AS A VEERING
PROFILE NECESSARY TO GENERATE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE PLUME WILL FUEL
THESE NEW STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS TO
REBUILD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z-03/12Z
AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR OR CIGS AND VSBY IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS NEAR TSTMS WILL OCNLY HAVE MTN TOPS OBSCD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  70  87  69  92 /  50  50  40  40  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        85  65  84  63  90 /  50  50  40  40  20
LAS CRUCES              89  67  88  66  91 /  50  50  40  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              87  66  86  64  90 /  50  50  40  40  20
CLOUDCROFT              69  50  67  49  71 /  60  60  50  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   87  67  86  65  91 /  50  50  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             80  63  81  61  84 /  50  50  40  40  30
DEMING                  89  68  86  66  91 /  50  50  40  40  20
LORDSBURG               88  67  86  65  90 /  50  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ022>025-030>032.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

04/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1040 AM MDT THU AUG 2 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-031745-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1040 AM MDT THU AUG 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE
TWO TO THREE INCHES...WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THREAT OF FLOODING DECREASING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TO MONITOR HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING.