Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
251 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT SUMMER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE BORDERLAND.
WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT ITSELF EACH DAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS
NEAR THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY
CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ORIGINAL UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED NEAR KMAF
WHILE VORT CENTER ROTATED AROUND THIS LOW AND HAS NOW BECOME THE
MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF KELP. LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN UNCHANGED AND KICKED OFF THE USUAL OROGRAPHIC
THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FROM WV IMAGERY IT APPEARS SPOKE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW HAS FIRED OFF THE
STRONGEST STORMS ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE...OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THE FOCUS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT WEST OUT OF THE CWA
FOR THIS EVENING...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE
CWA NONE THE LESS. NAM LOOKS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION OF
LOW CURRENTLY...HOWEVER BOTH NAM AND GFS SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY DAMPENS AS IT OPENS UP INTO INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BASICALLY REMAINING
UNCHANGED AND AIRMASS UNSTABLE WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
FORECAST THROUGH PERIOD. GFS DOES SHOW SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR
CONVECTION. GFS DOES SHOW UPPER HIGH CONSOLIDATING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY THURSDAY AS NEW UPPER LOW CENTER FORMS IN INVERTED
TROUGH. THIS LOW CENTER TAKES VERY SLOW SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP FAIRLY BROAD
BRUSH OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/00Z-31/00Z
GENERALLY SCT-BKN050 BKN100 AGL WITH SCTD TSRA. LOCAL +TSRA WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDS AND MTNS OCNLY OBSCD MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z-09Z. UPR
LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS DRIFTING WEST COULD RESULT IN UPSLOPE CLOUDS
MAINLY EAST SLOPES AFT 09Z 7/30 WITH OCNL AREAS CIGS BKN030 AGL AND
MTNS TOPS OBSCD WITH
MVFR IN -SHRA BR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  92  71  90  70 /  30  30  40  30  40
SIERRA BLANCA TX        69  89  69  89  67 /  30  30  30  30  40
LAS CRUCES              67  92  68  90  67 /  30  30  40  30  40
ALAMOGORDO              67  92  67  91  65 /  40  30  40  30  40
CLOUDCROFT              47  68  47  69  48 /  40  40  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  91  68  89  66 /  30  30  40  30  40
SILVER CITY             63  84  62  82  62 /  40  40  40  40  40
DEMING                  69  90  69  89  67 /  30  30  40  30  40
LORDSBURG               68  92  68  91  66 /  40  30  40  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17 HEFNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1040 AM MDT SUN JUL 29 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-301745-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1040 AM MDT SUN JUL 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS TONIGHT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW AREAS OF FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE MOST PROBABLE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

 .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
256 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-300000-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SILVER CITY...TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES...
ALAMOGORDO...MESCALERO...CLOUDCROFT...TIMBERON...LORDSBURG...
DEMING...LAS CRUCES...EL PASO...SIERRA BLANCA...DELL CITY
256 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2007

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A FEW GUSTS TO 40
MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORMS TODAY. LOCALIZED URBAN AND
ARROYO FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS TODAY.

AS OF 250 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINE FROM LAS
CRUCES...SOUTHEAST TO MONTANA VISTA. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS
PUSHING SOUTHWEST...AND WAS EXPECTED TO CROSS EL PASO COUNTY
AND FAR SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY NEAR VADO BETWEEN 300 PM AND 330
PM MDT. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LUNA COUNTY...SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY...AND
HIDALGO COUNTY.

PIEPER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
602 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-300230-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SILVER CITY...TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES...
ALAMOGORDO...MESCALERO...CLOUDCROFT...TIMBERON...LORDSBURG...
DEMING...LAS CRUCES...EL PASO...SIERRA BLANCA...DELL CITY
602 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2007

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND THIS EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.

AS OF 600 PM MDT...RADAR WAS SHOWING TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FIRST AREA...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WAS EFFECTING AREAS AROUND
MESCALERO...CLOUDCROFT...TULAROSA...AND SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO
PINON. THIS AREA OF STORMS WAS PUSHING SOUTHWESTWARD...AND IS
EXPECTED TO EFFECT ALAMOGORDO AND OROGRANDE BY 630 PM MDT.

THE SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXTENDING FROM OVER
INTERSTATE 10 JUST EAST OF DEMING...SOUTH TO NEAR COLUMBUS. THIS
AREA WAS ALSO MOVING EASTWARD...AND ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT
DEMING...AND THE LENGTH OF HIGHWAY 11 FROM DEMING TO COLUMBUS.

STORMS THIS EVENING HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

PIEPER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
728 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2007

NMZ024-032-TXZ055-300245-
SOUTHERN DESERT NM-EL PASO TX-TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT NM-
728 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EL PASO AND SOUTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY...

AT 721 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES
EAST OF WHITE SANDS TO 7 MILES NORTH OF MONTANA VISTA TO 6 MILES
EAST OF FABENS. MOVEMENT WAS WEST AT 15 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
EL PASO PROPER BY AROUND 745 PM MDT...AND WORK TO THE WEST SIDE OF
EL PASO PROPER BY AROUND 830 PM MDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE LAS CRUCES...CLINT...HORIZON CITY...SPARKS...
TORNILLO...VINTON AND WESTWAY.

THESE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL THAT MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS. WARNINGS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PIEPER