Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MDT FRI SEP 28 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
DAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ON
SUNDAY...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PART OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS AHEAD OF A LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH IS
CONTINUING TO PULL UP SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OUT OF THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY FROM MORNING
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS MIGHT BECOME SEVERE...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OVER 60
MPH. CONTINUED SYNOPTIC FORCING BY THE TROUGH WILL GENERATE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE
AREA AND THE MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS TO THE EAST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL
HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER WEST
COAST TROUGH WILL PULL UP ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. AFTER MONDAY A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD TAKE HOLD AND
BRING IN A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS FOR TUESDAY AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS HAVE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN
RUNS AS TO WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK OR NOT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE
UNTIL A PERSISTENT TREND DEVELOPS WITH THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z
GENERALLY VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AREA MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR STORMS
ESPECIALLY ALONG EASTERN REACHES OF TWB196 AND THROUGH TWB195. IN
THE VICINITY OF STORMS...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. STORM OUTFLOW
WIND GUST TO 40 MPH NEAR STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  87  64  89  63 /  30  20  20  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        62  86  58  87  56 /  30  20  20  10  10
LAS CRUCES              64  86  61  89  60 /  30  30  20  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              62  86  58  87  56 /  30  30  20  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              44  65  43  66  41 /  50  40  20  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  86  58  87  56 /  30  40  10  10  10
SILVER CITY             55  81  53  81  51 /  30  30  10  10  10
DEMING                  64  87  60  88  58 /  30  30  10  10  10
LORDSBURG               64  89  60  88  58 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

04/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1129 AM MDT FRI SEP 28 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-291730-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1129 AM MDT FRI SEP 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH MINOR FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES MAY ALSO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY THOUGH NONE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY BUT WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
PART OF A STABLE WESTERLY FLOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THIS
OFFICE OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LUNDEEN