River Flood Warning 146, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
355 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...

HEAVY RAIN EVENT SETTING UP ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
TRAINING CELLS THIS MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THE 06Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN THAN THE 00Z RUN HAD.

CURRENT RADAR INDICATING BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SETTING UP
ACROSS A ST JOSEPH TO LANCASTER LINE WITH CELLS CONTINUALLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE. JUST NORTH OF THE EAX RADAR IS A PIVOT
POINT WHERE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS ENHANCING RAINFALL FROM A
COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED OVER KANSAS LAST NIGHT.

THE PROFILER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
VEER...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE FEEDING OF MOISTURE OVER THE SAME
REGION. MEANWHILE...UPPER JET DYNAMICS FAVORING DECENT UPWARD MOTION
IN THE SAME VICINITY. DECENT THETAE ADVECTION INDICATES COPIOUS
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE REGION. K INDEX VALUES
FORECASTED ABOVE 35 TODAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 310K SURFACE. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE AND WITH GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE STILL
AVAILABLE UNTIL AROUND 00 UTC THIS EVENING...THEREFORE WILL EXTENT
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THEN.

MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ALSO ON THE CHALLENGING SIDE...CLOUDS AND
COLD POOLS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEG F OR SO COOLER IN
THE NORTH...AND WARMER TO THE SOUTH. ADOLPHSON

&&

AVIATION...

TIMING OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER KANSAS BRING TSTM ACTIVITY INTO
KSTJ JUST AFTER 06Z...AND REMAINING TERMINALS CLOSER TO 08Z.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS PRIMARILY VFR...HOWEVER RADAR INTENSITIES
SUGGEST A GOOD DEAL OF MVFR UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MORE SOLID
AREA OF TSTMS OVER CNTRL KANSAS SHOULD REACH THE AREA BEFORE
12Z...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCALIZED IFR
POSSIBLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND POST CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST CIGS FALLING TO AOB 2K FT LATE THIS MORNING...WITH CONTINUE
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 100 AM FRIDAY TO 700 PM FRIDAY FOR
     MOZ001>008-MOZ011>017-MOZ021>023.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 100 AM FRIDAY TO 700 PM FRIDAY FOR
     KSZ025-KSZ102.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-251100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
550 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME
EASTERN KANSAS. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO RE-DEVELOP UPSTREAM...RESULTING IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 3 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN NORTHERN MISSOURI.

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
743 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ST. JOSEPH              39.76N 94.82W
08/24/2007                   BUCHANAN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ACROSS 759 HIGHWAY WITHIN ST. JOSEPH. 4 CARS
            STRANDED DUE TO WATER LEVEL RISING TO HOOD-LEVEL.

&&

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
745 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BETHANY                 40.27N 94.03W
08/24/2007                   HARRISON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN WITHIN THE TOWN OF
            BETHANY

&&

SAW