Freeze Warning 5, NWS Kansas City, MO

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Henry County, MO, Holt County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
301 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...

STUBBORN VERY COLD VORTEX CONTINUES RELATIVELY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...STRONG ARCTIC HIGH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH THE MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT
SUBSIDE TOO MUCH TONIGHT...THE DRY AND COLD AIR MASS ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE LOOKS A TAD COLD GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.

CAA WILL CONTINUE TO TONIGHT WITH H8 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -17 BY
DAYBREAK. STRONG APRIL INSOLATION WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE AIR
MASS ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

CAA STRATOCU WILL KEEP THE NERN GRIDS QUITE COLD FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COLDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IS IN STORE
FOR SUNDAY...BUT NO RAPID WARMUP IS EXPECTED.

ALSO COOLED TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS MODELS SLOWER TO
PROGRESS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST. PREFER THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE NAM AS THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BE BANKED AGAINST THE ROCKIES
THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

DB

EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MON THROUGH FRI)...

SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUING TO TREND TOWARDS ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN. FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWING WAVE ENERGY PUSHING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BREAKING THROUGH A WRN CONUS
RIDGE...THEN PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY ON THE ERN EDGE OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS CNTRL CANADA.

MAJOR QUANDARY FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE EXACT LATITUDINAL TRACK OF THE DEEPENING UPPER WAVE. 12Z
OPERATIONAL GFS/12Z UKMET/NEWEST 12Z ECMWF ALL NOW BRING A MORE SRN
TRACK ACROSS NRN ARKANSAS...LEAVING THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
IN THE COLD SECTOR OF THE STORM INFLUENCED HEAVILY IN DEFORMATION
BANDED PRECIPITATION. GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE STILL OFFERS A LARGE AMOUNT
OF SPREAD...AND AM NOT GOING TO JUMP WITH BOTH FEET ONTO THE FURTHER
SRN SOLUTION JUST YET...HOWEVER TRENDS AND CONFIDENCE ARE BEGINNING
TO LEAN THAT WAY. IF THIS SRN SOLUTION WERE TO MATERIALIZE...GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF COLD LOW LEVEL AIR...STRONG DYNAMICS AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND FORECAST MORNING TIME OF ARRIVAL ON
THE NW SIDE OF AN OCCLUDING SFC LOW...BANDED SNOWFALL WOULD
CERTAINLY BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS
PACKAGE...HOWEVER IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE SRN
SOLUTION...THIS IDEA WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED. NOT SINCE 1997 HAS
MORE THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW FALLEN IN KANSAS CITY IN THE MONTH OF
APRIL...AND NOT SINCE 1994 HAS MORE THAN 2 INCHES FALLEN IN THE CITY
IN APRIL.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEPENING
WAVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW. HAVE HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH
DEPENDING ON THE TRAJECTORY AND RESULTS FROM THE  WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM...REALIZED TEMPS COULD COME IN UNDER THE FORECAST NUMBERS.
RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE BY NEXT
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH REPEATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AT A PREMIUM.

21

&&

.AVIATION...

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY FOR MOZ001-
     MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ011-
     MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ020-MOZ021-
     MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-
     MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-
     MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM SUNDAY FOR MOZ001-
     MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ011-
     MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ020-MOZ021-
     MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-
     MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-
     MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-
     KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM SUNDAY FOR KSZ025-
     KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.