Excessive Heat Warning 1, NWS Kansas City, MO

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Henry County, MO, Holt County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1226 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2007

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

/638 AM CDT MON AUG 6 2007/
HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY PLUS MARGINAL RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN MO
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER TOPICS THIS WEEK. EXPANSIVE UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE LITTLE THIS WEEK.
PERIODIC IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND THROUGH NE/NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN IA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST KS THROUGH SOUTHERN IA
WILL TRY TO FOCUS MAINLY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE LOOSELY NIT
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHAT IS LEFT OVER FROM AN EARLIER MCV IS CURRENTLY
ROLLING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NE. GENEROUS
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 310/315K SURFACES IS BARELY ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MO DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF AC COVERING THE CWA NORTH OF
THE MO RIVER SO A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY. VERY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL PUT AN END TO THE
RAIN BY LATE MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA DUE TO PROXIMITY OF
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARLY 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL SUGGEST ANY STORMS WHICH CAN HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS.

CUT BACK HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES OVER FAR NORTHERN MO DUE
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. MORNING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 70-75 SHOULD MIX OUT A
BIT AND YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-106 RANGE. NO HEAT
ADVISORY PLANNED FOR TODAY AS I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY GRID POINTS TO
REACH THE MAGIC 105 MARK FOR THE NECESSARY 3 HOURS. TOMORROW SHOULD
BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS DEWPOINTS INCH UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL. WILL
LET DAY SHIFT DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY IS WARRANTED OR IF WE CAN GET
3 DAYS IN A ROW OF HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR MORE TO BY-PASS THE
ADVISORY AND GO STRAIGHT TO A WARNING.

MJ

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE CLOUDS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE ALL OUR TERMINAL SITES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE A LITTLE MVFR HAZE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL NEED TO DROP OFF IN ORDER FOR THE HUMIDITY AND
PARTICULATE MATER TO GET TOGETHER TO HAZE UP THE ATMOSPHERE.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO EAX

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