Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Quad Cities, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 092358
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
655 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

IAC031-045-163-100030-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-070710T0030Z/
CLINTON IA-CEDAR IA-SCOTT IA-
655 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR SCOTT...CEDAR AND CLINTON COUNTIES...

AT 654 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DEWITT TO
TIPTON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES WEST OF CLINTON TO
TIPTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SUNBURY...PLAINVIEW...MALONE SCOTT COUNTY PARK...MCCAUSLAND AND    
  FOLLETTS BY 725 PM CDT...

THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.

LAT...LON 4188 9054 4177 9122 4161 9111 4175 9032
      4191 9038

$$

DLF

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 100031
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
729 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

IAC031-045-163-100039-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-070710T0030Z/
CLINTON IA-CEDAR IA-SCOTT IA-
729 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SCOTT...CEDAR AND CLINTON
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 730 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER HAVE
WEAKENED. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CLINTON AND 
CEDAR COUNTIES AND NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTY.  THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE 
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND SMALL STREAMS AND DITCHES TO OVERFLOW.

LAT...LON 4188 9054 4177 9122 4161 9111 4175 9032
      4191 9038

$$

DLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
BRING AN END TO THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER OVER THE AREA. UNTIL THIS
FRONT ARRIVES...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE BIG QUESTION IS IF ANY HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. CURRENT CONVECTION
IS FALLING OVER AN AREA THAT CAN TAKE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAIN
BEFORE PROBLEMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...SLOW MOVEMENT OF SAID CONVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THREAT IS NOT CLEAR CUT AND WITH CONVECTION STILL EVOLVING...WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEADLINE BUT WILL PASS ON TO NEXT SHIFT TO
WATCH CLOSELY.

MODELS HAVE MAIN FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING PEAK HEATING
ON TUESDAY. MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS WELL BUT AGAIN EXPECT MORE
STRONG CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH
CONVECTION TO BE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR TUESDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE THREAT. WILL PASS THIS CONCERN ON TO
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. TEMPS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 70S OVERNIGHT WITH
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S PRIOR TO FROPA ON TUESDAY.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST SUITE OF MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO TREND AMAZINGLY QUICKER WITH DIGGING PROCESS OF
VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACRS ONTARIO AND LK SUPERIOR REGION
TUE NIGHT. THUS ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL ALSO SWEEP THROUGH THE
FCST AREA FROM WSW-TO-ESE MUCH QUICKER NOW ON LATEST SOLUTIONS...WITH
FROPA ACRS THE MS RVR GENERAL AROUND 00Z WED OR SO/ALTHOUGH THE EVEN
QUICKER UKMET AND GFS HAVE THE FRONT ALMOST EXITING THE ENTIRE CWA
BY THEN/. WITH LATEST TRENDS...WILL FOLLOW THE GFS AND UKMET WHICH
ARE SIMILAR...AND WALK OUT STRONG TO SEVERE LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE
OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
AND LOW TO MID LEVEL THTA-E LAPSE RATES SUGGEST DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 02Z-03Z OR SO. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORMS SHOULD LIMIT EVENING FLOODING
POTENTIAL...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL WEST CENTRAL IL AND
NORTHEAST MO GET TONIGHT...QUICK RUN-OFF FROM A PASSING SQUALL
LINE COULD AGGRAVATE SOME HYDRO SITUATIONS. WITH THE QUICKER FROPA...
A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF COOLER DRIER AIR MAY MEAN A BETTER SHOT OF
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY WED MORNING. WON/T GO
QUITE THAT COOL YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN WED MORNING
TEMPS.

DEEP MIXING TO OVER H85 MB AND FULL INSOLATION WILL BE NEEDED TO GET
THE PROGGED 80 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON WED LOOKING AT FCST THERMAL
PROFILES BY THE GFS AND NAM AS CANADIAN SFC RIDGE CENTER BUILDS SOUTH
ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MAY ONLY GO WITH UPPER 70S. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST SOMETHING CAN PROPAGATE DOWN THROUGH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
WED NIGHT...THE CWA SHOULD BE UNDER A FAIR WX AND COOLING REGIME
THRU THU MORNING.

IN THE EXTENDED/THU-MON/...FOR THE THIRD 12Z RUN IN A ROW...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING SOME TYPE OF WAVE TO RIPPLE THROUGH
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DURING THU AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...AND COMBINING
WITH MID LEVEL COOL POOL INDUCED INSTABILITY...DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE IN THE VCNTY DURING THAT PERIOD. TIMING
SUCH A FEATURE PROBLEMATIC STILL AT THIS POINT AS WELL AS IF THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT WITH THE RUN
TO RUN INDICATION UP UNTIL NOW...IT MAY BE WORTH INTRODUCING SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL RUNS NOT QUITE AS BULLISH WITH EXTENT OF COOL DUMP DOWN ACRS
THE WESTERN GRT LKS FOR FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND DE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SOME THROUGH MONDAY. STILL...THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH
MUCH OF THAT PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL KEEP
WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY DRY...WITH RETURN FLOW TEMP MODERATION BY
MONDAY LEADING TO A WARM UP AT LEAST INTO THE MID 80S IN MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
EASTERN HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL PROBABLY USHER ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OVER OR NEAR THE AREA...BUT TIMING ANOTHER FEATURE LIKE THAT AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION ANY CHC POPS FOR NOW.
..12..

&&

.AVIATION...
NONLINEAR PROCESSES ARE DRIVING THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED WX. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER COMBINED WITH BOUNDARIES AND VORT MAXES ALOFT TO
DRIVE TSRA DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND AGAIN WITH THE MAIN FRONT
APPROACHING TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN TSRA/SHRA
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. ALL TAF SITES LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED AT SOME POINT IN THE NEXT 24 HRS. PROBABILITY HIGH OF
SEEING IFR CIGS AND MVFR IF NOT IFR VSBYS.     ..08..

&&

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

08/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
440 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-100945-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
440 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF HEAVY
RAIN. A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS
WILL STALL AND WEAKEN TODAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT...PRODUCING
LONG PERIODS OF RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR...THOUGH THE
RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN IS LOWER WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. IN ADDITION...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WITH REPORTS OF RAIN OVER ONE
INCH.

MAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
518 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

IAZ087>089-098-099-ILZ025-026-034-035-MOZ009-010-092330-
JEFFERSON-HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-HENDERSON-WARREN-
HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIRFIELD...MOUNT PLEASANT...
BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON...OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...
CARTHAGE...MACOMB...MEMPHIS...KAHOKA
518 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

...SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...

SCATTERED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS FROM FROM NORTHERN VAN BUREN COUNTY INTO HENRY COUNTY
INCLUDING THE MT PLEASANT...UTICA AND KEOSAUQUA AREAS. THE
STRONGER STORMS WERE PRODUCING RAINFALL AT THE RATE OF 1 TO 2
INCHES IN ONE HOUR. RAINFALL AT THIS RATE COULD EASILY OVERWHELM
LOCAL DRAINAGE SYSTEMS CAUSING PONDING OF WATER AND CAUSING DITCHES
AND SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW.

THE STORMS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST
INTO JEFFERSON...NORTHERN HENRY...LEE AND LOUISA COUNTIES BY 7 PM.

DLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
525 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

ILZ001-002-007-009-100030-
JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-WHITESIDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...
STERLING...ROCK FALLS
525 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING....

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER
CARROLL AND WHITESIDE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
ONE HALF INCH HAIL. ALSO...BECAUSE THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST...THEY WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...POSSIBLY AS MUCH A 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND ALSO IN POORLY
DRAINED RURAL LOCATIONS.

DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
546 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     HAIL             LE CLAIRE               41.60N 90.36W
07/09/2007  E0.75 INCH       SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
603 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNT PLEASANT          40.96N 91.55W
07/09/2007                   HENRY              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CARS STALLED ON ROADS DUE TO DEEP WATER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
627 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             1 S DEWITT              41.81N 90.55W
07/09/2007  M0.50 INCH       CLINTON            IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
630 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             1 S DEWITT              41.81N 90.55W
07/09/2007  M1.00 INCH       CLINTON            IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&