Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Quad Cities, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 182317
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

IAC011-095-182345-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-070918T2345Z/
BENTON IA-IOWA IA-
616 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR IOWA AND BENTON COUNTIES...

AT 613 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH IN BELLE PLAINE.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 
8 MILES WEST OF GARRISON TO LUZERNE TO KOSZTA...OR ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF VINTON TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
MARENGO TO 7 MILES WEST OF MARENGO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WEST AMANA AROUND 620 PM CDT...
  VAN HORNE...GARRISON AND BLAIRSTOWN AROUND 625 PM CDT...
  WATKINS...VINTON MEMORIAL AIRPORT...VINTON AND NORWAY AROUND 630 PM
  CDT...
  NEWHALL AROUND 635 PM CDT...
  URBANA AROUND 640 PM CDT...

THIS STORM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR LARGE HAIL...AND
IT REMAINS A THREAT.

LAT...LON 4228 9206 4230 9186 4183 9190 4154 9228
      4186 9230 4228 9228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 228DEG 45KT 4219 9226 4195 9220
          4183 9218

$$

ERVIN

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 182346
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
646 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

IAC011-095-182356-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-070918T2345Z/
BENTON IA-IOWA IA-
646 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR IOWA AND BENTON COUNTIES
EXPIRES AT 645 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER HAS
MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER...THIS STORM IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN 
AND GUSTY WINDS.

LAT...LON 4228 9206 4230 9186 4183 9190 4154 9228
      4186 9230 4228 9228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 228DEG 45KT 4220 9224 4196 9218
          4184 9217

$$

ERVIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING FRONTAL COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO A WEAK SFC WAVE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MN...THEN
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST CO. BROAD PRESSURE FALLS WERE LOCATED TO
THE LEE OF THIS FEATURE...WITH MOST PRONOUNCED AREA IN FAR EASTERN
KS JUST EAST OF THE MOST DECENT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST.
W/V IMAGERY WAS INDICATING MAIN UPSTREAM WAVE OF CONSEQUENCE ROLLING
ACRS FAR NORTHWEST KS AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREFER THE 12Z GFS IN SPEED AND
HANDLING OF INCOMING FRONT...ESPECIALLY NOW LOOKING AT THE NEW 12Z
HI-RES ECMWF WHICH GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS. PLACEMENT OF STOUT
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING ACRS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN CONUS WILL
DEFLECT THE WESTERN NEB VORT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE BULK OF ITS
CVA/FORCING WITH IT TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHIFT
LIFT MAX/POS OMEGAS FROM NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THIS
EVENING...UP THROUGH NORTHWEST WI AND THEN DAMPENS THIS PROCESS AS
IT MIGRATES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOCAL FCST AREA. MIXING IN
INSOLATION SECTOR JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAIN SHOWER/CLOUD SHIELD
OVER EASTERN IA AND NORTHEAST MO HAS KEPT A LID ON SFC DPTS...BUT
HEATING HAS MADE FOR RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF
A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND MAKE IT INTO THE WEST CENTRAL OR
NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH BEFORE 02Z OR SO...PROGGED LINGERING DOWNDRAFT
CAPES SUGGEST THAT A STORM MAY BE ALLOWED TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
BRISK AMBIENT LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELD JUST TO THE LEE OF THE
FRONTAL COMPLEX...WITH INSTABILITY REALLY WANING AFTER THAT. EVEN
THOUGH SVR RISK LOOKS RATHER BLEAK...SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS TO HOLD ON ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RVR
TO KEEP SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER GOING THROUGH 06Z OR SO BEFORE
THAT PARAMETER ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING FORCING WANE. THUS EXPECT
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TO FALL APART AFTER MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE MS
RVR...AND WILL TAPER OFF POPS ACCORDINGLY. WHILE THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA MAY RECEIVE FROM .25 UP TO HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL ROUGHLY THROUGH 07Z/2 AM CDT...MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA PROBABLY WILL RECEIVE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

ON WED...FRONT TO WEAKEN AND SLOWS AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY TAKING MUCH OF THE DAY TO CLEAR THE CWA. A
FEW LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ACRS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING
ACRS THE NORTHWEST HALF. SOME LAG IN BETTER LLVL CAA SUGGESTS ANY
CLEARING WITH SOME MIXING MAY HELP TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND 80 OR
EVEN THE LOW 80S...BUT AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUD COVERED WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE 70S.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING MORE ACTIVE AND WET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

PRIMARY GUIDANCE MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN HI-RES ECMWF AND GFS AND
ALSO GEFS.  SOME INPUTS FROM NMA-WRF AND UKMET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TRIMMED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH RESULTS IN EAST WIND FOR GENERALLY COMFORTABLE NIGHT.
THURSDAY...WARM BUT NOT TOO HUMID AS SFC WINDS SLOWLY BECOME SE
BY PM.  POTENTIAL FOR MIN TEMPS STILL A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD IF THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH NEARBY FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING.  KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH PERIOD NEAR IA/MO BORDER WITH FRONT NEARBY
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE.  THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WAA KICKS BACK IN
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY WITH VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SW WINDS IN PM TO TAKE A BIT OFF THE
HEAT OFF OF 85 TO 90+F MAX TEMPS.  CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO FIRE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFT
DRY FOR NOW AND PASS FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  SATURDAY...
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO PASS WITH EAST WINDS AND HAVE TRIMMED TEMPS
WHICH STILL MAY BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO MID TO UPPER 80S TO
POSSIBLY NEAR 90.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOTS OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTH PLAINS TO ARRIVE
FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTH AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
AND HAVE UPPED CLOUDS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND ALSO UPPER POPS TO 30
MON NIGHT. HIGH PW OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND DECENT FORCING SUPPORT
SEASONALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR AND UPDATE
ACCORDINGLY.  MAX TEMPS A COMPROMISE...DEFINITELY HIGH TEMPS TO BE
LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO REST OF NEXT WEEK.    ..NICHOLS..

&&

.AVIATION...
APPROACHING FRONTAL COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL KNOCK DOWN
CONDITIONS AT THE CID/MLI/DBQ TERMINAL SITES TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM
04Z TO 11Z OR SO...BEFORE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGS BACK
VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS AFTER 14Z WED.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

12/NICHOLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
456 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-191000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
456 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM
SIGOURNEY TO DUBUQUE IOWA. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90 TODAY...COMBINED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. THE GREATEST RISK WITH THESE STORMS IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CONTINUING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SIGOURNEY TO DUBUQUE.

IAZ040-051-052-063-076-182350-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
540 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN IOWA
     BUCHANAN...BENTON...LINN...IOWA AND KEOKUK

INCLUDING...BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     BELLE PLAINE...INDEPENDENCE...MARENGO...NORTH ENGLISH...
     SIGOURNEY...STANLEY...URBANA...VAN HORNE...VINTON...
     WHAT CHEER...WILLIAMSBURG AND WINTHROP

AT 532 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELLE
PLAINE TO 43 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARTINSBURG...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WATERLOO TO 18 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LANCASTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

ERVIN