Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
TONIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN...LIKELY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL OCCUR AGAIN
ON FRIDAY AS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE
SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY AND FRIDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVIER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA AND MOVES ACROSS IOWA ALONG A 850
MB/SFC BOUNDARY. ALL SHORT RANGE WEATHER MODELS SHOW THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MODEL QPF. I
HAVE POPULATED MY QPF GRIDS WITH 18Z HPC QPF WHICH SEEMS TO BE
REASONABLE. I HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN AFFECT
ACROSS MY NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THIS WATCH NOW
INCLUDES ALL MY FORECAST AREA COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z SAT. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE SFC/850 MB BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...KUHL...
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY TROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL START OFF DRY AND LESS HUMID AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. I HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA.
...KUHL...
&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS. SFC
VSBYS COULD DROP TO 1-2 MILES IN HEAVY RAIN WITH CIGS AOB 1,000 FT.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH AND HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. ...KUHL...
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BUSY HYDRO EVENT UNFOLDING WITH MANY FCST POINTS IN FLOOD WARNINGS
OR ADVISORIES...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEYOND WHAT THE
GOING FORECASTS DESCRIBE.

NEW FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
- MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM THE QUAD CITIES DOWNSTREAM TO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
- MIDDLE AND LOWER WAPSIPINICON RIVER.
- LOWER CEDAR RIVER INCLUDING THE CEDAR RAPIDS IA AREA.
- IOWA RIVER FROM ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE CEDAR RIVER DOWNSTREAM TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
- UPPER TO MIDDLE WAPSIPINICON RIVER.
- IOWA RIVER UPSTREAM OF CORALVILLE LAKE.
- ROCK RIVER.
- PECATONICA RIVER.

FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
- MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE DUBUQUE IA AREA.
- CEDAR RIVER FROM THE VINTON IA AREA UPSTREAM.

THE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON COMBINED OBSERVED AND FORECAST
RAINFALL. THE 18Z HPC QPF FEATURED SOME SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WHICH TRANSLATED TO SOME SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN THE
RIVER FORECASTS. THE RIVERS MOST AFFECTED WERE THE IOWA RIVER
DOWNSTREAM OF CORALVILLE LAKE...THE LOWER SKUNK RIVER BASIN...THE
LOWER DES MOINES RIVER BASIN AND THE ROCK RIVER BASIN. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS HAVE BEEN UPDATED ON OUR WEB PAGE...I HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY CHANGES. IN
ADDITION...THE 00Z HPC QPF WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
..JAZ..
&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

KUHL/JAZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1055 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-241600-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1055 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO
THE AREA TODAY MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WELL. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE FROM HEAVY
RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A SMALLER RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

RISES TO FLOOD STAGE ARE OCCURRING ON ILLINOIS TRIBUTARY
RIVERS...PARTICULARLY ON THE ROCK RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE MORNING...THEN STORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING ACROSS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
PRIMARY RISKS FROM STORMS TOMORROW WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERAL IOWA AND ILLINOIS TRIBUTARY RIVERS...AS WELL AS THE
MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WILL APPROACH OR MAINTAIN RIVER
LEVELS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF
RISE WILL DEPEND VERY STRONGLY HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WHERE IT FALLS. IN GENERAL...MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON SEVERAL TRIBUTARY RIVERS...WITH
MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN REPORTS OF RAINFALL
OVER 1 INCH AS WELL AS ANY FLOODING.

MAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
708 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             4 SW MC NABB            41.14N 89.26W
08/23/2007  M0.88 INCH       PUTNAM             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MIKEZ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
744 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 S FAIRFIELD           40.92N 91.97W
08/23/2007  M61 MPH          JEFFERSON          IA   AWOS

&&

RAYW