River Flood Warning 59, NWS Quad Cities, IA

000 
WGUS83 KDVN 181639
FLSDVN
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN IOWA...

  WAPSIPINICON RIVER NEAR ANAMOSA SHAW RD AFFECTING JONES AND LINN 
  COUNTIES

.WATER LEVELS WILL STAY WITHIN BANKFULL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DESPITE
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED THE PAST DAY OR TWO.

SAFETY MESSAGE...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/QUADCITIES.

IAC105-113-181709-
/O.CAN.KDVN.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-071020T1500Z/
/ANSI4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1139 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER NEAR ANAMOSA SHAW RD.
* AT 11:15 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST CREST STAGE 12.3.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH A VALUE OF 
  13.0 FEET SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. 


$$

&& 


IN TABLE FORMAT...OBSERVATIONS AND OFFICIAL NWS FORECASTS...IN FEET.


                              OBSERVED        FRI   SAT   SUN
LOCATION                 FS   STG DAY TIME  10/19 10/20 10/21
                                             7 AM  7 AM  7 AM
WAPSIPINICON RIVER
 ANAMOSA SHAW RD       14.0  11.8 THU 11 AM  12.2  12.8  12.9

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
258 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD AIR BEING PULLED DOWN BEHIND THE STORM WILL
RESULT IN A COOL FRIDAY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THAT CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. EARLIER SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS/MISSOURI APPEARS TO
HAVE SET OFF A GRAVITY WAVE WHICH HAS RESULTED IN 4-5MB PRESSURE
FALLS AS OF 06Z ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A MESO LOW NEAR KUIN.

SATELLITE/RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DRY SLOT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHERN CWFA AROUND 12Z AND MOVE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE RESPECTABLE
PRECIP IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH. NEXT
VORT MAX COMBINED WITH WHAT INSOLATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD FIRE OFF
SCATTERED POPS THE SECOND HALF OF THE MORNING. 06Z RUC AND OTHER
MODELS ARE POINTING TO A LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
EASTERN MISSOURI AROUND MID DAY AND THEN RACING NORTHEAST ON THE
STRONG LLJ. SAID MCS MAY GRAZE THE EXTREME SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...MCS SHOULD BE STILL ORGANIZING WHEN/IF IT
AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA. THUS BELIEVE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
IS LOW BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WRAP AROUND CLOUDS/PRECIP TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
FRIDAY COULD BE INTERESTING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGER THAT
TODAY. IF CLEARING OCCURS FAST ENOUGH...HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE TO MIX DOWN. THUS POTENTIAL THERE FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES ON FRIDAY FOR WIND.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...DID NOT TOUCH FRIDAY NIGHT ON DUE TO CURRENT
ONGOING WEATHER. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER ALBEIT
WEAKER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY TIME
PERIOD.          ...08...

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z IN THE CID...DBQ AND POSSIBLY MLI TAF SITES...WHILE BRL
SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END BY 09Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT IN ALL SITES. MVFR CIGS OF 2000
TO 3000 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z...WITH TEMPORARY LIFR CIGS OF
500 FT LIKELY IN ALL SITES.  AFTER 15Z...EXPECT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS
OF 3000 TO 3500FT...WITH LOWER CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED CONVECTION.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE 5 TO 6 MILES IN LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN SHOWERS AND STORMS...1
TO 3 MILES. BY 15Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...STRONG
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST...POSSIBLY GUSTING
TO 30 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
...ERVIN...

&&

.HYDRO...
AREA RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE...WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE
IOWA...CEDAR...WAPSIPINICON...SKUNK. MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
ON THE IOWA RIVER AT MARENGO. RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN EXCEEDED
MODEL INPUT IN MANY AREAS...AND FORECAST WILL BE TAKE THIS NEW DATA
INTO ACCOUNT LATER THIS MORNING. ...ERVIN...

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-181000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
500 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE  ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. STRONG WINDS GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.  THE HEAVIEST RAINS...OVER 1 INCH...ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...BUT ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LOCATION.
LATE TONIGHT...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND
SPOTTERS SHOULD LISTEN TO LATER FORECASTS REGARDING THIS THREAT.

WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BRISK WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN ACROSS IOWA. POTENTIAL RIVERS THAT MAY BE
AFFECTED ARE THE CEDAR...IOWA...WAPSIPINICON...SKUNK...AND DES MOINES
RIVERS.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT...ANOTHER FALL STORM SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1112 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

ILZ001-002-007-009-016-180615-
JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-WHITESIDE-HENRY IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...
STERLING...ROCK FALLS...KEWANEE
1112 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH...

AT 1100 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELIZABETH...
TO CLINTON AND ORION MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT AROUND 40 MPH. THE
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
1 TO 2 HOURS AND BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE. INTENSE RAINFALL
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH A QUICK ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN JUST 30 MINUTES. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING
POOR VISIBILITY AND CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW
LYING AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1246 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

IAZ051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-015-024>026-034-
035-MOZ009-010-180700-
LEE IA-VAN BUREN IA-DES MOINES IA-JEFFERSON IA-HENRY IA-JACKSON IA-
JONES IA-BENTON IA-LINN IA-CLINTON IA-CEDAR IA-IOWA IA-JOHNSON
IA-SCOTT IA-MUSCATINE IA-WASHINGTON IA-KEOKUK IA-LOUISA IA-JO
DAVIESS IL-MCDONOUGH IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-HANCOCK IL-WARREN
IL-HENDERSON IL-MERCER IL-CLARK MO-SCOTLAND MO-
1246 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...

A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 3 AM.
INTENSE RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...WITH A QUICK ONE
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN AN HOUR. THIS HEAVY
RAIN WILL BRING POOR VISIBILITY AND CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS
AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.  IN ADDITION...SOME AREA CREEKS ARE RUNNING
HIGH FROM EARLIER RAINS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME
MINOR FLOODING.  NEVER CROSS A FLOODED ROAD.

ERVIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
234 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

IAZ051-052-063-064-076-077-180840-
BENTON IA-LINN IA-IOWA IA-JOHNSON IA-WASHINGTON IA-KEOKUK IA-
234 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ON AREA CREEKS...

HEAVY RAIN WILL END QUICKLY THROUGH 3 AM...BUT RECENT RUN OFF
COMBINED WITH WET SOILS HAS ALLOWED AREA CREEKS...INCLUDING CLEAR
CREEK IN JOHNSON COUNTY...TO RISE TO BANK FULL OR SEE MINOR
FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...URBAN RAINFALL RUN OFF IN THE LAST HOUR MAY
CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING UNTIL DRAINAGE SYSTEMS CATCH UP.  WHILE
FLASH FLOODING HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED...AND RAINFALL IS DECREASING BE
AWARE THAT YOU MAY ENCOUNTER MINOR FLOODING WHILE TRAVELING THROUGH
4 AM THIS MORNING. DO NOT CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.

ERVIN