River Flood Warning 43, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1044 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

.UPDATE...
TWEAKED FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH MINOR CHANGES
TO THE GRIDS. PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL IA. ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ON THE
NOSE OF THE STRONG/PERSISTENT 850MB JET...WITH PROFILERS
INDICATING WINDS STILL 40-45KT ACROSS OK/KS AND UP TO 30 KT IN
IA/IL. SOME 850MB CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED AS WINDS IN WI ARE ONLY
ABOUT 15 KT. AT 12Z...850MB LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER NERN NEB...WITH
SFC REFLECTION STILL EVIDENT AT 15Z ALONG WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS
IN NWRN IA. MLCAPE/CIN FIELDS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF STABILITY
NEAR THE GROUND STILL...THOUGH INSTABILITY WAS STARTING TO BUILD
IN THE MO RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE NEB/KS/MO BORDER AREA AS WELL AS
IN ERN IA/NWRN IL AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
IN THE REGION AS ONGOING TSRA MOVE INTO BETTER INSTABILITY...AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE MO RIVER VALLEY AREA AND MOVES ACROSS. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT IS STILL PRESENT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY WITH HEAVY
RAINS LAST NIGHT KEEPING THE GROUND SATURATED IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR
AS WELL AS IN THE NRN CWA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     LINN.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR ROCK ISLAND-WHITESIDE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-
     STEPHENSON.

MO...NONE.
&&

MAYES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1055 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-241600-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1055 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO
THE AREA TODAY MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WELL. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE FROM HEAVY
RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A SMALLER RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

RISES TO FLOOD STAGE ARE OCCURRING ON ILLINOIS TRIBUTARY
RIVERS...PARTICULARLY ON THE ROCK RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE MORNING...THEN STORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING ACROSS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
PRIMARY RISKS FROM STORMS TOMORROW WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERAL IOWA AND ILLINOIS TRIBUTARY RIVERS...AS WELL AS THE
MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WILL APPROACH OR MAINTAIN RIVER
LEVELS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF
RISE WILL DEPEND VERY STRONGLY HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WHERE IT FALLS. IN GENERAL...MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON SEVERAL TRIBUTARY RIVERS...WITH
MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN REPORTS OF RAINFALL
OVER 1 INCH AS WELL AS ANY FLOODING.

MAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1258 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KIRKWOOD                40.87N 90.75W
08/23/2007                   WARREN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WOODEN FENCE PULLED OUT OF THE GROUND.

&&

RAYW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
108 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W MORRISON            41.81N 90.04W
08/23/2007  E0 MPH           WHITESIDE          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIND ESTIMATED AT 50 MPH.

&&

RAYW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
109 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONMOUTH                42.07N 90.88W
08/23/2007                   JACKSON            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

RAYW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
110 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONMOUTH                40.91N 90.64W
08/23/2007                   WARREN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN.

&&

RAYW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
113 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SMITHSHIRE              40.80N 90.78W
08/23/2007                   WARREN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN.

&&

RAYW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
117 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KIRKWOOD                40.87N 90.75W
08/23/2007                   WARREN             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPUTY.

&&

RAYW