River Flood Warning 15, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS SRN
WI/NRN IL INTO NERN/CTRL IA AND BACK INTO CTRL NEB.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS ERN HALF OF
THE CONUS.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS NRN PLAINS...WITH WAVE IN WRN MN/NWRN IA AND ANOTHER NEAR
MT/ND BORDER.  MAIN UPPER JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM ROCKIES THROUGH
NRN TIER OF CONUS...WITH MAIN JET STREAK IN SRN ONT/QB.  RICH 850MB
MOISTURE HAD POOLED IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY ACROSS
THE MO/IA BORDER INTO NEB/KS...WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE EVIDENT IN WY
AND ANOTHER IN ND/SD.  AT 06Z...SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY
FROM SFC LOW IN CTRL NEB TO KSUX TO KSQI TO KVPZ...WITH MID-70S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS IA/IL/NRN MO.  CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG MUCH OF
THE FRONT...WITH SOME TRAINING ALONG THE BDRY.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE EVOLUTION OF ONGOING CONVECTION...POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND TOMORROW...AND HEAT IN THE SRN CWA.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE PATTERN BUT LOW IN THE DETAILS...WITH
PERIODS OF CONVECTION LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT TIMING
AND NATURE OF INDIVIDUAL EVENTS LESS CLEAR.  WILL PULL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO JUST NRN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES...WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
TRAINING ALONG THE BDRY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
AND MOVE EWD THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A QUIET PERIOD DURING THE
DAY IN WAKE OF MORNING ACTIVITY.  OUTFLOW BDRY FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SETTLE NEAR SRN CWA AND PROVIDE SOME
CONVERGENCE TO POP STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  AS HAS BEEN
THE TREND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ISOLATED-SCATTERED EVENING
CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORT
AFTER DARK...WITH A LULL AGAIN SOMETIME LATE TUES/EARLY WED.  MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING LATE WED AS A BETTER-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NEWD OUT OF CO...WITH E-W FRONTAL BDRY LINGERING
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND STILL PRESENT TO FOCUS
CONVECTION.  HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON WED EVENING/EARLY
THURS IN THE NRN THIRD...BUT OTHERWISE KEPT POPS IN THE SCHC/CHC
CATEGORY THROUGH THURS.

NEXT ISSUE IS THE HEAT.  SRN HALF OF THE CWA FLIRTED WITH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH TEMPS ABLE TO JUMP DURING THE DAY AS WELL AS MOISTURE POOLING
NEAR THE LINGERING SFC BDRY.  CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOWERED BY
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BDRY THIS MORNING IN THE AREA...AS WELL AS
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.  DESPITE THAT...HEAT HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND
HEAT ADVISORY IS WELL JUSTIFIED IN THE SRN CWA GIVEN DURATION.  EVEN
RATHER CONSERVATIVE DEWPOINTS AND MAX TEMPS AT LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
BRING HEAT INDICES ABOVE CRITERIA AGAIN THURS...THUS WILL CARRY
HEADLINE THROUGH 00Z FRI.

MADE NO CHANGES BEYOND THURS.

MAYES

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CID...DBQ...AND MLI ON A OCCASIONAL BASIS THROUGH 12 TO 14Z...WITH
ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAY AT ALL
SITES. BRL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT
MAY STILL SEE A ISOLATED STORM THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT AGL.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TODAY...AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS IOWA AND
ILLINOIS.

ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-LINN.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR DES MOINES-HENRY IA-
     JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-
     STEPHENSON.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
     MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

MAYES/ERVIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
445 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2007

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-080945-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
445 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. ONGOING STORMS THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND EXIT THE AREA BY MIDDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN EVENING HOURS MAINLY WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
IN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THE RISK FOR HAIL IS LOW...WITH WIND THE MOST LIKELY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD TO
GALESBURG AS OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
IN ADDITION...LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BUT NORTH
OF THE ADVISORY MAY SEE HEAT INDEX READINGS OVER 100 TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY
IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...WILL AID
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
THREATS AGAIN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER.

THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE TEMPORARY RELIEF
FROM AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY. HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH OR FLOODING ARE
ENCOURAGED.

MAYES

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
753 AM CDT TUE AUG 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNW CEDAR RAPIDS      42.02N 91.70W
08/07/2007  M1.38 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
818 AM CDT TUE AUG 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NW FREEPORT           42.31N 89.66W
08/07/2007  M6.70 INCH       STEPHENSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

LE