Alert archive / Iowa / Flood Watches in 2007
Flood Watch 2, NWS Quad Cities, IA
NWS Quad Cities, IA issued this flood watch at Feb 27, 2007, 2:51 PM CST for 13 counties in Illinois; 21 counties in Iowa; Clark County, Scotland County, Missouri. It took effect at Feb 28, 2007, 12:00 PM CST. It was in force for 25 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 27, 2007, 2:51 PM CST (20:51 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 28, 2007, 12:00 PM CST
- Expired
- Mar 1, 2007, 1:08 PM CST
- In force
- 25 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Quad Cities, IA
- Flood severity
- None
All 36 counties
Benton County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Clark County, MO, Scotland County, MO
The radar
The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 635 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WGUS63 KDVN 272051
FFADVN
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 PM CST TUE FEB 27 2007
...RIVER FLOODING AND ICE JAMS POSSIBLE INTO LATE THIS WEEK...
.ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
ARE FROZEN OR SNOW AND ICE COVERED WITH LITTLE CAPACITY FOR
ADDITIONAL SOIL MOISTURE STORAGE. BECAUSE OF THIS...NEARLY ALL OF
THE RAIN WILL RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND RIVERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING AND ICE JAMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY ICE JAMS
THAT FORM CAN BECOME VERY DANGEROUS...QUICKLY CHANGING EVENTS
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-280500-
/O.NEW.KDVN.FA.A.0002.070228T1800Z-070303T0000Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE...
VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO...
IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF...
DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD...
MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON...
GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS...
MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO...
OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB...MEMPHIS...KAHOKA
251 PM CST TUE FEB 27 2007
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SE32 30 33
MIN CHILL 30 25 22 21 29 24 20 20 24 23 26
DATE 03/02/07 SAT 03/03/07 SUN 03/04/07 MON 03/05/07 TUE 03/06/07
UTC 6HRLY 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23
EST 6HRLY 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18
MAX/MIN 50 31 43 27 40 26 41 22 39
TEMP 47 45 37 34 41 38 32 29 38 36 30 28 38 35 28 24 36 34
DEWPT 38 33 30 28 26 23 22 21 22 21 21 20 19 18 16 17 15 14
PWIND DIR S W SW W W W W W NW
WIND CHAR GN LT LT GN GN GN GN GN GN
AVG CLOUDS OV OV B2 SC SC B2 B2 B1 SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC
P
DATA LOST
Select WeatherWire Option :
---------------------------
1) WMO Header Database
2) PIL Header Database
3) Priority Codes
4) Terminal Configuration
5) Test Message
=>
** Starting WeatherWire Message Display **
(Press ENTER to view Options Menu)
Select WeatherWire Option :
---------------------------
1) WMO Header Database
2) PIL Header Database
3) Priority Codes
4) Terminal Configuration
5) Test Message
=>
** Starting WeatherWire Message Display **
(Press ENTER to view Options Menu)
OP 12HR 80 20 40 40 10 10 10 10 10
FLURRIES C C C
RAIN L L
RAIN SHWRS S C C WED 02/28/07 THU 03/01/07 FRI
UTC 3HRLY 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 0
DATA LOST
Select WeatherWire Option :
---------------------------
1) WMO Header Database
2) PIL Header Database
3) Priority Codes
4) Terminal Configuration
5) Test Message
=>
** Starting WeatherWire Message Display **
(Press ENTER to view Options Menu)
Select WeatherWire Option :
---------------------------
1) WMO Header Database
2) PIL Header Database
3) Priority Codes
4) Terminal Configuration
5) Test Message
=>
** Starting WeatherWire Message Display **
(Press ENTER to view Options Menu)
8 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11
EST 3HRLY 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06
MIN/MAX 26 31 36 45 50 52 26 30 36 43 49 53 43
TEMP 42 38 35 34 33 38 45 48 43 39 36 34 32 38 45 48 47 46 44 46 47
DEWPT 33 31 30 28 27 26 26 27 27 27 28 28 28 30 33 36 38 40 42 44 46
RH 70 76 82 78 78 62 47 44 53 62 72 78 85 73 62 63 71 79 93 93 96
WIND DIR NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N NE E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S
WIND SPD 6 4 2 3 4 5 8 8 5 4 4 5 5 6 10 14 14 12 13 16 17
WIND GUST 14 16 31 31 33 33
CLOUDS B1 B1 B1 B1 SC SC SC SC SC SC B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 OV OV OV OV OV OV
POP 12HR 10 5 10 40 80
QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0.02 0.41-0.75
SNOW 12HR 00-00 00-00 00-00
FLURRIES C C
RAIN C C D D D C
SPRINKLES C C
TSTMS C C
WIND CHILL 28 38 39
MIN CHILL 34 28 22 23 33 29 22 22 33 33 35
DATE 03/02/07 SAT 03/03/07 SUN 03/04/07 MON 03/05/07 TUE 03/06/07
UTC 6HRLY 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23
EST 6HRLY 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18
MAX/MIN 56 37 48 33 44 29 45 25 43
TEMP 54 50 43 39 45 43 37 35 42 40 34 31 42 39 31 28 39 38
DEWPT 44 39 36 32 30 28 27 26 26 25 26 27 25 23 21 23 22 22
PWIND DIR SW W SW W W W W W NW
WIND CHAR GN GN GN GN BZ GN GN GN GN
AVG CLOUDS OV OV B2 SC SC B1 B2 B1 B1 B1 SC SC SC SC FW FW FW SC
POP 12HR 80 10 40 40 10 10 10 10 10
FLURRIES C C
RAIN L L
RAIN SHWRS S C C S
SNOWSHWRS S C S
SPRINKLES C C
TSTMS C
$$
NJZ014-026-280945-
EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANDY HOOK...LONG BEACH ISLAND
349 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2007
DATE WED 02/28/07 THU 03/01/07 FRI
UTC 3HRLY 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11
EST 3HRLY 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06
MIN/MAX 32 46 31 42 40
TEMP 41 38 36 34 34 37 42 44 41 38 36 34 33 36 40 42 42 41 42 43 44
DEWPT 32 30 29 28 26 26 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 28 30 32 34 37 40 42
RH 70 73 75 78 72 64 53 47 52 59 64 69 72 69 62 62 67 76 82 89 93
WIND DIR NE N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
WIND SPD 3 3 3 4 6 9 9 8 8 8 6 4 5 5 8 12 13 17 16 16 19
WIND GUST 27 26
CLOUDS B2 B2 B2 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 SC SC B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 B2 OV OV OV OV OV
POP 12HR 10 5 10 30 80
QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0.01 0.53-0.77
SNOW 12HR 00-00 00-00 00-00
FLURRIES C C
RAIN C C D D D C
SPRINKLES C C C C
TSTMS C C
WIND CHILL 31 36 35 32 30 35 35 33 34 35 36
MIN CHILL 36 31 27 27 33 28 27 26 33 30 30
DATE 03/02/07 SAT 03/03/07 SUN 03/04/07 MON 03/05/07 TUE 03/06/07
UTC 6HRLY 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23
EST 6HRLY 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18
MAX/MIN 51 35 46 32 43 31 43 28 41
TEMP 49 46 40 37 44 42 36 34 41 40 35 33 41 38 32 30 38 37
DEWPT 41 39 34 30 27 25 25 24 23 22 21 21 20 19 17 19 16 15
PWIND DIR S W SW W W W W W NW
WIND CHAR BZ GN GN GN BZ BZ BZ BZ BZ
AVG CLOUDS OV OV B2 SC B1 B2 B2 B1 SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC
POP 12HR 80 10 40 40 10 10 10 10 10
FLURRIES C C
RAIN L L
RAIN SHWRS S C C S
SNOWSHWRS S C S
SPRINKLES C C
TSTMS C
$$
NJZ025-280945-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTIC CITY
349 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2007
DATE WED 02/28/07 THU 03/01/07 FRI
UTC 3HRLY 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11
EST 3HRLY 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06
MIN/MAX 31 47 32 41 41
TEMP 41 38 35 34 33 37 43 45 42 39 36 35 34 36 39 41 41 42 44 45 46
DEWPT 32 31 30 29 27 27 26 26 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 32 35 38 40 42 44
RH 70 76 82 82 78 67 51 47 50 57 64 66 69 69 70 70 79 86 86 89 93
WIND DIR W NW W W NW NW NW NW NW NW N N NE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S
WIND SPD 5 3 5 6 8 10 9 8 10 8 5 5 6 6 10 13 13 20 21 20 24
CLOUDS B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 SC SC SC SC B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 OV OV OV OV OV OV
POP 12HR 10 5 10 30 80
QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0.01 0.50
SNOW 12HR 00-00 00-00 00-00
FLURRIES C C
RAIN C C D D D C
SPRINKLES C C C
TSTMS C C
WIND CHILL 28 27 30 37 36 33 30 33 34 35 33 35 37 38
MIN CHILL 36 29 26 25 33 30 28 27 31 31 36
DATE 03/02/07 SAT 03/03/07 SUN 03/04/07 MON 03/05/07 TUE 03/06/07
UTC 6HRLY 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23
EST 6HRLY 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18
MAX/MIN 52 36 47 33 44 30 44 28 42
TEMP 50 47 41 38 45 43 37 35 42 40 34 32 41 39 33 30 39 38
DEWPT 43 40 37 34 33 30 29 29 27 24 26 26 24 21 21 24 22 21
PWIND DIR SW W SW W W W W W NW
WIND CHAR BZ GN BZ BZ BZ BZ BZ BZ BZ
AVG CLOUDS OV OV B2 SC SC B2 B2 B2 B2 B1 SC SC SC SC FW FW FW SC
POP 12HR 80 10 40 40 10 10 10 10 10
FLURRIES C C
RAIN L L
RAIN SHWRS S C C S
SNOWSHWRS S C S
SPRINKLES C C
TSTMS C
$$
DEZ004-NJZ024-280945-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...REHOBOTH BEACH...OCEAN CITY
349 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2007
DATE WED 02/28/07 THU 03/01/07 FRI
UTC 3HRLY 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11
EST 3HRLY 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06
MIN/MAX 32 47 32 46 43
TEMP 42 38 36 35 34 38 43 45 41 38 36 35 34 38 43 45 45 44 44 45 46
DEWPT 32 31 29 28 26 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 25 27 30 33 36 39 41 43 45
RH 67 76 75 75 72 59 49 45 55 62 67 66 69 64 60 62 70 82 89 93 96
WIND DIR S NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N NE E SE SE SE SE SE S S S
WIND SPD 4 4 8 8 9 10 9 10 11 8 5 6 9 10 12 16 17 21 24 24 26
CLOUDS B1 B1 B1 B1 SC SC SC SC SC SC B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 B2 OV OV OV OV OV
POP 12HR 10 5 10 30 80
QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0.01 0.37-0.47
SNOW 12HR 00-00 00-00 00-00
FLURRIES C C
RAIN C C D D D C
SPRINKLES C C
TSTMS C C
WIND CHILL 30 28 27 31 37 39 35 29 27 31 37 38 38 36 35 36 37
MIN CHILL 36 28 25 25 33 29 22 24 35 33 35
DATE 03/02/07 SAT 03/03/07 SUN 03/04/07 MON 03/05/07 TUE 03/06/07
UTC 6HRLY 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23
EST 6HRLY 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18
MAX/MIN 53 37 48 34 44 30 44 28 42
TEMP 51 48 42 39 46 44 38 36 42 40 35 32 41 40 33 30 39 38
DEWPT 44 40 36 33 31 29 28 28 27 25 27 28 26 23 22 25 23 23
PWIND DIR SW W SW W W W W W NW
WIND CHAR BZ GN GN BZ BZ BZ BZ BZ BZ
AVG CLOUDS OV OV B2 SC SC B2 B2 B2 B2 B1 SC SC SC SC FW FW FW SC
POP 12HR 80 10 40 40 10 10 10 10 10
FLURRIES C C
RAIN L L
RAIN SHWRS S C C S
SNOWSHWRS S S
SPRINKLES C C
TSTMS C
$$6 follow-up statements
000 WGUS63 KDVN 280343 FFADVN FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 943 PM CST TUE FEB 27 2007 ...RIVER FLOODING AND ICE JAMS POSSIBLE INTO LATE THIS WEEK... .ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE FROZEN OR SNOW AND ICE COVERED WITH LITTLE CAPACITY FOR ADDITIONAL SOIL MOISTURE STORAGE. BECAUSE OF THIS...NEARLY ALL OF THE RAIN WILL RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND RIVERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING AND ICE JAMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY ICE JAMS THAT FORM CAN BECOME VERY DANGEROUS...QUICKLY CHANGING EVENTS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-281145- /O.CON.KDVN.FA.A.0002.070228T1800Z-070303T0000Z/ /00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE... VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO... IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF... DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD... MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON... GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS... MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO... OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB...MEMPHIS...KAHOKA 943 PM CST TUE FEB 27 2007 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BUREAU...CARROLL... HANCOCK...HENDERSON...HENRY IL...JO DAVIESS...MCDONOUGH... MERCER...PUTNAM...ROCK ISLAND...STEPHENSON...WARREN AND WHITESIDE. IN IOWA...BENTON...BUCHANAN...CEDAR...CLINTON... DELAWARE...DES MOINES...DUBUQUE...HENRY IA...IOWA...JACKSON... JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...KEOKUK...LEE...LINN...LOUISA... MUSCATINE...SCOTT...VAN BUREN AND WASHINGTON. IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...CLARK AND SCOTLAND. * FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON * LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS HIGH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING... URBAN FLOODING AND ICE JAMS LATE THIS WEEK. ANY ICE JAMS THAT FORM CAN BECOME VERY DANGEROUS...QUICKLY CHANGING EVENTS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. * IF YOU LIVE NEAR A STREAM...ESPECIALLY ONE PRONE TO ICE JAMS... HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE IN CASE FLOODING OCCURS. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY BECAUSE WATER LEVELS CAN RISE RAPIDLY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND TAKE ACTION IF A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED OR FLOODING DEVELOPS. $$
000 WGUS63 KDVN 280952 FFADVN FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 352 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007 ...RIVER FLOODING AND ICE JAMS POSSIBLE INTO LATE THIS WEEK... .ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE FROZEN OR SNOW AND ICE COVERED WITH LITTLE CAPACITY FOR ADDITIONAL SOIL MOISTURE STORAGE. BECAUSE OF THIS...NEARLY ALL OF THE RAIN WILL RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND RIVERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING AND ICE JAMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY ICE JAMS THAT FORM CAN BECOME VERY DANGEROUS...QUICKLY CHANGING EVENTS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-281800- /O.CON.KDVN.FA.A.0002.070228T1800Z-070303T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE... VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO... IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF... DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD... MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON... GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS... MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO... OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB...MEMPHIS...KAHOKA 352 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BUREAU...CARROLL... HANCOCK...HENDERSON...HENRY IL...JO DAVIESS...MCDONOUGH... MERCER...PUTNAM...ROCK ISLAND...STEPHENSON...WARREN AND WHITESIDE. IN IOWA...BENTON...BUCHANAN...CEDAR...CLINTON... DELAWARE...DES MOINES...DUBUQUE...HENRY IA...IOWA...JACKSON... JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...KEOKUK...LEE...LINN...LOUISA... MUSCATINE...SCOTT...VAN BUREN AND WASHINGTON. IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...CLARK AND SCOTLAND. * FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON * LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF .5 TO 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 2 INCHES LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING...URBAN FLOODING AND ICE JAMS LATE THIS WEEK. ANY ICE JAMS THAT FORM CAN BECOME VERY DANGEROUS...QUICKLY CHANGING EVENTS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. * IF YOU LIVE NEAR A STREAM...ESPECIALLY ONE PRONE TO ICE JAMS... HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE IN CASE FLOODING OCCURS. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY BECAUSE WATER LEVELS CAN RISE RAPIDLY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND TAKE ACTION IF A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED OR FLOODING DEVELOPS. $$ NICHOLS/12
000 WGUS63 KDVN 281703 FFADVN FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1103 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007 ...RIVER FLOODING AND ICE JAMS POSSIBLE INTO LATE THIS WEEK... .ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE FROZEN OR SNOW AND ICE COVERED WITH LITTLE CAPACITY FOR ADDITIONAL SOIL MOISTURE STORAGE. BECAUSE OF THIS...NEARLY ALL OF THE RAIN WILL RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND RIVERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING AND ICE JAMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY ICE JAMS THAT FORM CAN BECOME VERY DANGEROUS...QUICKLY CHANGING EVENTS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-010115- /O.CON.KDVN.FA.A.0002.070228T1800Z-070303T0000Z/ /00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE... VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO... IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF... DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD... MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON... GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS... MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO... OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB...MEMPHIS...KAHOKA 1103 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BUREAU...CARROLL... HANCOCK...HENDERSON...HENRY IL...JO DAVIESS...MCDONOUGH... MERCER...PUTNAM...ROCK ISLAND...STEPHENSON...WARREN AND WHITESIDE. IN IOWA...BENTON...BUCHANAN...CEDAR...CLINTON... DELAWARE...DES MOINES...DUBUQUE...HENRY IA...IOWA...JACKSON... JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...KEOKUK...LEE...LINN...LOUISA... MUSCATINE...SCOTT...VAN BUREN AND WASHINGTON. IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...CLARK AND SCOTLAND. * THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON * LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE HALF TO TO 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING...URBAN FLOODING AND ICE JAMS LATE THIS WEEK. ANY ICE JAMS THAT FORM CAN BECOME VERY DANGEROUS...QUICKLY CHANGING EVENTS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. * IF YOU LIVE NEAR A STREAM...ESPECIALLY ONE PRONE TO ICE JAMS... HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE IN CASE FLOODING OCCURS. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY BECAUSE WATER LEVELS CAN RISE RAPIDLY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND TAKE ACTION IF A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED OR FLOODING DEVELOPS. $$ MAYES
000 WGUS63 KDVN 010254 FFADVN FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 854 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007 ...RIVER FLOODING AND ICE JAMS POSSIBLE INTO LATE THIS WEEK... .ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE FROZEN OR SNOW AND ICE COVERED WITH LITTLE CAPACITY FOR ADDITIONAL SOIL MOISTURE STORAGE. BECAUSE OF THIS...NEARLY ALL OF THE RAIN WILL RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND RIVERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING AND ICE JAMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY ICE JAMS THAT FORM CAN BECOME VERY DANGEROUS...QUICKLY CHANGING EVENTS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-011100- /O.CON.KDVN.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-070303T0000Z/ /00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE... VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO... IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF... DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD... MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON... GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS... MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO... OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB...MEMPHIS...KAHOKA 854 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BUREAU...CARROLL... HANCOCK...HENDERSON...HENRY IL...JO DAVIESS...MCDONOUGH... MERCER...PUTNAM...ROCK ISLAND...STEPHENSON...WARREN AND WHITESIDE. IN IOWA...BENTON...BUCHANAN...CEDAR...CLINTON... DELAWARE...DES MOINES...DUBUQUE...HENRY IA...IOWA...JACKSON... JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...KEOKUK...LEE...LINN...LOUISA... MUSCATINE...SCOTT...VAN BUREN AND WASHINGTON. IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...CLARK AND SCOTLAND. * THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON * LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE HALF TO TO 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING...URBAN FLOODING AND ICE JAMS LATE THIS WEEK. ANY ICE JAMS THAT FORM CAN BECOME VERY DANGEROUS...QUICKLY CHANGING EVENTS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. * IF YOU LIVE NEAR A STREAM...ESPECIALLY ONE PRONE TO ICE JAMS... HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE IN CASE FLOODING OCCURS. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY BECAUSE WATER LEVELS CAN RISE RAPIDLY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND TAKE ACTION IF A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED OR FLOODING DEVELOPS. $$
000 WGUS63 KDVN 011010 FFADVN FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 410 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007 ...RIVER FLOODING AND ICE JAMS POSSIBLE INTO LATE THIS WEEK... .ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI TODAY. SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE FROZEN OR SNOW AND ICE COVERED WITH LITTLE CAPACITY FOR ADDITIONAL SOIL MOISTURE STORAGE. BECAUSE OF THIS...NEARLY ALL OF THE RAIN WILL RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND RIVERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING AND ICE JAMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY ICE JAMS THAT FORM CAN BECOME VERY DANGEROUS...QUICKLY CHANGING EVENTS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-011815- /O.CON.KDVN.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-070303T0000Z/ /00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE... VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO... IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF... DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD... MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON... GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS... MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO... OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB...MEMPHIS...KAHOKA 410 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BUREAU...CARROLL... HANCOCK...HENDERSON...HENRY IL...JO DAVIESS...MCDONOUGH... MERCER...PUTNAM...ROCK ISLAND...STEPHENSON...WARREN AND WHITESIDE. IN IOWA...BENTON...BUCHANAN...CEDAR...CLINTON... DELAWARE...DES MOINES...DUBUQUE...HENRY IA...IOWA...JACKSON... JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...KEOKUK...LEE...LINN...LOUISA... MUSCATINE...SCOTT...VAN BUREN AND WASHINGTON. IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...CLARK AND SCOTLAND. * THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON * LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE HALF TO TO 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES TODAY MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING...URBAN FLOODING AND ICE JAMS TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY ICE JAMS THAT FORM CAN BECOME VERY DANGEROUS...QUICKLY CHANGING EVENTS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. * IF YOU LIVE NEAR A STREAM...ESPECIALLY ONE PRONE TO ICE JAMS... HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE IN CASE FLOODING OCCURS. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY BECAUSE WATER LEVELS CAN RISE RAPIDLY. * THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND RUN OFF MAY ALSO PRODUCE URBAN AND SOME FLASH FLOODING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND TAKE ACTION IF A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED OR FLOODING DEVELOPS. $$ 12
000 WGUS63 KDVN 011908 FFADVN FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 108 PM CST THU MAR 1 2007 ...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED... .AN INTENSE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH WINDS AND SOME SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND ONE INCH FALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...WHICH RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SEVERAL RIVERS. IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-012015- /O.CAN.KDVN.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-070303T0000Z/ /00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE... VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO... IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF... DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD... MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON... GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS... MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO... OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB...MEMPHIS...KAHOKA 108 PM CST THU MAR 1 2007 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND ONE INCH FALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...WHICH RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SEVERAL RIVERS. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS WELL BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS WILL TEMPORALLY DECREASE THE THREAT FOR ICE JAMS. $$ ERVIN
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Feb 27, 3:33 AM CST, 11 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 27, 3:33 AM CST, 11 hours 18 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 333 AM CST TUE FEB 27 2007 .SYNOPSIS... DECAYING REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW FROM THIS WEEKEND MAJOR ICE/SNOW EVENT FILLING AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER IOWA WITH SOME FLURRIES NOTED ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. SHORT FUSED TOOLS INDICATE CLEARING TO WSW OF FORECAST AREA TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO SW 1/3 TO 1/2 BY PM WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD FROM NEBRASKA. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM JUST ENTERING CALIFORNIA ON 120+ KT JET. HEIGHT AND JET PATTERN SUPPORT ENERGY MOVE EAST INTO MIDWEST NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEUTRAL ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EXCEPT IN SW WHERE SUNSHINE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE 3 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER. ..NICHOLS.. && .NEAR TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT... KEPT TEMPERATURES WITHIN COUPLE DEGREES OF GUIDANCE NE 1/2...JUST A COUPLE DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO CLOUDS. IN SW 1/3 EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS IN PM OF LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO UPPER 30S. IF THIS DOESN/T OCCUR DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO TRIM BACK...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH LIMITING MIXING THAT WOULD FAVOR KEEPING TRAPPED COLD AIR UNDER CLOUDS TO MODIFY SLOWLY. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO ALLOW MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING EAST WINDS...WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. MOST LOCATIONS MIN TEMPS PROBABLY WILL OCCUR LATE EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL NOT GO WITH NON-DIURNAL TRENDS BUT PASS FOR DAY SHIFT TO RECONSIDER. INSPECTION OF FORCING SUGGEST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FAVORABLE TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK ALSO FOR DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW AHEAD OF PACIFIC SYSTEM. ..NICHOLS.. .LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY DEAL WITH THE NEXT MID TO LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM LOOMING ON THE HORIZON. LATEST SUITE OF 00Z RUN SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SWEEP RESULTANT VERY INTENSE SFC CYCLONE NORTHEAST UP OUT OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE CYCLOGENESIS REGION...AND GENERALLY UP ACRS EASTERN IA THRU THU AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE TO ROLL NORTH ACRS WESTERN OR NORTH CENTRAL WI/DEPENDING ON SOLUTION THROUGH THU EVENING. THE UKMET BECOMES AN OUTLIER HERE AS IT REALLY BOMBS SFC LOW TO AN UNBELIEVABLE 978 MB DEPTH OVER CENTRAL IA BY 00Z FRI. THE FARTHEST SOUTHEAST TRACK OF THE 00Z GFS HAS SFC LOW PROPAGATING UP ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE MS RVR VALLEY...AND EXTRAPOLATING PROJECTED BAROCLINIC FIELDS...MAIN 150+ KT UPPER JET STRUCTURE PUNCHING OUT OF SOUTHWEST TX AND ACRS MO/WITH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT NOSE ACRS MO AND DOWN SOUTH OF THE OH RVR VALLEY BY THU MORNING/...AND UPPER LOW CUT-OFF PROCESS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PREFER THE GFS TRACK OR A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE NEW 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE GFS TRACK WITH SFC LOW. THUS SIDING WITH THESE SOLUTIONS AND THEIR PROJECT THERMAL PROFILES AND FORCING FIELDS...FIRST SURGE OF WAA PRECIP WILL SPREAD UP ACRS THE DVN CWA AS WED PROGRESSES. AT THE SFC...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED LK EFFECT EAST FETCH FROM COOLER AND DRIER SOURCE REGION TO PROMOTE EVAPO-COOLING. WITH ROBUST WARMING ALOFT AS VERY STRONG WARM CONVEYOR/LLJ IMPINGES UP AND OVER MAIN LLVL WARM FRONT...THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME INITIAL FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS PRECIP SPREADS NORTH....WITH LIGHT SNOW STARTING OUT IN THE FAR NORTH BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVELS WARM UP THERE. FOR NOW WILL BANK ON AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 TO WARM ENOUGH AT THE SFC BY AFTERNOON TO GO OVER TO ALL RAIN AND MAYBE SOME LINGERING ICE PELLETS...WITH A LIGHT ICE GLAZE FROM THE INITIAL ZR-SURGE. EAST FETCH AND LOWER DPT FEED/EVAPO-COOLING EFFECT...RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT NORTH OF I80 ON KEEPING SFC TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORY CRITERIA ICE OR SLEET ACCUMULATION OF A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE INTO WED EVENING. INTO WED EVENING...AS WAA WIND PRECIP MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA AND TURNS TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACRS MN AND WI...MAY BE BIT OF A PRECIP LULL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIP TAKES AIM AT THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENTLY ACCEPTED SFC TRACK SUPPORTS TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...AND SECOND BID SURGE OF WARM-MOIST GULF CONVEYOR FED PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT EXTENT OF SATURATED SOUNDINGS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THU MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO AGGRAVATE ANY FLOODING SITUATION...OR CREATE NEW ONES. NEW ICE JAMMING PROBLEMS ALSO EXPECTED AND WILL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED A FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. WRAP AROUND COLD CONVEYOR WILL LOOK TO MAKE THE PRECIP SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST OR SOUTHWEST-TO-EAST AS THU AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND ESPECIALLY THU EVENING...WITH WRAP AROUND LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BIGGEST GRADIENT WIND SURGE OF PROBABLE ADVISORY CRITERIA...IF THE SFC LOW MAINTAINS ITS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED INTENSE BOMBING CENTER...WILL BE THU AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE EVENING. NEXT 2 MODEL RUNS CRITICAL IN FINE TUNING THREAT ASSESSMENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA FOR ANY RESULTANT WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES. ..12.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... THIS AFTERNOON IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && NICHOLS/12
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 27, 5:00 AM CST, 9 hours 51 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 500 AM CST TUE FEB 27 2007 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-281100- BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO- CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL- HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA- JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA- MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL- SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL- WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL- 500 AM CST TUE FEB 27 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN...SO FLUCTUATIONS REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS...MAY STILL OCCUR. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT THIS STORM WILL BE AT LEAST AS STRONG AS THE ONE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION THIS PAST WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN TWO SEPARATE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY INITIALLY BREAK OUT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR...BEFORE SWITCHING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING...THE WINTRY MIXTURE IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH LATEST THINKING SUGGESTING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THURSDAY...THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT ALL RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD UP ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TYPE OF RAIN AND RUN-OFF WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN AREA RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS...WITH MANY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE FLOOD STAGE. ICE ACTION WILL ALSO ADD TO ANY RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING POTENTIAL. FLASH FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND URBAN AREAS MAY ALSO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING STORM. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR CAN INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING PRECIPITATION. STRONG WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS WELL OVER 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEHIND THE STORM. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO FRIDAY. EMERGENCY MANAGERS...HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...UTILITY COMPANIES...AND SCHOOLS ARE URGED TO LISTEN TO LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS REGARDING THIS APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. NICHOLS/12
Nearby
Flood Watches in Iowa, 2007Flood Watches in Illinois, 2007Flood Watches in Missouri, 2007Every flood watch in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.