Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
340 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
RUNNING WAY BEHIND DUE TO COMPLEX SITUATION. IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM
TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CWFA TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE WITH ALL SNOW IN THE NORTH WITH EVENTUAL RAIN IN THE
FAR SOUTH.

18Z SOUNDING SHOWED MODELS ABOUT 2C TOO WARM WITH SYSTEM. AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OR SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. AREA FROM HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR TO I-80 TO SEE A
MIX OF FZRA/PL/SN. AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM THROUGH 06Z BEFORE ATMOSPHERE WARMS AND ALLOWS
TRANSITION TO RA. NORTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES WILL LET CURRENT
HEADLINE EXPIRE AT 00Z AS REPORTS OF MAINLY RAIN STARTING TO COME IN
FROM THERE.

SNOW TO CONTINUE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 ON SUNDAY WITH RA OR MIXED
PRECIP SOUTH...TURNING OVER TO MAINLY SN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW TO
RAPIDLY TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SN ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE 10 TO 12 INCHES NORTH THIRD OF
CWFA...3 TO 8 INCHES CENTRAL THIRD AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTH THIRD.
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH THIRD MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
CWFA.

NOW FOR HEADLINES...WILL TRIM BACK FLOOD WATCH TO THE KEOKUK TO
MERCER CORRIDOR ON SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE BLIZZARD WARNING NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 THROUGH 12Z AND TRANSITION OVER TO WINTER STORM WARNING.
WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR NORTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES AS OF 00Z.
KEOKUK TO MERCER CORRIDOR DOWN THROUGH HIGHWAY 34...ICE STORM
WARNING THROUGH 06Z AND THEN A WINTER STORM WARNING. PART OF THIS
AREA MAY ONLY BE ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE
THIS.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...DID NOT CHANGE MUCH. ANOTHER GOOD SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.    ...08...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 UNTIL 6 AM
SUNDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 FROM 6 AM
TO 6 PM SUNDAY.
ICE STORM WARNING KEOKUK TO LOUISA COUNTIES ON SOUTH THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNING SAME AREA FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 6 PM
SUNDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM HIGHWAY 30 TO HIGHWAY 34 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
FLOOD WATCH KEOKUK TO LOUISA COUNTIES ON SOUTH THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.
IL...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 UNTIL 6 AM
SUNDAY. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM SUNDAY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR MERCER COUNTY ON
SOUTH. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FROM
MERCER COUNTY TO HIGHWAY 34.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR HIGHWAY 30 TO HIGHWAY 34 UNTIL 6
PM SUNDAY.
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
520 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-009
-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-251100-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-CLINTON
IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-HENDERSON IL-HENRY
IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-
JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-
MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-
STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
525 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

...POWERFUL...POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING AND DANGEROUS WINTER STORM TODAY
INTO SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VERY INTENSE STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS...MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...SEVERELY IMPACTING THE AREA WITH VERY HIGH SNOW AND
ICE ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH THIS WINTRY MIXTURE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER INCH...UP TO A HALF INCH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY FROM A
CEDAR RAPIDS...TO STERLING LINE...DOWN TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
A HALF INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION OR MORE IS EXPECTED FROM JUST SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...DOWN TO A FAIRFIELD TO MONMOUTH
LINE. SOME SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS EXTENT OF
ICING...COMBINED WITH STRONG EAST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED TREE BRANCHES AND POWER
LINES.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TURNS TO
HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH POOR VISIBILITIES OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. THESE VERY HAZARDOUS AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS WILL LAST
WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THE ROUTE 20 CORRIDOR CAN EXPECT 10 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME WHITEOUT AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DOWN TO THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BY TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AN AXIS FROM
IOWA CITY...TO CLINTON AND STERLING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7
INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...DOWN TO A FAIRFIELD TO MONMOUTH LINE.

SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD...TO MONMOUTH LINE...FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE
ACCUMULATION UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH TODAY MAY CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOW TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
FOR TODAY FOR THE FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

A BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FOR ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS...ROUGHLY
FROM MARENGO TO STERLING...THEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A FAIRFIELD TO
MONMOUTH LINE. SEE LOCAL WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS FALLING ON PARTIALLY FROZEN
GROUND PLUS THICK ICE ON AREA RIVERS WILL CREATE A SITUATION
FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FROM JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...THEN
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. INDIVIDUALS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ANY ICE AND
SNOW REPORTS THIS WEEKEND DURING THE EVENT WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

12/NICHOLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
535 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     FREEZING RAIN    KEOSAUQUA               40.73N 91.96W
02/24/2007  M0.25 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
541 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     FREEZING RAIN    KEOSAUQUA               40.73N 91.96W
02/24/2007  M0.30 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS 3 TO 4 INCHES DOWN AROUND TOWN. INTERMITTENT
            POWER OUTAGES. POWER OUT AT FARMINGTON IA WITH NUMEROUS
            LARGE TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADS.

0456 PM     FREEZING RAIN    BELLE PLAINE            41.90N 92.27W
02/24/2007  M1.60 INCH       BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FREEZING RAIN HAS CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW.

0500 PM     FREEZING RAIN    MOUNT VERNON            41.92N 91.42W
02/24/2007  E0.50 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF INCH OF ICE.

0512 PM     FREEZING RAIN    KEOSAUQUA               40.73N 91.96W
02/24/2007  E1.00 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM     FREEZING RAIN    IOWA CITY               41.66N 91.54W
02/24/2007  E0.40 INCH       JOHNSON            IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            UP TO 1 FOOT TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0534 PM     HEAVY SNOW       STOCKTON                42.35N 90.01W
02/24/2007  E2.0 INCH        JO DAVIESS         IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            2 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 3 PM. HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES. 30 MPH
            MEASURED SUSTAINED WIND AND LOW VISIBILITY.

0536 PM     FREEZING RAIN    3 NNE CHARLIE HEATH MEM 40.61N 91.87W
02/24/2007  E0.38 INCH       CLARK              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3/8 INCH OF ICE. RAINFALL TOAL 1.6 INCHES SO FAR.

0537 PM     FREEZING RAIN    MC NABB                 41.18N 89.21W
02/24/2007  E1.00 INCH       PUTNAM             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE INCH ICE ACCUMULATION. HIGHWAYS ARE TREACHEROUS. 1
            POWER LINE REPORTED DOWN.

&&

DMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
606 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     FREEZING RAIN    MACOMB                  40.47N 90.68W
02/24/2007  M0.25 INCH       MCDONOUGH          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3/16 INCH ICE COVERING ALL SURFACES

0604 PM     FREEZING RAIN    TIPTON                  41.77N 91.13W
02/24/2007  M1.00 INCH       CEDAR              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH OF ICE

&&

STEVEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     FREEZING RAIN    PRESTON                 42.05N 90.40W
02/24/2007  E0.00 INCH       JACKSON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ICE ON ROADS, WIND, LOW VISIBILITY. WHITE OUT CONDITIONS
            ESTIMATED 40 MPH WIND GUSTS

0608 PM     FREEZING RAIN    WALFORD                 41.88N 91.84W
02/24/2007  E0.50 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POLES DOWN. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING.

&&

STEVEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
735 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     SNOW             FAIRFIELD               41.01N 91.97W
02/24/2007  E1.0 INCH        JEFFERSON          IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PRECIPITATION CHANGED OVER TO SNOW. SHELTERS OPEN.
            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES/POWER OUTAGES THROUGOUT THE
            COUNTY.

&&

MIKEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
745 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     HEAVY SNOW       5 E MOLINE              41.49N 90.39W
02/24/2007  E0.0 INCH        ROCK ISLAND        IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY THUNDERSNOW 5 MILES EAST OF QUAD CITIES AIRPORT

&&

STEVEK