Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Detroit, MI

000 
WWUS43 KDTX 151709
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1209 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...INCREASED SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FOR STRONG SNOWSTORM
AFFECTING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

.A WINTER STORM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO TONIGHT AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL
SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A VERY
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ASSURES PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORM OF SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE THUMB REGION IS EXPECTED
TO OBSERVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
HURON WILL HELP TO ENHANCE TOTALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY
REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. VISIBILITY AT TIMES WILL BE
EXTREMELY LIMITED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS HISTORICALLY A FAVORABLE WINTER STORM TRACK FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE GREATER DETROIT METROPOLITAN AREA.

MIZ048-053-160115-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0010.071216T0500Z-071217T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.WS.W.0007.071216T0500Z-071217T0000Z/
BAY-SAGINAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY CITY...SAGINAW
1209 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM
EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING IN INTENSITY BY LATE TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WHILE TURNING TO THE NORTH. SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND RESULTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WILL SEVERELY HAMPER TRANSPORTATION.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

MIZ047-160115-
/O.EXA.KDTX.WS.W.0007.071216T0500Z-071217T0000Z/
MIDLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MIDLAND
1209 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM
EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY. 

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING
IN INTENSITY BY LATE TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW BEFORE TAPERING OFF. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH WHILE TURNING TO THE NORTH. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF SNOW AND RESULTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL SEVERELY HAMPER
TRANSPORTATION.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND WIND
ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS VERY HAZARDOUS
AND PERSONS SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL WHEN POSSIBLE. LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

$$

MIZ069-070-075-076-082-083-160115-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0007.071216T0500Z-071217T0000Z/
OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...
DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
1209 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 PM EST SUNDAY. 

LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME
HEAVY BY LATE TONIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO TAPER OFF.
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON SUNDAY CAUSING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SOME SNOW DRIFTS MAY
EXCEED TWO FEET DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND WIND
ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS VERY HAZARDOUS
AND PERSONS SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL WHEN POSSIBLE. LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

$$

MIZ054-060>062-068-160115-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0007.071216T0500Z-071217T0000Z/
TUSCOLA-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-LIVINGSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARO...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...HOWELL
1209 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 PM EST SUNDAY. 

LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME
HEAVY BY LATE TONIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO TAPER OFF.
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON SUNDAY CAUSING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SOME SNOW DRIFTS MAY
EXCEED TWO FEET DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND WIND
ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS VERY HAZARDOUS
AND PERSONS SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL WHEN POSSIBLE. LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

$$

MIZ049-055-063-160115-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0007.071216T0900Z-071217T0500Z/
HURON-SANILAC-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...SANDUSKY...PORT HURON
1209 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. 

LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME
HEAVY BY LATE TONIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL REACH 10 TO 14 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON SUNDAY CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES
DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SOME SNOW DRIFTS MAY EXCEED TWO FEET
DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND WIND
ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS VERY HAZARDOUS
AND PERSONS SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL WHEN POSSIBLE. LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

$$

CB

000 
WWUS43 KDTX 152151
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
451 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...

.A WINTER STORM WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD FAIRLY
QUICKLY HITTING THE EAST COAST BY TOMORROW EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. A VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ASSURES PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE THUMB
REGION IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS AS
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL HELP TO ENHANCE TOTALS.

NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW EVENT. VISIBILITY AT TIMES
WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS HISTORICALLY A FAVORABLE WINTER STORM TRACK FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE GREATER DETROIT METROPOLITAN AREA.

MIZ047-048-053-054-060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083-160500-
/O.EXT.KDTX.WS.W.0007.071215T2151Z-071217T0000Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-LIVINGSTON-
OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW...CARO...
OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...
DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
451 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY. 

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING INCREASING
IN INTENSITY BY MIDNIGHT. HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW BEFORE TAPERING OFF. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF SNOW AND RESULTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL SEVERELY HAMPER
TRANSPORTATION. SNOW DRIFTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED TWO FEET DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

MIZ049-055-063-160500-
/O.EXT.KDTX.WS.W.0007.071215T2151Z-071217T0500Z/
HURON-SANILAC-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...SANDUSKY...PORT HURON
451 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY
NIGHT...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT. 

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING INCREASING
IN INTENSITY BY MIDNIGHT. HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW BEFORE TAPERING OFF. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND RESULTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL
SEVERELY HAMPER TRANSPORTATION. SNOW DRIFTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED TWO
FEET DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND WIND
ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS VERY HAZARDOUS
AND PERSONS SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL WHEN POSSIBLE. LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

$$

CB

000 
WWUS43 KDTX 160440
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1140 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...MAJOR WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK TO BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

.A WINTER STORM WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD FAIRLY
QUICKLY TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY SUNDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL FILL IN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO OHIO AND STRENGTHENS. SNOW WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST. A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ASSURES PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE THUMB REGION IS
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OFF LAKE HURON WILL HELP TO ENHANCE TOTALS.

NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW EVENT. VISIBILITY AT TIMES
WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS HISTORICALLY A FAVORABLE WINTER STORM TRACK FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE GREATER DETROIT METROPOLITAN AREA.

MIZ047-048-053-054-060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083-161245-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-071217T0000Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-LIVINGSTON-
OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW...CARO...
OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...
DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
1140 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY. 

LIGHT SNOW WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH. SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND RESULTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WILL SEVERELY HAMPER TRANSPORTATION. SNOW DRIFTS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED TWO FEET DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND WIND
ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS VERY HAZARDOUS
AND PERSONS SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL WHEN POSSIBLE. LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

$$

MIZ049-055-063-161245-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-071217T0500Z/
HURON-SANILAC-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...SANDUSKY...PORT HURON
1140 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT. 

LIGHT SNOW WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE BECOMING MORE LOCALIZED BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM.
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20
TO 30 MPH. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND RESULTING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL SEVERELY HAMPER TRANSPORTATION. SNOW
DRIFTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED TWO FEET DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND WIND
ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS VERY HAZARDOUS
AND PERSONS SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL WHEN POSSIBLE. LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KDTX 160952
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
452 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

.A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN WHILE TRACKING INTO
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD
FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL CONTINUE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED. SNOW WILL THEN STEADILY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS ALL SNOW...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET NEAR THE OHIO BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE THUMB REGION
IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS AS NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL HELP TO ENHANCE TOTALS. THESE WINDS WILL
GUST TO NEAR 40 MPH BY MIDDAY...BRINGING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
THESE AREAS.

NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS WINDS
GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR MORE BY AROUND NOON...WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW ANTICIPATED.

MIZ049-055-063-161815-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-071217T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.BZ.W.0001.071216T0952Z-071217T0500Z/
HURON-SANILAC-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...SANDUSKY...PORT HURON
452 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.
SNOWFALL WILL BECOME MORE LOCALIZED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE STORM
MOVES EAST...BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE
HURON SHORELINE.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
TO 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AROUND NOON. WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY BY MIDDAY. SNOW DRIFTS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED THREE FEET DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

$$

MIZ047-048-053-054-060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083-161815-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-071217T0000Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-LIVINGSTON-
OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW...CARO...
OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...
DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
452 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY MID
AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH BY MIDDAY.
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND RESULTING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WILL SEVERELY HAMPER TRANSPORTATION. SNOW DRIFTS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED TWO FEET DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND WIND
ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS VERY HAZARDOUS
AND PERSONS SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL WHEN POSSIBLE. LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

$$

DG

000 
WWUS43 KDTX 161717
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1217 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

.A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
THE THUMB REGION IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL HELP ENHANCE TOTALS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING TO 35 MPH BY MIDDAY...BRINGING NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE THUMB. THE THUMB WILL
OBSERVE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING.

MIZ049-055-063-162200-
/O.CON.KDTX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-071217T0500Z/
HURON-SANILAC-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...SANDUSKY...PORT HURON
1217 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW EXPECTED. SNOWFALL WILL BECOME MORE LOCALIZED LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE STORM MOVES EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
INTO THE EVENING TRAILING THE SYSTEM. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH...GUST TO 40 MPH. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW DRIFTS WILL EXCEED
THREE FEET DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

$$

MIZ047-048-053-054-060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083-162200-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-071217T0000Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-LIVINGSTON-
OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW...CARO...
OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...
DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
1217 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINTER STORM BEGINS
EXITING THE AREA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY MID AFTERNOON
AS THE STORM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AS NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WILL GUST TO 35 MPH. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND
RESULTANT REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL SEVERELY HAMPER
TRANSPORTATION. SNOW DRIFTS WILL EXCEED TWO FEET IN OPEN AREAS DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND WIND
ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS VERY HAZARDOUS
AND PERSONS SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL WHEN POSSIBLE. LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

$$

CB

000 
WWUS43 KDTX 162111
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
411 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS WINTER STORM RAPIDLY EXITS...

.THE MAJOR WINTER STORM TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE NO NEW
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...STRONG WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35
MPH WILL BLOW THE FRESH SNOWPACK REDUCING VISIBILITIES. NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

MIZ049-055-063-170500-
/O.CAN.KDTX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-071217T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.BS.Y.0001.071216T2111Z-071217T0500Z/
HURON-SANILAC-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...SANDUSKY...PORT HURON
411 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE THUMB
REGION AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WIND
GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 MILE AT
TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW. DRIFTING SNOW WILL HAMPER SNOW REMOVAL
EFFORTS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN
TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

$$

MIZ047-048-053-054-060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083-170500-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-071217T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.BS.Y.0001.071216T2111Z-071217T0500Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-LIVINGSTON-
OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW...CARO...
OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...
DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
411 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT ALL OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES
TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW. DRIFTING SNOW WILL
HAMPER SNOW REMOVAL EFFORTS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN
TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

$$

CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1154 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2007

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A STUBBORN AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS...WITHIN THE 3000-3500FT
RANGE...WILL LINGER ACROSS DTW/DET AS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND
DEEPER DRYING OF THE AIRMASS REMAINS TOWARD THE NORTH. IN
ADDITION...AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE HURON WILL HELP FOCUS
POCKETS OF SCT/BKN STRATUS AROUND 3KFT...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
FNT/MBS AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST.

STRONG ISENTROPIC ACCENT WILL SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE TOWARD THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH CEILINGS DROPPING SOLIDLY INTO MVFR BY
MIDDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
PROBLEM OVERCOMING THE INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALLOWING LGT SNOW
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE TOWARD IFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
DTW/DET AND FNT. SNOW MAY LET UP BRIEFLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS MID LEVEL DRYING TEMPORARILY OCCURS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH CEILINGS UNDER 1000 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 415 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2007

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A 1035MB SURFACE CYCLONE IS PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL WORK THROUGH NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. THIS EVENING BEFORE EMERGING EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND GEORGIAN BAY LATE TONIGHT. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS
OF SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS WISCONSIN AND PREDOMINATELY
POSITIVE LOW TEEN (WITH SOME POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALREADY HAVEN
FILTERED IN) VALUES IN NORTHERN LOWER.

CLOUDS ARE REALLY SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
HAVE BEEN DROPPING IN CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.  MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO HAVE THIS TREND IN LOCKSTEP WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...ONE TREND OF NOTE HAS BEEN THE DOWNTRENDING IN
STRATOCUMULUS OVER LAKE HURON...WHILE GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING THAT
LAKE CLOUDS WOULD HOLD AND EVENTUALLY ADVECT INTO THE THUMB AND
NORTHERN CWA. FEEL THIS IS PREDOMINATELY A RESULT OF THE LOWERING
INVERSION AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE. THE MODELED CLOUD FORECAST
ALSO CAME IN OVERLY OPTIMISTIC WITH SATURATED MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AS CIRRUS TO OUR SOUTH IS EXTREMELY THIN.

FEEL THIS CALLS FOR A COLD FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE TAKEN OUR
FORECASTED VALUES DOWN FROM INHERITED.  GOING WITH MID TO UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FOR SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB WITH UPPER TEENS FOR
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND NEAR 20 FOR DETROIT/MONROE (LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL HELP KEEP A LAKE ERIE INFLUENCE).
THE ONLY REAL LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THE SOUTH IS THE LACK OF A
SNOWPACK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

THE BIG STORY FOR THIS WEEKEND IS THE SNOWSTORM BREWING IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE, WE HAVE CONTINUED OUR MID SHIFTS TREND IN ADOPTING A
FARTHER WEST TRACK TO THE SYSTEM. THIS BRINGS SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO A LARGER AREA OF SE MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY EVENING,
ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND
INCLUDE MUCH OF SE MICHIGAN FOR THE PERIOD OF ABOUT MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING.

SATELLITE DATA SUPPORTS MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS THAT SHOW A NEARLY
FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
STRONG UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND
TEXAS GULF COAST. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND
EAST AS NEW SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. INTERESTINGLY FOR THIS
CASE, THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN IS ONE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND FAVORS THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPENING AS
IT LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SE MICHIGAN WILL
BE ON THE NORTH AND WEST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AND FAVORED FOR A
ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW, BOTH FROM THE SYSTEM ITSELF AND FROM LAKE
ENHANCEMENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE THUMB.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL GET OFF TO A SLOW
START DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE LOW LEVELS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS DRY
AIR WILL EAT AWAY AT MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IN THE MID LEVELS, AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT UNTIL
THE LOW ITSELF ARRIVES IN THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
THE LOW ARRIVES, THE DEEPENING PROCESS WILL BRING A LOT OF THINGS
TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IN OUR AREA. DIGGING INTO THE
MODEL DATA MORE CLOSELY, THE MOST STRIKING ELEMENT IS THE STRONG
OCCLUSION THAT TAKES PLACE AS THE SYSTEM REACHES SE OHIO. THE 12Z
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WELL-DEVELOPED TROWAL ON
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE SYSTEM, OVER SE MICHIGAN. CROSS SECTIONS
THROUGH THIS FEATURE SHOW A LOT OF INSTABILITY IN TERMS OF THETA-E
AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE PRIME TEMPERATURE
REGIME SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH AND EFFICIENT CLOUD MICROPHYSICS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH A STRONG WIND FIELD THROUGH THE OCCLUSION, SUPPORTS
EXPECTATIONS OF A SHARP RESPONSE TO BOTH DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
ASPECTS OF THE FORCING. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THEN AS
THE MID LEVEL OCCLUSION ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD EVENING. SNOWFALL
TOTALS SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 6 INCHES IN 12 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND NOON SUNDAY OUTSIDE OF THE TRI CITIES REGION
WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE PROVIDED THERE
ARE NO ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE STORM TRACK.

SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE THUMB SHOULD EXCEED 8 INCHES IN 12 TO 18
HOURS, PEAKING AROUND NOON ON SUNDAY, AS THIS SYSTEM COMBINES
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE HURON. STRONG NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL TAKE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO ABOUT -12C AND RESULT IN
ABOUT 18C LAKE TO 850 MB DELTA-T WORKING WITHIN A DEEP MOIST
LAYER. THIS KIND OF LAKE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE VERTICAL MOTION, AROUND 12 UB/SEC, WILL LEAD TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL IN BANDS ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE GENERALLY SOUTH
OF HURON COUNTY, BUT COULD EVENTUALLY INCLUDE HURON COUNTY AS WIND
TRAJECTORY EXPECTATIONS CHANGE WITH TIME. TOTALS NEAR A FOOT WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN SANILAC AND ST CLAIR COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONGEST DURATION BASED ON WINDS
BACKING STEADILY FROM NE TO NW WITH TIME DURING SUNDAY.

SPEAKING OF WINDS, GUSTY NE TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL AREAS
ON SUNDAY TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT COMPONENT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM THEN EXITS CONVENIENTLY TO
OUR EAST IN TIME TO START MONDAY OFF WITH A DRY FORECAST. THE 12Z
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THEN, EVOLVING INTO FULL FLEDGED LONG WAVE
HEIGHT RISES AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE ZONAL
CONFIGURATION. THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WITHIN THIS ZONAL LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE A COUPLE OF
SMALL SCALE WAVES WITH A TRACK GENERALLY THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES CONSIDERING THAT THEY
ARE SMALL IN SCALE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL LONG WAVE
PATTERN. OF COURSE, SINCE A ZONAL LONG WAVE PATTERN IS UNSTABLE,
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE AND WHEN THE NEXT AMPLIFICATION WILL
OCCUR. THAT IS SHOWN TO OCCUR DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
PERIOD WITH THE SYSTEM PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING.  HAVE ALLOWED THE GALE WARNING AND SOUTHERN MARINE ZONE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AS SURFACE WIND FIELD WILL REALLY DROP
QUICKLY WITH NIGHTFALL.  ONLY EXCEPTION WITH BE FOR OUTER SAGINAW
BAY AND THE NEARSHORE ZONES FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINING HEIGHTENED IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

TOMORROW WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE OF APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RELATIVELY STRONG ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE HAS NECESSITATED THE NEED
FOR A GALE WATCH BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON/LAKE ST CLAIR/AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH...MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
     MIZ083...FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.

     WINTER STORM WATCH...MIZ049-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-
     MIZ070...FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WATCH...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ442-
     LHZ443-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     GALE WATCH...FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM SUNDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     GALE WATCH...FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM SUNDAY.

&&

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......CB

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
439 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2007

MIZ068-069-075-076-082-083-152145-
LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
439 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER
WEATHER MESSAGE /WSWDTX/ FOR DETAILS ABOUT THIS STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MIZ049-054-055-061>063-070-152145-
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-MACOMB-
439 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN FROM FLINT TO PORT HURON AND NORTH THROUGH THE THUMB.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
/WSWDTX/ FOR DETAILS ABOUT THIS STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MIZ047-048-053-060-152145-
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-SHIAWASSEE-
439 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR TRI CITIES PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS MOST
PROBABLE FOR AREAS FROM THE THUMB DOWN TO FLINT AND DETROIT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TRI CITIES
AREA. ACCUMULATION COULD BE A LOW AS AN INCH IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF MIDLAND COUNTY AND CLOSER TO 4 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
SAGINAW COUNTY BY THE END OF SUNDAY.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THIS STORM AND THE FACT
THAT IT WILL BE PICKING UP GULF MOISTURE...THERE REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY THAT TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INCREASED IN
LATER FORECASTS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO UPDATES AS THE FORECAST
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS REFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-152145-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
439 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS...
/MWWDTX/... /NSHDTX/.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL MARINE
AREAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS...
/MWWDTX/... /NSHDTX/.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BT

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).