Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2007

Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Detroit, MI

February 28, 20076 counties in Michigan

NWS Detroit, MI issued this winter storm warning at Feb 28, 2007, 4:05 PM EST for 6 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Mar 1, 2007, 4:00 AM EST. It was in force for 22 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 28, 2007, 4:05 PM EST (21:05 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 1, 2007, 4:00 AM EST
Expired
Mar 2, 2007, 2:00 AM EST
In force
22 hr
Issued by
NWS Detroit, MI

Counties Bay County, MI, Huron County, MI, Midland County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Tuscola County, MI

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 97 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2007-02-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2007-02-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -27 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
723 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
66 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS43 KDTX 282105
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
405 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

...A WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEND WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THIS
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE...SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE TRANSITION BETWEEN
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. REFINEMENTS WILL BE MADE TO SNOW
AND ICE FORECASTS AS THIS SYSTEM UNFOLDS OVER THE REGION. 

MIZ047>049-053>055-010515-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0004.070301T0900Z-070302T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0004.070301T0900Z-070302T0000Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY
405 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS ON THURSDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SIGNIFICANT ICING
WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE THEN EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. PERSONS SHOULD
AVOID TRAVEL ON THURSDAY IF POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS...
ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

$$

MIZ075-076-082-083-010515-
/O.NEW.KDTX.ZR.Y.0002.070301T0900Z-070301T1800Z/
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
405 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL START TO WARM CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN. LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICING IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. ICING ON
THURSDAY MORNING MAY MAKE ROADS SLICK...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE
NOT BEEN TREATED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 30S ALLOWING MOST OF THE ICE TO MELT.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ060>063-068>070-010500-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0004.070301T0900Z-070302T0000Z/
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON...
HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN
351 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY. 

A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BY
LATE TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START TO WARM...CAUSING
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...FOLLOWED
BY ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY ALLOWING PRECIPITATION
TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
ROADS SLICK LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. 
 
$$

KEK
7 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS43 KDTX 010434
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1134 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

...A WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF OKLAHOMA WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND WARM AND MOIST AIR
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THIS WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION BETWEEN SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
REFINEMENTS MAY BE MADE TO SNOW AND ICE FORECASTS AS THIS SYSTEM
UNFOLDS OVER THE REGION.

MIZ047>049-053>055-011000-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0004.070301T0900Z-070302T0000Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY
1134 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS ON
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. TWO OR THREE INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO FREEZING RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT ICING WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MIX OF SNOW...SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA. PERSONS SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL ON THURSDAY IF POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS...
ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

$$

MIZ075-076-082-083-011000-
/O.CON.KDTX.ZR.Y.0002.070301T0900Z-070301T1800Z/
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
1134 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR LESS. VERY LATE TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START TO
WARM CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION
TO FALL AS RAIN. ICING ON THURSDAY MORNING MAY MAKE ROADS
SLICK...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE NOT BEEN TREATED. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S ALLOWING MOST
OF THE ICE TO MELT.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ060>063-068>070-011000-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0004.070301T0900Z-070302T0000Z/
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON...
HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN
1134 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

SNOW AND SLEET WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY MIXING IN VERY LATE AT NIGHT. BY LATE
TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START TO WARM...CAUSING
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...FOLLOWED
BY ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY ALLOWING PRECIPITATION
TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
ROADS SLICK LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

DWD
000 
WWUS43 KDTX 010922
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
422 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...A WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM 
WILL SEND WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THIS
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE...SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TODAY. TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION BETWEEN SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
REFINEMENTS MAY BE MADE TO SNOW AND ICE FORECASTS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.

MIZ047>049-053>055-011730-
/O.EXT.KDTX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T0300Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY
422 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS THIS AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN. TWO OR THREE INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SIGNIFICANT ICING
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA. PERSONS SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL ON THURSDAY IF POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS...
ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

$$

MIZ075-076-082-083-011500-
/O.EXT.KDTX.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-070301T1500Z/
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
422 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL
FREEZING RAIN AFTER 7 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AFTER 9 AM.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO FALL
AS RAIN. THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING MAY MAKE
ROADS SLICK... ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE NOT BEEN TREATED. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 30S ALLOWING
MOST OF THE ICE TO MELT.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ060>063-068>070-011730-
/O.EXT.KDTX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-070301T1800Z/
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON...
HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN
422 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY 7 AM...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO ALL
FREEZING RAIN BY LATE MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AFTER 1 PM...BRINGING AN END TO
THE FREEZING RAIN. THEN RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF
THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
ALSO POSSIBLE BY 1 PM. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ROADS SLICK THIS MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$
000 
WWUS43 KDTX 011522
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1022 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST 
MICHIGAN...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHERN IOWA TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND WARM AND
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THIS WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES
OVER COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TODAY. TIMING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION...THE SHOWERY
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE SOME BREAKS IN THE
PRECIPITATION AND A WIDE VARIABILITY IN ACCUMULATION TOTALS.

MIZ075-076-082-083-011630-
/O.EXP.KDTX.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-070301T1500Z/
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
1022 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DETROIT TO ANN ARBOR HAVE GENERALLY
RISEN TO ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO JUST RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MOTORISTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE CAREFULLY AS THEY ENCOUNTER
SNOW BURSTS THIS MORNING...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO BELOW A MILE AT
TIMES. SLICK ROADS THIS MORNING WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. 

$$

MIZ047>049-053>055-012330-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T0300Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY
1022 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. AN ADDITIONAL TWO
TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SIGNIFICANT ICING
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE QUARTER INCH ARE THEN EXPECTED BY
LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. PERSONS
SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY. 

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS...
ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

$$

MIZ060>063-068>070-011800-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-070301T1800Z/
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON...
HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN
1022 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
AREAS FROM THE M 59 CORRIDOR TO THE I 69 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND
IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO WARM...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION
TO TRANSITION TO RAIN. THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS THIS MORNING WILL
STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A QUICK INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES. ICING OF A TENTH
OF AN INCH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

KEK
000 
WWUS43 KDTX 011800
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
100 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHERN IOWA TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND WARM
AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THIS WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVES OVER COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION BETWEEN SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. IN
ADDITION...THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION AND A WIDE VARIABILITY IN ACCUMULATION
TOTALS.

MIZ060-061-068-011900-
/O.EXP.KDTX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-070301T1800Z/
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...HOWELL
100 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 

MOTORISTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL AID IN IMPROVING ROAD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
 
$$

MIZ047>049-053>055-020200-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T0300Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY
100 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO AREAS OF SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ADDITIONAL SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER
INCH OF ICING EXPECTED. THIS MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
PERSONS SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
DAY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS...
ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

$$

MIZ062-063-069-070-012100-
/O.EXT.KDTX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-070301T2100Z/
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAPEER...PORT HURON...PONTIAC...WARREN
100 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
AREAS FROM THE M 59 CORRIDOR TO THE I 69 CORRIDOR THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND IN
THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO WARM...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN. ICING UP TO A QUARTER INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXCERCISE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

KEK
000 
WWUS43 KDTX 012116
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
416 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND PORTIONS
OF THE THUMB TONIGHT...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM IOWA TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THIS WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER
COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE...MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE TRANSITION BETWEEN SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION...THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE A WIDE VARIABILITY IN ACCUMULATION
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA.

MIZ062-063-069-070-012230-
/O.EXP.KDTX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-070301T2100Z/
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAPEER...PORT HURON...PONTIAC...WARREN
416 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAVE WARMED ALLOWING
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING TO FALL AS RAIN. SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND ICE IS NOT EXPECTED. PERSONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXERCISES CAUTION WHILE WALKING OR DRIVING ON UNTREATED
SURFACES.

$$

MIZ047>049-053>055-020530-
/O.EXT.KDTX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T0700Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY
416 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY. 

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION MAY START AND END AS SNOW
WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN.
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO LIQUID
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICING. THIS MIX
OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT. PERSONS SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS...
ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

$$

KEK
000 
WWUS43 KDTX 020254
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
954 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE THUMB REGION TONIGHT...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST IOWA TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND WARM AND MOIST AIR
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THIS WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE THUMB REGION. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
DIMINISH TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2 AM AS TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY WARM JUST ABOVE FREEZING.


MIZ047-048-053-020400-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T0700Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW
954 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. 

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AND THE
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END. THEREFORE...THE WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

MIZ049-054-055-020700-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T0700Z/
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...CARO...SANDUSKY
954 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY. 

FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 2 AM EST FRIDAY MORNING.
BY THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
AS THE CHARACTER OF THE RAIN BECOMES SCATTERED. SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ON TOP OF THE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW THAT
FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY...WILL CONTINUE TO DOWN POWER LINES AND
TREES ACROSS THE REGION. 

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS...
ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

$$


RBP
000 
WWUS43 KDTX 020709
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
209 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

...WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN OVER THE THUMB REGION...

.TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. 

MIZ049-054-055-020815-
/O.EXP.KDTX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T0700Z/
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...CARO...SANDUSKY
209 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...WHILE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 5 AM...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Feb 28, 12:57 PM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 12:57 PM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1257 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS AT THE DETROIT AREA
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT ALL AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE AN MVFR STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...REACHING THE IFR RANGE ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS SNOW...MIXING WITH SLEET LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES FOR THE DETROIT AREA
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. AT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES...A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 321 AM EST FEB 28 2007

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WE FINALLY HAVE SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ERODING THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION. THIS MAY BRING A BIT
OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I 94...BUT
THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AGAIN TODAY AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FLURRIES/PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
THRU ABOUT SUNRISE...AND THEN MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS AS VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 3 OR 4 MILES IN QUITE A FEW
LOCATIONS...WITH PATCHY AREAS OF 1 MILE OR LESS.

STILL EXPECT A BAND OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION TO FORM AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL FROTO-GENETIC FORCING EXPANDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
NEXT POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM SPINS UP IN THE PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY.
WILL ADJUST FORECAST TO ONLY HAVE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR SLEET THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW/SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH SEEMS OK FOR THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA...WHERE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF REMAINING AT FREEZING OR BELOW ON INTO THURSDAY AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER.

DO NOT PLAN ON ANY BIG CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH
MID/UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

LONG TERM...

TWO NEGATIVES FOR ISSUING AN ICE STORM WARNING NORTH OF I-69 AT THE
PRESENT TIME.

1) MARGINALLY COLD (30-32)
2) BULK OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE
   DAYLIGHT/AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THAT SAID...WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE WATCH SINCE THE
MAJORITY OF THE EVENT IS BEYOND 24 HOURS AND ELEVATED SURFACES/TREES
STILL HAVE A REASONABLE SHOT AT SEEING WARNING CRITERIA AND WOULD
LEAN TOWARD AT LEAST MIDLAND/BAY/HURON COUNTIES ACCUMULATING A
QUARTER INCH OR GREATER OF ICE.

TONIGHTS 00Z MODELS (GFS/NAM/CANADIAN GLOBAL) HAVE COME IN WITH A
STRONGER AND SLOWER SOLUTION...AS THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED TO
DEEPEN TO 977-978 MB OVER EASTERN IOWA 18Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY.
THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE 00Z UKMET CALLED FOR LAST NIGHT...AND
TONIGHTS RUN REMAINS CONSISTENT AS WELL. THIS STRONGER AND FARTHER
WEST SOLUTION...IF INDEED HOLDS TO FORM...WAS OUTSIDE ALL THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS
COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FAVORED THE
DEEPER AND FARTHER WEST SOLUTION. THOSE WINDS ARE STILL OFFSHORE AND
ARE NOT BEING FULLY SAMPLED BY THE MODELS/OBSERVATION NETWORK.
UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE LIMITED FIELDS WE HAVE TO LOOK AT WITH THE
UKMET...NEED SOME ADDITIONAL HELP FROM THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS.

NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING SURFACE TEMPS WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING 15-16Z M-59/I-69 CORRIDORS...THEN STRUGGLING NORTH OF
I-69...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING ABOVE 32 DEGREES 18-21Z...EXCEPT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...DONT LIKE THE FACT THE BULK OF THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN IS JUST MARGINALLY COLD AND DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE AIRMASS. TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL
FEED SOME COLDER AIR FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT THE REAL GOOD COLD
AIR IS CONFINED TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS
ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE...SAGINAW BAY AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON ARE STILL LIKELY FROZEN WHICH SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN TEMPS AOB FREEZING FOR A WHILE.

PRECIPITATION ALL BUT A GIVEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (AS SEEN ON DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE)
OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A VERY GOOD SURGE OF
MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION WITH WELL DEFINED 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS SWINGING THROUGH JUST AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. A CHANCE/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH SHOWALTER INDEX FALLING TO
NEAR ZERO AND K INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 20S C...PER
CONSERVATIVE UKMET. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM ARE INDICATING
GREATER INSTABILITY...BUT NAM IS LIKELY A BIT TOO MOIST INDICATING
850 MB DEW POINTS OF +7 TO +8.5 C OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA.

WEAKENING (QUICKLY FILLING) STORM SYSTEM TO SLOWLY TRACK THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE-SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS 850 MB TEMPS
FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE LOWER TEENS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ABOUT 10
PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...THE GFS LOOKS TO BE OUTLIER WITH THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. 00Z EUROPEAN/GLOBAL
CANADIAN BOTH INDICATING A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN OUR RELATIVELY COLD MAXES LOOK
GOOD...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAXES 5+ DEGREES WARMER...CLOSER TO NORMAL.
EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE ANTICIPATED AND THE MAJORITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-
     MIZ055...4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...NORTH HALFGALE WARNING...LHZ421-LHZ441-LHZ442-SOUTH HALF...7 AM
     THURSDAY TO 1 AM FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LHZ422-LHZ443-SOUTH HALF...7 AM
     THURSDAY TO 1 AM FRIDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LCZ423-LCZ460...7 AM THURSDAY
     TO 10 PM THURSDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LEZ444...7 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM
     THURSDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...KEK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 28, 4:28 AM EST, 11 hours 37 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
428 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007

MIZ047>049-053>055-010930-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
428 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST URGENT WINTER WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR DETAILS /WSWDTX/.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST URGENT WINTER WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR DETAILS /WSWDTX/.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE MIDWEST TOMORROW...AND INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MIZ060>063-068>070-010930-
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
428 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ALONG THE I 69 AND M 59 CORRIDORS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING.

A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS THEN LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SOME SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY MORNING WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY
NOON...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE MIDWEST TOMORROW...AND INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MIZ075-076-082-083-010930-
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
428 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF EIGHT
MILE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE MIDWEST TOMORROW...AND INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441>443-462>464-010930-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE-OUTER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
428 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ST CLAIR...THE MICHIGAN
WATERS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE HURON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

The office that day

Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 4:05 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryDTXGenesee, Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, Saint Clair and 1 more24 hr
Feb 28, 4:05 PM ESTFreezing Rain AdvisoryDTXLenawee, Monroe, Washtenaw, Wayne18 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2007Every winter storm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.