Wind Advisory 5, NWS Detroit, MI

000 
WWUS73 KDTX 232001
NPWDTX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
401 PM EDT MON APR 23 2007

...STRONG WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE INTO THE EVENING...

.STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS AIDING IN INCREASED
WINDS HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...THE AREAS OF SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH FURTHER EASTWARD HELPING TO
EASE THE ACTIVITY.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-232115-
/O.EXP.KDTX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070423T2000Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
401 PM EDT MON APR 23 2007

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. 

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING IT IS
EXPECTED THAT WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY.  UNTIL THEN...GUSTS OF
35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.

$$

CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
715 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007

.AVIATION...

AS A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA AND BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PRETTY MUCH BYPASS THE FORECAST SITES
THIS MORNING...AND WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL
16Z-17Z OR SO...WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 246 AM

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH MOISTURE AT A PREMIUM PER 00Z KDTX SOUNDING...AND A MEAGER
RADAR REPRESENTATION OF SHOWERS SO FAR...PLAN ON BACKING OFF ON THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM 80% TO 60% TODAY AS ACTIVITY THAT DOES OCCUR
SHOULD BE RATHER HIT AND MISS MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS NOT
TOO IMPRESSIVE EITHER GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL
AS INSOLATION WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS LIFT INCREASES ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH WELL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES LAKE HURON LATE TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BY THIS EVENING.

INITIAL ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
OVER THE AREA...AND FUNNELS MORE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA.
THE SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER
LIMITED DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY.

HOWEVER...IF SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR IN BEHIND THE FIRST
WAVE OF SHOWERS...HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW STORMS WITH
WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG
ATMOSPHERIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.

LONG TERM...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS POTENTIALLY FALLING SHORT OF
50 DEGREES AS A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD FAR SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER ON
TUESDAY AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. 00Z RAOB OUT OF PICKLE LAKE IN ONTARIO CAME IN WITH AN 850 MB
TEMP OF 2 C...INDICATIVE OF THE AIRMASS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION. 00Z UKMET/GFS/NAM ALL INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS OF
2.5 TO 4.5 C OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS. WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY...WOULD EXPECT
MAXES IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. DID UNDERCUT
GFS MOS GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES BASED ON THE INCREASE/THICKENING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY OFF LAKE HURON.

SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE COLD AIR TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TIGHT 850 MB BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HINGE ON THE INTERACTION
OVER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM SYSTEM...WITH ONE WAVE
FORECASTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY.

STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN (700 MB) FORECASTED OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO RAIN...PER GFS/NAM/CANADIAN GLOBAL.
ALTHOUGH...HAVE NOTED THE 00Z UKMET WHICH IS MUCH DRIER OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED MORE WITH THE
SFC-850 MB FRONT WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE BORDER. AT THIS
POINT...PLANNING ON LEANING TOWARD THE WETTER MAJORITY
SOLUTIONS...BUT CERTAINLY THINK THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND IS OVERDOING OR NOT WEAKENING FAST ENOUGH
THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVES.

DID PULL THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY EVENING...AS ALL MODELS
SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...GOING POPS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL JUST MAKE A FEW TWEAKS.
DID LOWER MAXES ON WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE EXPECTED 850 MB
TEMPS OF 1 TO 4 C...THICK CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...ALONG WITH THE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. USED THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH CALLS FOR
MAXES PREDOMINATELY IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

IN THE WAVES WAKE...LOW LEVEL DRY WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN LAKES SINKS FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
RIDGING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY...BUT
COOL DAY (50S)...AS 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 2 C.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460...10 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM
     MONDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444...10 AM MONDAY
     TO 8 PM MONDAY.

&&

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
420 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-240900-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
420 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOVEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST
AT 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441>443-462>464-240900-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE-OUTER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
420 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ST CLAIR...THE MICHIGAN
WATERS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE HURON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL
8 PM THIS EVENING FOR LAKE ST CLAIR AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF
LAKE ERIE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS
WILL BE EAST AT 35 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).