Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
326 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAS BEEN PRIMED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXCEPTION IS OVER BAY AND MIDLAND COUNTIES...AND OVER
SAGINAW BAY WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE FRONT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MICHIGAN. ACTIVITY AND THE FRONT WILL
BOTH TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP HAS BEEN ERODED AND SB CAPE
VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AS SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY A COUPLE OF VORT MAXES THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN-MOST PART OF THE STATE. THE
FIRST IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND THE SECOND ONE IS BACK OVER NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS.

SHOWERS AND SOME STRATUS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...AS HAS
ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED FURTHER NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER. AS THIS HIGH SETTLES TO THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND BRUSH THE AREA. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR THE MOST PART AS MOST OF THE ENERGY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR THE TIME BEING.

WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MUCH OF THE FORECAST...THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
HIGHS WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON INTO LAKE ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH BUILDING WAVES
EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
BE HOISTED FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS PERSISTS...AND WAVES RANGE
GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 146 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

AVIATION...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TERMINALS...PARTICULARLY FNT DET AND DTW.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...IN
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A QUICK FLIP TO NORTH WINDS. RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
AS THE AIRMASS COOLS. &&

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     FRIDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...OROW
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......OROW
AVIATION.....OROW

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
314 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

MIZ049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-301000-
HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST.
CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
314 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MARGINALLY SEVERE
SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MIZ047-048-301000-
MIDLAND-BAY-
314 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441>443-462>464-301000-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE-OUTER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
314 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ST CLAIR...THE MICHIGAN
WATERS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE HURON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MARGINALLY SEVERE
SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

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