Alert archive / Michigan / Ice Storm Warnings in 2007

Ice Storm Warning 2, NWS Detroit, MI

December 8, 2007Lenawee County, Monroe County, Michigan

NWS Detroit, MI issued this ice storm warning at Dec 8, 2007, 10:56 PM EST for Lenawee County, Monroe County, Michigan. It took effect at Dec 9, 2007, 4:00 AM EST. It was in force for 12 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 8, 2007, 10:56 PM EST (03:56 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 9, 2007, 4:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 9, 2007, 4:10 PM EST
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Detroit, MI

Counties Lenawee County, MI, Monroe County, MI

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2007-12-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2007-12-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 62 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1404 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
85 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
62 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS43 KDTX 090356
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1056 PM EST SAT DEC 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT ADVECTS INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ANN ARBOR TO DETROIT...WHILE SNOW AND
SLEET WILL BE MORE DOMINATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN DETROIT
SUBURBS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER INCH OR GREATER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAY APPROACH 2
OR 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A HOWELL TO MARINE CITY LINE. THE 
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

MIZ082-083-091200-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0008.071209T1200Z-071210T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.IS.W.0002.071209T0900Z-071210T0300Z/
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ADRIAN...MONROE
1056 PM EST SAT DEC 8 2007

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED AN ICE
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN THEN EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
COMING TO AN END. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER INCH OR GREATER
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT
ADD TO THE DANGER.

$$

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-091200-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.A.0008.071209T1200Z-071210T0300Z/
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...
WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT
1056 PM EST SAT DEC 8 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. 

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE DETROIT AND
ANN ARBOR AREAS BY AROUND 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THE FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS LIVINGSTON...OAKLAND AND
MACOMB COUNTIES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE COMING TO AN END AND IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF M 59.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

DG
5 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS43 KDTX 090922
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
422 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND ICING
EXPECTED TODAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WARM AIR WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IN
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM ANN ARBOR TO DETROIT...WHILE SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER INCH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAY APPROACH 2 OR 3
INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A HOWELL TO MARINE CITY LINE...ALONG
WITH A LIGHTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

MIZ082-083-091730-
/O.EXT.KDTX.IS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-071210T0300Z/
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ADRIAN...MONROE
422 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...ICE STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH COULD BE MIXED BRIEFLY WITH SLEET AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET. THE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING A DIMINISHING TREND INTO THIS EVENING.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER INCH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

ICE ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED SURFACES WILL MAKE TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER
LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE DANGER.

$$

MIZ075-076-091730-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0008.071209T1200Z-071210T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.071209T0922Z-071210T0300Z/
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT
422 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY AROUND 7 AM
THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY BECOME A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS BUT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
SLEET. ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. UNTREATED ROADS AND
WALKING SURFACES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING OR ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

$$

MIZ063-068>070-091730-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0008.071209T1200Z-071210T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.071209T0922Z-071210T0300Z/
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN
422 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AROUND 7 AM AND
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING.
PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED BUT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SLEET AND
ABOUT A TENTH INCH OF ICING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. UNTREATED ROADS AND
WALKING SURFACES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING OR ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.


$$

BT
000 
WWUS43 KDTX 091253
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
753 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND ICING EXPECTED
TODAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE
OVER SOUTH PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WARM AIR WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED...
AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ANN
ARBOR TO DETROIT...WHILE SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE MORE COMMON ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS...BUT WITH FREEZING RAIN STILL
POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER INCH OR GREATER
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS MAY APPROACH 2 OR 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A
HOWELL TO MARINE CITY LINE...ALONG WITH A LIGHTER MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AND THEN END OVERNIGHT.

MIZ082-083-092100-
/O.CON.KDTX.IS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-071210T0300Z/
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ADRIAN...MONROE
753 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 8 AM
AND 10 AM THIS MORNING AND THEN WILL LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER INCH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEFORE THE PATTERN WEAKENS THIS EVENING.

ICE ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED SURFACES WILL MAKE TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER
LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE DANGER.

$$

MIZ075-076-092100-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-071210T0300Z/
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT
753 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BETWEEN 8 AM AND 10 AM THIS MORNING...CLOSER TO 10 AM FOR THE
IMMEDIATE CITY OF DETROIT...AND THEN LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. 
ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...
AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. UNTREATED ROADS
AND WALKING SURFACES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING OR ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

$$

MIZ063-068>070-092100-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-071210T0300Z/
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN
753 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 8 AM
AND 10 AM THIS MORNING...CLOSER TO 10 AM FOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN
PONTIAC AND PORT HURON. SNOW AND SLEET WILL THEN BECOME MORE OF A
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIX THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED BUT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SLEET AND
ABOUT A TENTH INCH OF ICING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...
AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. UNTREATED ROADS
AND WALKING SURFACES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING OR ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

$$

BT
000 
WWUS43 KDTX 091629
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1129 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...FREEZING RAIN WILL BRING SLICK CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE... CAUSING A
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH
SNOW OR SLEET. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AND THEN END OVERNIGHT.

MIZ068-091730-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-071210T0300Z/
LIVINGSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HOWELL
1129 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF
LIVINGSTON COUNTY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY MINIMAL ICING IS EXPECTED. 

ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD STILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISES CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE ROADWAYS APPEARS WET. 
 
$$

MIZ082-083-100015-
/O.CON.KDTX.IS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-071210T0300Z/
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ADRIAN...MONROE
1129 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SLEET MIXING INTO THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A
QUARTER INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE PRECIPITATION
WEAKENS THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ICE ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED SURFACES WILL MAKE TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY DANGEROUS. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THIS
AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER
LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE DANGER.

$$

MIZ075-076-100300-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-071210T0300Z/
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT
1129 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX INTO THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH
LOCALLY UP TO TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY. AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKING
SURFACES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING OR ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

$$

MIZ063-069-070-100300-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-071210T0300Z/
ST. CLAIR-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HURON...PONTIAC...WARREN
1129 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT
ALTHOUGH SLEET OR SNOW MAY MIX INTO ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. MINIMAL
ICING UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OAKLAND...MACOMB...AND ST CLAIR
COUNTIES...GENERALLY SOUTH OF M-59. ANY SNOW OR SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...
AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. UNTREATED ROADS
AND WALKING SURFACES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING OR ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

$$

KEC
000 
WWUS43 KDTX 091820
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
120 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...FREEZING RAIN WILL BRING SLICK CONDITIONS TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...
CAUSING A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH SNOW OR SLEET. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AND THEN END OVERNIGHT.

MIZ063-069-070-075-091930-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-071210T0300Z/
ST. CLAIR-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HURON...PONTIAC...WARREN...
ANN ARBOR
120 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED FOR AREAS FROM ANN ARBOR
TO PONTIAC TO PORT HURON. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES. ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THOUGH...THUS THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE UPPER 20S...ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD STILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE ROADWAYS APPEAR WET.

$$

MIZ082-083-092300-
/O.EXT.KDTX.IS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-071209T2300Z/
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ADRIAN...MONROE
120 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...ICE STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE ICE STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SLEET AND SNOW MIXING INTO THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
ICE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED EAST OF I 75.
PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH PATCHY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ICE ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED SURFACES WILL MAKE TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY DANGEROUS. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THIS
AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER
LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE DANGER.

$$

MIZ076-092300-
/O.EXT.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-071209T2300Z/
WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...DETROIT
120 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...TAPERING
OFF TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY...GENERALLY SOUTH OF DEARBORN. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WAYNE AND MONROE COUNTY LINE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKING
SURFACES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING OR ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

$$

KEC
000 
WWUS43 KDTX 092110
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
410 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

.THE BAND OF MODERATE FREEZING RAIN OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN HAS MOVED EAST INTO OHIO LEAVING AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING PATCHY
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT ALLOWING UNTREATED ROADWAYS TO REMAIN SLICK. 

MIZ082-083-092300-
/O.CAN.KDTX.IS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-071209T2300Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-071209T2300Z/
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ADRIAN...MONROE
410 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...ICE STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN HAS PULLED OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING AREAS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. NO ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES MAY CONTINUE TO BECOME SLICK. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
LIGHT DRIZZLE TO RETURN OVERNIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. UNTREATED ROADS AND
WALKING SURFACES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING OR ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

$$

MIZ076-092300-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-071209T2300Z/
WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...DETROIT
410 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN HAS PULLED OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING AREAS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. NO ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES MAY CONTINUE TO BECOME SLICK. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
LIGHT DRIZZLE TO RETURN OVERNIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. UNTREATED ROADS AND
WALKING SURFACES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING OR ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this ice storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this ice storm warning went out at Dec 8, 6:16 PM EST, 4 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 8, 6:16 PM EST, 4 hours 40 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
616 PM EST SAT DEC 8 2007

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS THE FEEDING BANDS OF
FRONTOGENETIC LIFT FOCUS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS...ALSO
EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. AFTER A BRIEF LULL AROUND DAYBREAK
EXPECT A MORE PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN KDTW/KDET...SNOW
AND SLEET KFNT AND PRIMARILY SNOW KMBS. AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE FORECAST...MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE MIXED THE THE LIGHT SNOW/SLEET. CEILINGS WILL EDGE INTO THE
MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT...PROBABLY DROPPING BELOW 1000 FEET DURING
PARTS OF SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY KDTW/KDET...WHERE THE BETTER FOCUS FOR
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EST SAT DEC 8 2007

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
WITH DRY AIRMASS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 850-700MB FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME
LIGHT ECHOS...HOWEVER NONE OF THESE ARE REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS
TIME. 700MB WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...LIFTING THE FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. LIGHT PRECIPITATION GENERATED BY THE ELEVATED FRONT WILL
WORK TO MOISTEN AND COOL THE COLUMN BEFORE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE
GROUND. THIS NARROW BAND OF 700MB FGEN/DEFORMATION IS STRONGER OVER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WEST
OF ROUTE 23 TONIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...IT
SHOULD TAKE A WHILE TO SEE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. THE GFS SHOWS
THE MOST QPF OVERNIGHT...WITH AROUND .08 INCH NEAR THE OHIO BORDER.
THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AND AM CONCERNED IT IS TRYING TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS TOO FAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
STRONG SURFACE HIGH. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR ALL BUT OUR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANCE THAT THE THUMB MAY
NOT SEE ANY SNOW TONIGHT. WILL EXPECT ANY SNOW OVERNIGHT TO BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING WHERE IT OCCURS AT ALL.

BY LATE TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR LIFTING INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. AM CONCERNED THAT
THIS MAY LIMIT ICE NUCLEATION IN THE CLOUD...LEAVING US WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT UP
FROM THE SOUTH. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT .02 OR
LESS...AND THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY
WHEN MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING/SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE ANALYZED OVER THE SOUTHERN
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN AS A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW US LIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
BECOME QUITE ROBUST BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS LIFT
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE CLASH OF A
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
TO THE NORTH WILL MAXIMIZE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MI
AND NORTHERN IN/OH BY 18Z SUN. NAM CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS THROUGH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWS A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF INSTABILITY
ALOFT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT INVOLVES
EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT IS GOING TO BECOME MOST ACTIVE AND HENCE
WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO FALL. AT THIS
POINT...THE UKMET...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST QPF
SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE GFS HOWEVER SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL BECOME
QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
THE HEAVIEST QPF ON THE NAM EXTENDS FROM DETROIT SOUTH INTO IN/OH.

DESPITE THESE DISCREPANCIES...MODEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR. BOTH NAM AND GFS ALSO HAD A REASONABLE INITIALIZATION OF
THE 925-700MB FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED WARM LAYER ADVECTING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN MORNING. THE MAIN TRENDS IN THE
12Z SUITE HOWEVER HAVE BEEN COLDER HEADING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
DETROIT SUBURBS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY FREEZING RAIN FROM DETROIT SOUTH...HAVE
ADJUSTED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD ALONG THE M-59
CORRIDOR...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE. THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL DECREASE NORTHWARD INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY DUE
TO DRIER AIR AND LESS FORCING.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE MESO SCALE ASPECTS OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM ARE GOING TO UNFOLD AT THIS EARLY STAGE OF THE
FORECAST...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL JUST
ADJUST THE TIMING FOR AFTER 12Z SUN AND WILL INCLUDE ST CLAIR COUNTY
IN THE WATCH WITH SOME CONCERN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVY PRECIP.

HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SYSTEM
STILL LOOKS TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE...WHICH PLACES THE LOW LEVEL FRONT AND HEAVIEST PRECIP
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND UKMET HOWEVER SHOW
MORE PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN TROUGH AND ARE HENCE MUCH WARMER AND
MORE ROBUST WITH THE QPF OVER SE MI...SUGGESTING ALMOST ENTIRELY A
RAIN EVENT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE MADE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...DUE THINK THERE IS A BETTER POTENTIAL THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN...PARTICULARLY
IN THE DETROIT AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

BOTH INTRAMODEL AND INTERMODEL VARIABILITY REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY
LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM IN THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THE PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY ACTIVE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT THE EVENTUAL IMPACT OF THIS DAY 5 SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS IT RELATES TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS MODEL HAS
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT ON ITS
INCONSISTENCY OF PRECIP TYPE. OFF-HOUR RUNS HAVE SUPPORTED A TRACK
CLOSER TO CLEVELAND AND A MUCH COLDER SOLUTION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AS OPPOSED TO A TRACK CLOSER TO FLINT AND SUPPORTIVE OF MORE
LIQUID THAN FROZEN PRECIP. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE GFS IS REALLY
AN OUTLIER WITH THIS HIGHLY SUSPECT SOLUTION. IT WILL ULTIMATELY
COME DOWN TO IF AND WHERE THE COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TUESDAY SYSTEM...STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND THUS MUCH MORE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL GENERATE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS SOLUTION OF A TRACK CLOSER TO BALTIMORE HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE WRFHEMI AND GEM. WITH THAT SAID...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
STRENGTH OF THE VERY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...DROPPING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME...WILL FORCE A MORE
EASTWARD TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS AWAY
FROM SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL USHER IN
COLD AIR AND PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AS WE END THE WEEK AND HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE UNSTABLE LAKE CONTINUE TO CAUSE HIGHER WAVES ON THE
EXTREME OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO
HARBOR BEACH. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY
ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SETTING UP ON LAKE ERIE. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA DESPITE THE FAVORABLE FETCH. HOWEVER, A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER MARINE
CONDITIONS STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH...MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-
     MIZ082-MIZ083...FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM SUNDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...UNTIL 11 PM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM....SC/JDS
MARINE.......KEC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 8, 3:50 PM EST, 7 hours 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 PM EST SAT DEC 8 2007

MIZ047>049-053>055-092100-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
350 PM EST SAT DEC 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

MIZ060>062-092100-
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
350 PM EST SAT DEC 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-092100-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
350 PM EST SAT DEC 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I 94 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE /WSWDTX/ FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-092100-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
350 PM EST SAT DEC 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING FOR OUTER SAGINAW
BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO
HARBOR BEACH. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NEARSHORE FORECAST
/NSHDTX/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

The office that day

Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 9, 4:22 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryDTXLenawee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Saint Clair and 2 more14 hr

Nearby

Ice Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2007Every ice storm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.