Severe Thunderstorm Warning 368, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 140910
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
410 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

IAC003-173-140930-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0368.000000T0000Z-071014T0930Z/
TAYLOR IA-ADAMS IA-
410 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS AND NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTIES...

AT 405 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHARPSBURG...OR ABOUT 38 
MILES NORTH OF MARYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PRESCOTT BY 420 AM CDT...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4070 9492 4084 9493 4089 9491 4108 9448
      4084 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 224DEG 34KT 4091 9468

$$

ALBRECHT

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 140931
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
432 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

IAC003-173-140942-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0368.000000T0000Z-071014T0930Z/
TAYLOR IA-ADAMS IA-
432 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS AND
NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 430 AM CDT...

AT 427 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4070 9492 4084 9493 4089 9491 4108 9448
      4084 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 224DEG 34KT 4091 9468

$$

ALBRECHT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 14/06Z.

.SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH
DEEPENING SFC LOW IN SE COLORADO.  AMPLE MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
HAVE SEEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SFC BOUNDARY IN N
KS AND MO.  OTHERWISE...LOW CLDS AND SOME PATCHY MIST REMAINS ACRS
MUCH OF CENTRAL IA IN EASTERLY SFC FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLOW EVOLUTION OF WESTERN TROF AS IT
EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.  MOISTURE WL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AS DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO TOWARD IA.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD AND SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE STATE.  EXPECT TO SEE EXPANDING PCPN INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING
AS LLJ FOCUSES INTO THE STATE WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION.  WL
KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH CONTINUED FORCING
ALLOWING PCPN TO KEEP GOING.  FRONT WL BOG DOWN ACRS CNTRL/SOUTHERN
IA ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS SFC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  THIS WL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME.  CATEGORICAL POPS WL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.  UPPER LOW WL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE LOW IN A REX
BLOCK FORMATION.  LINGERING THREAT OF PCPN WL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AS STACKED SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST ACRS THE STATE.  WL HAVE ONLY
SHORT BREAK AS STRONG PAC JET PUSHES NEXT IN SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
INTO THE MID SECTION TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  STILL
HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF SYSTEM AND EXTENT OF
DEEPENING...BUT STILL APPEARS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME FOR LARGEST IMPACT.  HAVE CONTINUED THREAT OF PCPN DURING
THIS TIME AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ESF WILL REMAIN AS THREAT FOR LONG DURATION RAIN EVENT PERSISTS.
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WL PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.  QPF REMAINS FROM ONE AND A
HALF TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL
POSSIBLE. FOCUS WL REMAIN ACRS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS WELL
AS THE MISSOURI WATERSHED IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA.  PWATS TO REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY HIGH FROM 1.25-1.5 INCHES WITH HIGH PCPN EFFICIENCY
WITH DEEP SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION WL ALSO ADD TO THREAT OF
ISOLATED HIGH AMOUNTS.  FLOOD WATCH MAY LIKELY BE NEEDED IF
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW.

&&

.AVIATION...14/06Z
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NE AND KS THIS EVENING.
RUC MODEL AND GFS SHOWING TREMENDOUS LIFT ALONG THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IA TNT. STORMS BLOSSOMING IN NE
WILL BE TIED TO BOUNDARY AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
EASTWARD INTO THE STATE WITH TIME. CONSEQUENTLY...CIGS WILL LOWER
OR REMAIN IN IFR CAT FOR MUCH OF NORTH THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION GIVES WAY TO STRATIFORM STEADY RAINFALL IN MORE STABLE
AIRMASS TO THE NORTHEAST. VSBYS ALSO EXPECTED TO CRASH AND REMAIN
IN THE IFR CATEGORY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE PERIOD. OVER THE
SOUTH...AS BOUNDARY LIFTS BKN MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE PM
HOURS NEAR KDSM AND KOTM. PSBL THUNDER LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. VCTS COVERS BEST
THERE. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...DONAVON/REV
LONG...COGIL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
329 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-142030-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
329 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WITH WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS BY MONDAY NIGHT
FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY OCCUR OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN IOWA WHERE ISOLATED SITES COULD RECEIVE THREE
TO FOUR INCHES. THIS MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN RIVERS AND
STREAMS ALONG WITH PONDING WATER ON ROADS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE UP TO DIME SIZED HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LOW...HOWEVER REPORTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED AND ENCOURAGED.

SMALL/DONAVON