Severe Thunderstorm Warning 341, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 182231
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
530 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

IAC099-125-182245-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0341.000000T0000Z-070918T2245Z/
JASPER IA-MARION IA-
530 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION AND JASPER COUNTIES...

AT 527 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THE CENTER OF THE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
KELLOGG...OR ABOUT 37 MILES EAST OF DES MOINES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 
40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OAKLAND ACRES BY 535 PM CDT...

PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...FALLING TREES AND FLYING DEBRIS. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.


LAT...LON 4147 9333 4186 9303 4186 9278 4186 9276
      4164 9276 4139 9312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 224DEG 37KT 4170 9288

$$

COGIL

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 182246
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
546 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

IAC099-125-182256-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0341.000000T0000Z-070918T2245Z/
JASPER IA-MARION IA-
546 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION AND JASPER
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 545 PM CDT...

AT 546 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

REPORT TORNADOES...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE
HALF INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASKING THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4147 9333 4186 9303 4186 9278 4186 9276
      4164 9276 4139 9312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 224DEG 37KT 4171 9287

$$

COGIL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
316 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
110KT JET SEGMENT LIFTING INTO SRN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID MO
VALLEY IN FAVORED ENTRANCE REGION DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF HIGH PLAINS
SHRT WV.  TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF QG FORCING EVIDENT WITH WV EMBEDDED
IN TROUGH...LIFTING NEWD OUT OF ERN DAKOTAS AND TOWARD IA FROM KS.
CONVECTION IN DEEP MOISTURE FETCH TO OUR S AND W EXPANDING IN
INTENSITY AS CAPE/CIN INCREASE/DECREASE RESPECTIVELY WITH 20-30KT
0-1KM SHEAR PUSHING INTO IA.  HEAVY RAIN ENVIRONMENT PUSHING
CLIMATOLOGICAL EXTREMES WITH PWS JUST UNDER 1.90 INCHES AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 12KFT.

OTHER AREA OF CONCERN FARTHER W INTO NE PER RECENT SPC MCD IN BETTER
CONVERGENCE.  19Z SFC ANLYS SHOWS CDFNT FM KS THROUGH NE INTO WRN MN
WITH WV ALONG NE/KS BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
INITIAL CONCERN OBVIOUSLY CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT.  EXPECT THESE
TWO WAVES OF TSTMS POSSIBLY MERGING TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT AND
LIFTING OUT OF FORECAST AREA...AT OR LEAST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS BY
06Z.  WOULD EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA FOR US TO BE CURRENT KS/MO
STORMS.  ALL THREATS OF SVR WX ON THE TABLE AND PRIMARILY SERN HALF
ALTHOUGH NO PARTICULAR ONE TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.  HAIL...WIND AND
LOW TOP TORNADO THREATS MAY INCREASE THERE SLIGHTLY AS TEMPS PUSH
INTO THE 80S BUT THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP WRN AREAS OUT OF THE
SVR THREAT.  EVEN IF NE/KS CONVECTION REACHES IA...DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD DIMINISH SVR CHANCES SOMEWHAT.
AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS POINT TOWARD LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WHICH ARE TAGGED IN FORECAST WORDING...MAINLY CENTRL INTO ERN
SECTIONS...BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYS AND RELATIVELY DRY GROUND
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING.

FNTL BNDRY AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH FAIR WX ANTICIPATED WED AS HIGH BUILDS INTO
UPPER MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. RETURN FLOW/ISENT LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU
LEAD TO TEMPORAL AND SPACIAL EXPANSION OF SLIGHT CHANCES...BUT THAT
IS CURRENT EXTENT OF PCPN WORDING TO END THE WORK WEEK.  THIS MAY
NEED TO BE REVISITED AND HIT HARDER CLOSER TO WETTER GFS SOLUTION IF
TRENDS CONTINUE HOWEVER.

NO BIG DEVIATIONS FROM GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS THROUGH PERIOD
ALTHOUGH NUDGED TOWARD LOW END WED NIGHT AND HIGHER END THU NIGHT
DURING RETURN FLOW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MIXING IN NLY/NELY FLOW
SUGGEST KEEPING THINGS TOWARD LOW END OF GUIDANCE WED...AND EVEN THU
ALTHOUGH WINDS DO SWING SELY.

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH TUE
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHRT WV AND WEAK FNT JUST BRUSHING NRN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SATURATION POTENTIAL
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SUFFICIENT MLCIN SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE TO
PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT AND CONVERGENCE SO WILL KEEP FCST
DRY WHICH IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY GEFS PCPN PROBS.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING PATTERN
WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.  LITTLE
PCPN THREAT WITH TEMPS MAIN FOCUS.  CONSIDERING STRONG SLY FLOW AND
MIXING POTENTIAL SEE NO REASON WHY WE WOULD NOT APPROACH MOS
GUIDANCE.

QUESTION BY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WHEN TO RE-INTRODUCE PCPN.  CANNOT
ARGUE WITH HPC BLEND OF ECMWF/GEFS WHICH ALSO SHOWS SIMILARITIES TO
GEM AND 06Z GFS.  THIS SCENARIO BRINGS FRONT THROUGH AROUND MON/MON
EVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTER MID LEVEL FORCING AND PCPN BEHIND
FRONT BUT AHEAD OF TROUGH INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...18/12Z
MAIN ISSUES CENTER AROUND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS WELL AS TIMING AT
EACH TERMINAL DUE TO CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.  NARROW BAND OF IFR RA
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KDSM THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWARD...SO HAVE PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AT KDSM
THROUGH AFTERNOON. STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NEAR
KOTM LATER THIS EVENING AFT 00 UTC. HAVE SIDED WITH VCSH OR TEMPOS
SHRA AT MCW/ALO AS CURRENT TRENDS ARE NOT SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
TSRA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BSS/KJ/MR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
327 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

IAZ004>006-015-016-023>025-033>035-044>046-057-058-070-071-081-
092-191100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-
WRIGHT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-AUDUBON-
GUTHRIE-CASS-ADAIR-ADAMS-TAYLOR-
327 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IOWA...GENERALLY WEST OF BEDFORD...FORT DODGE AND FOREST CITY.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MID EVENING.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND PENNY SIZED HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR...PRODUCING
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. THIS WOULD CAUSE URBAN
STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED UNTIL MID EVENING. RAINFALL REPORTS
WOULD BE APPRECIATED AS WELL.

IAZ007-017-026>028-036>039-047>050-059>062-072>075-082>086-
093>097-191100-
WORTH-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-
BLACK HAWK-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-
MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
327 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IOWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND PENNY SIZED HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
THREAT. AN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE UNTIL
SUNSET. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH
TOTALS REACHING 1 TO 2 IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS MAY RESULT
IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING...BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR JUST
EAST OF I-35 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED UNTIL LATE EVENING. RAINFALL REPORTS
WOULD BE APPRECIATED AS WELL.

JUNGBLUTH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
447 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     TSTM WND GST     CORYDON                 40.76N 93.32W
09/18/2007  M69 MPH          WAYNE              IA   MESONET

            FROM KCCI TV SCHOOLNET.

&&

COGIL