Severe Thunderstorm Warning 338, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 070528
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1228 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

IAC049-070545-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0338.000000T0000Z-070907T0545Z/
DALLAS IA-
1228 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY...

AT 1225 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DALLAS CENTER...OR
ABOUT 18 MILES WEST OF DES MOINES...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 107 AND 120.

PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...FALLING TREES AND FLYING DEBRIS. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.

REPORT TORNADOES...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE
HALF INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASKING THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4179 9384 4178 9383 4163 9383 4163 9381
      4151 9381 4151 9410 4170 9414
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 255DEG 37KT 4167 9390

$$

KINNEY

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 070546
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1247 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

IAC049-070557-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0338.000000T0000Z-070907T0545Z/
DALLAS IA-
1247 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY
EXPIRED AT 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1242 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

REPORT TORNADOES...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE
HALF INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASKING THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4179 9384 4178 9383 4163 9383 4163 9381
      4151 9381 4151 9410 4170 9414
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 255DEG 37KT 4167 9390

$$

KINNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
800 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST PRIOR TO SUNSET IN MAX DAYTIME HEATING.  AS THIS ACTIVITY
DIES OFF...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN NEBRASKA IS SET TO
BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN IOWA.  CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT
IN INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEBRASKA INTO NW IA AND
MINNESOTA.  THIS CONVECTION WL FOLLOW THE FRONT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
IN A PROGRESSIVE MANNER.  INSTABILITY WL BE WEAKENING AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON ALTHOUGH SHEAR WL INCREASE.  SHOULD STILL SEE SOME THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH MAIN ISSUE COMING FROM DAMAGING
WINDS AND TO A LESSOR EXTENT HAIL.  PWATS WILL BE QUITE HIGH BUT THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING AT THIS POINT.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE WL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE FRONT WITH PCPN CUTTING OFF ACRS THE WEST QUICKLY BY SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY.  TEMPS WL BE PROBLEMATIC AND DEPEND OF FRONTAL POSITION AT
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY-THURSDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LINGERING IN THE EAST THROUGH NOON.
AS HAS BEEN THE TREND DURING THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN GOES ZONAL BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW
TOO MUCH COOLING TO MOVE SOUTH INTO IOWA THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL SETTLE TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

NEXT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY NOT AS
AMPLIFIED AS ON PREVIOUS RUNS AND REMAINS NORTH ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SO I EXPECT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH IA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT COOLING
TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FRONT GET
HUNG UP AND AREAS ACROSS SRN IA COULD ACTUALLY WARM UP A TAD ON
SUNDAY.

OF GREATER SIGNIFICANCE IS THE AMPLIFYING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT MOST MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING IN SOME FORM
OR ANOTHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE INITIAL DIGGING OF THE TROUGH
ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY ENERGIZE SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE THAT WILL BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF SFC LOW WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON WHETHER WE ARE WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OR
WHETHER WE REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOW IN A COOLER...MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WENT CONSERVATIVE ON THE
TEMPERATURE AND POP FORECAST FOR MONDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE UPR MIDWEST WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL CANADIAN
AIRMASSES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...A
REAL TASTE OF EARLY AUTUMN.

&&

.AVIATION...07/00Z
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS WITH THE TIMING OF THE TSRA.  LINE DVLP IN WRN
IA IS ALONG PRE-WSHFT OUT AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AND WENT WITH INIT
TIMING OF TSRA IN TAFS WITH THIS MVMT.  MAIN CDFNT WL PASS EWD AND
BRING WITH IT A FEW HRS OF MVFR IN STRATUS BFR CLEARING SETS IN
DURING THE MRNG.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

SHORT TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS SEP 07
LONG TERM...MOYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
350 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-071100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
350 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL UP
TO NICKEL SIZE ALSO EXISTS. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINS...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORMS SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL EXISTS FROM 10 PM TO 2 AM WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND FROM 1 AM
TO 5 AM EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A FEW NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. OTHER STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA AS WELL. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
APPEARS LOW DURING BOTH OF THESE TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DES MOINES              41.58N 93.62W
09/06/2007  E1.50 INCH       POLK               IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF CARS STALLED IN WATER AND SOME PLACES WITH 2
            TO 2.5 FEET OF STANDING WATER IN ROADWAYS. ESTIMATED
            RAINFALL OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES.

&&

ALBRECHT