Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 241044
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
544 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007

IAC047-241115-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-070324T1115Z/
CRAWFORD IA-
544 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CRAWFORD
COUNTY UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

AT 542 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DEFIANCE...OR 31 MILES SOUTH OF IDA GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DENISON AND MANILLA BY 555 AM CDT...

THE TOWNS OF ARION...DOW CITY...BUCK GROVE...DENISON AIRPORT...
ASPINWALL AND VAIL ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...FALLING TREES AND FLYING DEBRIS. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4186 9567 4186 9545 4187 9510 4215 9519
      4204 9567

$$

JOHNSON

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 241111
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
611 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007

IAC047-241121-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-070324T1115Z/
CRAWFORD IA-
611 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
615 AM CDT...

AT 607 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

REPORT WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE HALF 
INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND ASKING 
THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4186 9567 4186 9545 4187 9510 4215 9519
      4204 9567

$$

VACHALEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY-TONIGHT/...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH FORECAST PACKAGE. MAIN
CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE ON SUNDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SFC
FEATURES TNT ONCE AGAIN FOCUS ON MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA LOW NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. STRONGER WARM FRONT ENTERING
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA ATTM. WARM
TEMPS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE
FIRST PUSH OF MOISTURE NOW INTO IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE H850 BOUNDARY IN EASTERN NE AS THE FOCUS OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND AT 07Z...LIGHTING UP NICELY OVER THAT AREA. CONCERNS
FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL AMPLIFYING AS H700 FLOW VERY WEAK
TONIGHT AND CAPE NOT ALL THAT STRONG. WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AT
H700...EXPECT THE STORMS TO REMAIN TIED TO AND DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND CROSS CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY. DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN NAM AND GFS THOUGH GFS MOST RESEMBLES CURRENT PRECIP
LOCATION. FORCING SIMILAR IN BOTH MODELS. CURRENT ACTIVITY SEEMS
FOCUSED ON NOSE OF NOCTURNAL JET WHICH WEAKENS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. AS H850 LOW RIDES NORTHEAST ...THERMAL FIELDS ADVANCE
NORTHEAST AS WELL WITH INCREASING ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY TOWARD
NOON AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LIFT SHIFTS OVER NORTHERN IA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. INSTABILITY MUTED WITH GENERAL THUNDER EXPECTED.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY TODAY WITH DECENT START TO DAY
ALREADY...TEMPS IN UPPER 40S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. RISK OF SOME
RIVER FLOODING REMAINS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR THE NORTHERN AND
SOME EASTERN BASINS...SO WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT TRIM COUNTY COVERAGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY-SATURDAY/...
INTERESTING DAY ON SUNDAY WITH MOST OF CWA IN WARM SECTOR BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ROCKET INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE AREA WITH
TROUGH/DRY SLOT PROGGED TO MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS
DIFFER GREATLY ON CAPE WITH NAM HOTTER ACROSS NORTHERN MS VALLEY BY
00Z. EASTERN HALF OF CWA RUNNING 800-1000 J/KG FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AHEAD OF FRONT. WIND FIELDS IMPRESSIVE WITH H850 JET
INCREASING TO 40-45 KTS DURING THE PM HOURS. H500/H300 50-80 KTS
WITH AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORED. GFS NOT AS FOCUSED AS NAM FOR THE
EVENT AND CAPE VALUES MUCH LESS. NONE THE LESS...BULK SHEAR OVER
REGION SUFFICIENT FOR SCT SVR STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST AND FAR
NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY SYSTEM NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES MONDAY WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERY PATTERN BEGINNING AS STRONG WAVE OVER
ROCKIES
LIFTS INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. GEM/EURO A BIT SLOWER ONCE AGAIN
WITH SECOND EASTERN WAVE WHICH ADVECTS NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TOWARD IOWA. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
LARGER SCALE OUTBREAK OF SVR STORMS IN/CLOSE TO OUR AREA THIS
UPCOMING PERIOD. MORE REFINEMENT LATER...BUT WILL BE MONITORING
CLOSELY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FROM 7 AM
CDT SATURDAY THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING...

FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN
-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MADISON-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-
WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1052 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

IAZ005>007-016-017-024>028-035>039-048>050-250400-
KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-
FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
1052 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 3.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
PRODUCE RIVER FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

IAZ004-015-023-033-034-044>047-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-
250400-
EMMET-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-CALHOUN-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-
MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-
WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1052 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM CARROLL TO DES MOINES TO OTTUMWA. THOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...ISOLATED NICKEL SIZE HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
PRODUCE RIVER FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM CARROLL TO DES MOINES TO OTTUMWA...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY...MONDAY AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

MOYER