Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 162014
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
314 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

IAC015-162030-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-070616T2030Z/
BOONE IA-
314 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY...

AT 309 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOONE AIRPORT...OR
ABOUT 32 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT DODGE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LAT...LON 4220 9371 4196 9371 4204 9411 4221 9413

$$

VACHALEK

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 162025
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
325 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

IAC015-162035-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-070616T2030Z/
BOONE IA-
325 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 330 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 4220 9371 4196 9371 4204 9411 4221 9413

$$

VACHALEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
625 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN MN WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH EARLY
TODAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS NRN IA. RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND NEAR FRONT...COMBINED WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIDING ON WESTERLIES ON NORTH SIDE OF BROAD UPR LVL RDG
WILL YIELD A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSRA ACROSS NRN IA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND BE UNCAPPED. HOWEVER...SINCE SHEAR IS WEAK...STORMS MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME ORGANIZING. 00Z NAM DOES SUGGEST SLIGHTLY BETTER
0-6KM SHEAR DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NW...SO STORMS
THERE MAY EXHIBIT BETTER ORGANIZATION. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CHANCE OF RAIN DIMINISHES SHARPLY SW OF A
LINE FROM EMMETSBURG TO CLARION TO WATERLOO WHERE ATMOSPHERE MUCH
DRIER AND LACKS FORCING MECHANISM. HOWEVER WHILE STEERING CURRENTS
SHOULD MOVE CONVECTION OFF TO THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST...CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST NEW STORMS WILL FORM TO THE SOUTH. SO THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS COULD MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS DES MOINES.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE CONVECTION WILL
PUSH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE PULLED THE POPS A BITTER FARTHER
SOUTH TO AROUND HIGHWAY 30 FOR NOW. THIS BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
NORTH OVERNIGHT AND UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HOT AND MUGGY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING
THE H5 WAVE POSITION AND TIMING ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
STILL FASTER THAN THE 00Z/16 ECMWF WILL THE SFC FRONT. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ANOTHER NOTCH. 1.8 INCH PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO POOL
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND ML CAPES
AROUND 1500 J/KG. MBE VELOCITIES FROM BUFKIT SUGGEST THERE WILL BE
SOME SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS...BUT THE AREA CAN TAKE PLENTY OF
RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE SPC DAY 3 SLIGHT
RISK AREA JUST SKIRTS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA...COINCIDENT WITH THE
MORE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD STAY FAIRLY LIMITED. THE
FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING AND THEN ANOTHER WEAK FROPA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE PROSPECTS
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW LOOK MUCH LESS AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS FOR TUES/WED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE BRINGING A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH SW IOWA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WILL KEEP
THESE PERIODS DRY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

.AVIATION 16/12Z...
MCS ACROSS SRN MN ALONG COLD FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD. CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN MCS IN NRN
IA AS OF 11Z. APPEARS THAT KMCW CARRIES THE HIGHEST CHC OF OCNL
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 16Z OR SO. WILL LIKELY BE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF
-TSRA AFTER 20Z DURING PEAK HEATING FROM KMCW TO KALO.
OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR VSBY WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING WITH VFR
CONDS PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN TAF PD WHEN MVFR VSBYS RETURN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOYER
LONG TERM...KINNEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
132 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-171100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
132 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM INTERSTATE 80 NORTH.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 30.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 18 THIS
EVENING...WITH NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  STORMS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR
WATERLOO AND MASON CITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THIS EVENING
OVER FAR NORTHERN IOWA.