Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 071933
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
233 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

IAC123-071943-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-070607T1945Z/
MAHASKA IA-
233 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MAHASKA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA 
AFTER PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4151 9256 4151 9242 4127 9242 4128 9252
      4143 9265

$$

JUNGBLUTH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1235 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

UPDATED FOR AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...

VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH BROAD LOW PRES OVR NRN SD AND HAS ONLY
FILLED SLIGHTLY OVR THE PAST 6 TO 8 HRS.  PRES NEAR REC LOWS FOR JUN
WITH THIS ONE.  CNVCTN WEAKENING OVR NE INTO SD ATTM WITH THE CAP OF
+14 AT H7 WELL IN PLACE YET.  IN SPITE OF LLJ OF 90 KTS INDICATED
(ABOUT 70 OR SO IN REALITY DUE TO SOME BIRD INTERACTION) THERE IS NO
CONVERGENCE TO KEEP THINGS GOING.  THIS TREND SHOULD CONT INTO THE
MORNING WITH ONLY SCATTERED TSRA SLIPPING INTO THE WRN CWA.  CAP
WILL ERODE TDA AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALF.  DECENT PARAMETERS I
PLACE FOR THIS AFTN WITH CAP BROKEN, 2-3K OF CAPE AND 60 TO 80 KTS
SHEAR.  STORMS LIKELY TO BE A BIT SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH MSTR
SOMEWHAT LIMITED.  SVR POTENTIAL IS THERE AFTER MID DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVE.  FNT MOVS TO THE E WITH A QUIET PERIOD UNTIL WAA BEGINS
TO AFFECT THE CWA LATER SAT NGT.  SW OR WSWLY FLOW GOING INTO NEXT
WK PROMISES TO KEEP WX PTRN ACTIVE AGAIN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z

DRY LINE MOVING TRHOUGH CENT IA AT MIDDAY IS PUTTING AN END TO
CONVECTIVE THREAT W OF A LINE FROM MCW TO DSM. KALO AND KOTM STILL
HAVE THREAT FOR TSRA...POSSIBLY SVR...THIS AFTN...BUT THAT THREAT
SHOULD END IN THE EAST 21-23Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS/VSBY WILL RULE
THROUGH 06Z AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST...VEERING TO THE W IN THE EVENING. APPEARS THAT WRAP
AROUND LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT CENT IA 06-14Z NW TO SE WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVY 18Z-01Z FOR THE NORTH
HALF OF THE CWA FROM INTERSTATE 80 NORTH.

&&

AVIATION...MOYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
910 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-081100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
910 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WEST HALF OF IOWA THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW COULD BE SEVERE.  HOWEVER STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY FROM NOONTIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WITH SEVERE STORMS QUITE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WILL BE IN AREAS FROM WATERLOO TO OTTUMWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 75 MPH
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION...SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45
MPH...CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FROM
INTERSTATE 80 NORTH.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA ALONG INTERSTATE 80
NORTH. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT STATEWIDE...AND OVER THE NORTH INTO
WEDNESDAY. IS IS TOO EARLY TO BE VERY SPECIFIC AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS CONCERNED...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE IS
A THREAT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.

AN EMERGENCY MANAGER CONFERENCE CALL HAS BEEN SCHEDULED FOR 1000 AM
THIS MORNING.

SMALL