Alert archive / Iowa / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Des Moines, IA

May 23, 2007Adair County, Dallas County, Iowa

NWS Des Moines, IA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 23, 2007, 4:54 PM CDT for Adair County, Dallas County, Iowa. It was in force for 51 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 23, 2007, 4:54 PM CDT (21:54 UTC)
Expired: May 23, 2007, 5:45 PM CDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Des Moines, IA
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Adair County, IA, Dallas County, IA

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 23, 4:58 PM CDT	HAIL 1	4 Sw Stuart, IA
May 23, 5:19 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	6 W Adel, IA	PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
May 23, 5:54 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Adel, IA	DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 4 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 23, 3:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 185 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 200 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -136 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 948 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 200 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 233 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KDMX 232154
SVRDMX
IAC001-049-232245-
/O.NEW.KDMX.SV.W.0115.070523T2154Z-070523T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
454 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...
  NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 453 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ADEL...OR ABOUT 37 MILES
  WEST OF DES MOINES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ADEL BY 520 PM CDT...
  DALLAS CENTER BY 530 PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4151 9425 4159 9425 4183 9383 4163 9382
      4150 9409 4150 9424 4143 9425 4138 9435
      4146 9442

$$

KINNEY

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 232200
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
459 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

IAC001-049-232245-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-070523T2245Z/
ADAIR IA-DALLAS IA-
459 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN DALLAS AND NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES...

AT 457 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 
NEAR DEXTER...OR ABOUT 36 MILES WEST OF DES MOINES...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED ALONG INTERSTATE 
80 NEAR THE STUART EXIT AT 454 PM CDT.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DEXTER BY 505 PM CDT...
  REDFIELD BY 515 PM CDT...
  ADEL BY 530 PM CDT...
  DALLAS CENTER BY 540 PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4151 9425 4159 9425 4183 9383 4163 9382
      4150 9409 4150 9424 4143 9425 4138 9435
      4146 9442

$$

MOYER

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 232220
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
519 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

IAC001-232229-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-070523T2245Z/
ADAIR IA-
519 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4183 9383 4163 9382 4150 9409 4150 9424
      4152 9425 4159 9425

$$

IAC049-232245-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-070523T2245Z/
DALLAS IA-
519 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY...

AT 515 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR ADEL...OR ABOUT 25 MILES WEST OF DES MOINES...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  REDFIELD BY 530 PM CDT...
  DALLAS CENTER BY 530 PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4183 9383 4163 9382 4150 9409 4150 9424
      4152 9425 4159 9425

$$

MOYER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 23, 3:31 PM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 23, 3:31 PM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
331 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MN THROUGH NW IA
AND INTO SE NEB WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THIS EVENING WHILE IT WAITS
FOR SFC CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES. ATMOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF FRONT HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 25 TO 40 KT. SVR TSTM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR NWRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. TRAINING STORMS ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH VERY GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE IN AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES SUPPORTS THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY-WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA ON THURSDAY WHILE
SFC LOW PROPOGATES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF MOIST AIRMASS. MODERATE TO STRONG MID LVL
QG FORCING...VORTICITY ADVECTION AND UPR LVL DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO
SUSTAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX
OF THESE PARAMETERS SHIFTS NORTHEAST BY AFTN...BUT STILL PLENTY OF
JUICE TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RUMBLING ACROSS THE EAST
IN THE AFTN. SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH MID LVL FLOW PARALLEL TO FRONT
AND HIGH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES MEANS TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN
AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF FRONT. THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH A GENERAL
2 TO 3 INCHES BY THURSDAY AFTN. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION
WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE FCSTS...SO WILL LINGER A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING. SVR WX
POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY IS LIKELY GOING TO BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE
INABILITY TO DESTABILIZE. BEST CHANCES OF SVR STORMS WILL BE IN
THE FAR EAST FCST AREA DURING THE AFTN...AHEAD OF FRONT.

FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL DAY FRIDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH NEXT SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN ERN WY FRI AND PULLING NORTHEAST
INTO MN ON SAT. GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO SRN/WRN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL WAIT TO
INTRODUCE POPS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SECONDARY WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO SRN IA. STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF IA DURING THE DAY
SAT...BUT STILL DECENT PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BE
LIFTED. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN...BUT SHEAR IS PRETTY
GOOD. THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY LIKELY...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
MAJOR SEVERE WX EVENT.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER NICE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BAGGY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS NRN
CONUS WITH RIPPLES GENERATED BY SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS IA BY MONDAY WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN FAVORS CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS WITH SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAIN. ITS TOO EARLY TO
TRY AND GET FANCY WITH DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONT WL STALL ACRS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT AHEAD OF
STRENGHTENING SFC FLOW MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS.  CIGS WL
RMN MVFR NR THE FRONT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VSBYS WILL ALSO BE RESTRICTED TO MVFR WITH ISOLD IFR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.  SFC WNDS WL RMN STG FM THE SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE FRONT WITH LIGHTER N WNDS ON THE BACKSIDE.  STG LOW LEVEL JET AT
2-4KFT WL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACRS S CNTRL INTO CNTRL IA AT NEARLY
50KTS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-
CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

MOYER/COGIL

Hazardous weather outlook, May 23, 4:24 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
424 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>025-033>036-044>047-057>059-070-071-081-
092-242130-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-CRAWFORD-
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-ADAMS-
TAYLOR-
424 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN LIKELY
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT DISCERNIBLE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION REMAINS LIKELY THIS EVENING...AND MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN SATURDAY.

IAZ026>028-037>039-048>050-060>062-072>075-082>086-093>097-242130-
FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-STORY-MARSHALL-
TAMA-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
424 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT DISCERNIBLE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION REMAINS LIKELY THIS EVENING...AND MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN SATURDAY.

MOYER

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 23, 3:38 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             5 SSE ATLANTIC          41.33N 95.00W
05/23/2007  E1.25 INCH       CASS               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KJ

Local storm report, May 23, 4:35 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
435 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             GLIDDEN                 42.06N 94.73W
05/23/2007  E1.00 INCH       CARROLL            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BF

Local storm report, May 23, 4:52 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
452 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             5 SSE CASEY             41.45N 94.47W
05/23/2007  E1.00 INCH       ADAIR              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Des Moines, IA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 23, 10:04 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Jasper	41 min
May 23, 1:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Emmet	18 min
May 23, 3:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Cass	52 min
May 23, 3:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Audubon, Guthrie	36 min
May 23, 3:44 PM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	DMX	Adair, Adams, Audubon, Boone, Calhoun, Carroll and 19 more	19 hr
May 23, 3:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Adams, Cass	45 min
May 23, 4:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Carroll	35 min
May 23, 4:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Hancock	25 min
May 23, 5:02 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DMX	Carroll	6 hr
May 23, 5:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Hancock	29 min
May 23, 5:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Dallas	45 min
May 23, 6:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DMX	Polk	38 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Iowa, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.