River Flood Warning 41, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WGUS83 KDMX 152049
FLSDMX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
349 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE DES MOINES RIVER...EAST FORK DES
MOINES RIVER...RACCOON RIVER...

IAC049-153-162049-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-071019T0045Z/
/VNMI4.1.ER.071015T2021Z.071017T0000Z.071018T0045Z.NO/
349 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RACCOON RIVER AT VAN METER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  3:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.5 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.


$$

IAC153-162049-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-071020T0417Z/
/DMWI4.1.ER.071015T1528Z.071017T1200Z.071019T0417Z.NO/
349 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RACCOON RIVER AT DES MOINES HIGHWAY 28.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  3:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 33.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 34.5 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY 
  BEFORE MIDNIGHT.


$$

IAC153-162048-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0042.071015T2048Z-071019T1900Z/
/DEMI4.2.ER.071015T1726Z.071016T1800Z.071018T1900Z.NO/
349 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RACCOON RIVER AT DES MOINES FLEUR DR.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  2:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.0 FEET BY 
  EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.


$$

IAC091-109-162048-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0034.071018T1200Z-071021T0600Z/
/AGNI4.1.ER.071018T1200Z.071018T1800Z.071020T0600Z.NO/
349 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER AT ALGONA.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  3:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 14.1 FEET BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

IAC015-079-187-162048-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0033.071017T0600Z-071021T0000Z/
/STRI4.1.ER.071017T0600Z.071017T1800Z.071020T0000Z.NO/
349 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE DES MOINES RIVER AT STRATFORD.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  3:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 14.3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KDMX 160252
FLSDMX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
952 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE DES MOINES RIVER...EAST FORK DES
MOINES RIVER...RACCOON RIVER...SOUTH SKUNK RIVER...

IAC091-109-170252-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0034.071018T0000Z-071021T1200Z/
/AGNI4.1.ER.071018T0000Z.071018T1800Z.071020T1200Z.NO/
952 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER AT ALGONA.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 14.2 FEET BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. 

$$

IAC049-153-160322-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-071019T0045Z/
/VNMI4.1.ER.071015T2017Z.071015T2230Z.071016T0000Z.NO/
952 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
  THE RACCOON RIVER AT VAN METER.
* AT  9:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.0 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  7:00 PM MONDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 11.9 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.


$$

IAC153-170252-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-071017T1509Z/
/DMWI4.1.ER.071015T1528Z.071016T0200Z.071016T1509Z.NO/
952 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RACCOON RIVER AT DES MOINES HIGHWAY 28.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 34.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE TUESDAY MORNING.


$$

IAC153-170251-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-071017T1222Z/
/DEMI4.1.ER.071015T1726Z.071016T0130Z.071016T1222Z.NO/
952 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RACCOON RIVER AT DES MOINES FLEUR DR.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TUESDAY MORNING.


$$

IAC015-079-187-160322-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-071021T0000Z/
/STRI4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
952 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
  THE DES MOINES RIVER AT STRATFORD.
* AT  9:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 13.8 FEET 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.


$$

IAC123-160322-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-071018T2034Z/
/OOAI4.1.ER.071015T0707Z.071015T1500Z.071015T2025Z.NO/
952 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
  THE SOUTH SKUNK RIVER AT OSKALOOSA.
* AT  9:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.7 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  3:25 PM MONDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 15.0 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.


$$

000 
WGUS83 KDMX 160808
FLSDMX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
308 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

...A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER...
RACCOON RIVER...

IAC091-109-170808-
/O.CON.KDMX.FL.W.0034.071018T0000Z-071021T1200Z/
/AGNI4.1.ER.071018T0000Z.071018T1800Z.071020T1200Z.NO/
308 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER AT ALGONA.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 2:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 14.2 FEET BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

IAC153-170808-
/O.CON.KDMX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-071017T1509Z/
/DMWI4.1.ER.071015T1528Z.071016T0500Z.071016T1509Z.NO/
308 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RACCOON RIVER AT DES MOINES HIGHWAY 28.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 2:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 34.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

IAC153-170808-
/O.EXT.KDMX.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-071017T1330Z/
/DEMI4.2.ER.071015T1726Z.071016T0700Z.071016T1330Z.NO/
308 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RACCOON RIVER AT DES MOINES FLEUR DR.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 2:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

000 
WGUS83 KDMX 161441
FLSDMX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
941 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RACCOON RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

IAC153-161511-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-071017T1509Z/
/DMWI4.1.ER.071015T1528Z.071016T0500Z.071016T1251Z.NO/
941 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE RACCOON RIVER AT DES 
MOINES HIGHWAY 28.
* AT 9 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 31.4 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET.
  THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 8 AM TUESDAY.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
LG WV THROUGH MOVING INTO NE/KS THIS MORNING.  RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF KS/OK SPEED MAX AIDING SRN PLAINS MCS WHILE THINGS ARE QUIETING
DOWN HERE.  SHRT WV EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY OVER SRN NE WITH OTHER
WVS STILL YET TO ROUND BOTTOM OF TROUGH. LOBE OF QG FORCING WRAPPED
AHEAD OF H5/H7 CIRCULATION INTO IA AND NE...BUT BEST THETA-E
ADVECTION MOVING MORE E ACROSS MO THAN N.  08Z SFC ANLYS PLACES LOW
NEAR KCNK WITH INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH MO RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK
WRMFNT ACROSS MO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE FATE OF CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
APPEARS BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN W AND S OF AREA THIS MORNING IN
CORE OF NE SHRT WV AND S ASSOCIATED WITH JET FORCING.  RADAR TRENDS
WEAKENING SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  WORST HIT AREAS ALREADY
HAVE WARNINGS IN PLACE AND THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING SEEMS
MINIMAL.  FORCING SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME PCPN
GOING TODAY SO HAVE CARRIED BAND OF CAT POPS ROTATING NWD BY
AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO IA TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS WITH HIGH END NERN PORTIONS IN AREA OF DEEPER
FORCING.  CHANCES LINGER FROM SW-NE TUE BUT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AS
BEST UVM AND MOISTURE NOW WELL TO THE N AND E.  SHOULD DRY OUT TUE
NIGHT AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS IA BUT BREAK WILL BE
BRIEF.

ALL MODELS BRING SYS JUST OFF CA COAST INTO MIDWEST WED.  00Z
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR DETAILS.
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING BOTH INCREASE WED BUT SEEM TO
PEAK WED NIGHT.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT REALLY INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW
AND SHOULD BRING YET ANOTHER MCS TO IA WED NIGHT.  SYS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT THAN PRESENT ONE...BUT SEASONALLY HIGH PWS REMAIN AND
COULD EXASPERATE FLOODING CONCERN WITH ONE-TWO INCH AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.  HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FURTHER THROUGH LIKELY TO BRINK OF
CATEGORICAL AND WILL ISSUE ESF FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

WITH SFC LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO IA TODAY TEMPS WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD COOLER END OF GUIDANCE NORTH AND
WARMER END SOUTH.  WITH SFC LOW LINGERING OVER IA TUE SHOULD NOT SEE
MUCH WARMING OR MIXING AS SUGGESTED BY SOUNDINGS SO HAVE GONE AROUND
OR BELOW COOLEST GUIDANCE IN MOST SPOTS.  RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST
COOL END OF THINGS WED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...15/12Z
SFC LOW OVER SE NEBRASKA WITH LINE OF SHOWERS WRAPPING NORTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN IOWA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO CWA THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS
ADVERTISING LOTS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IFR STRATUS DECK OVER ERN KANSAS ATTM. THEREFORE ANTICIPATE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AS SFC
LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS SCENARIO...AND
HAVE REPRESENTED THIS BY ONLY INCLUDING SCT LOW DECK ACROSS SRN
TERMINAL SITES. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS NRN TERMINALS AS
CURRENT BAND LIFTS NORTH...AND WRAP-AROUND PRECIP ENTERS CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
MOST SITES BY LATER IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK
INTO MOST TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BSS/MJA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
620 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-161100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
620 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE AREA TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A FEW MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINS...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

HOWEVER SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT DUE TO PREVIOUS
RUNOFF. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY AGAIN PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WITH
AMOUNTS FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING...OR EXASPERATE
FLOODING ALREADY IN PROGRESS.

A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA...BUT
DETAILS AND EXACT THREATS WILL NOT BECOME BETTER DEFINED UNTIL
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS RELATIVELY
LOW FOR THE TIME BEING.  HOWEVER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING MAY BE NEEDED AND ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

SMALL