River Flood Warning 30, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WGUS83 KDMX 092035
FLSDMX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED...

IAC091-109-092105-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-071012T1800Z/
/AGNI4.N.ER.071009T0615Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
335 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE EAST FORK DES MOINES 
RIVER AT ALGONA.

* AT 3 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.6 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
700 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AM...WITH UPPER LOW ROTATING ACROSS MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION
RENDERING CENTRAL IOWA AND MOST SURROUNDING AREAS CLEAR. AT LEAST 2
DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL IOWA
AS UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAKES WAY FOR A
WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SECONDARY
PUSH SFC-850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TODAY AND AS SUCH WILL
IMPACT TODAYS AND WEDNESDAYS HIGHS. IN ADDITION A VERY EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATUS AS SEEN ON 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD...MAKING THE FORECAST EVEN TOUGHER BY MIDWEEK GIVEN THE
UNKNOWN COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND ITS EFFECT OF BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...HAVE HEDGED MOST OF THE TEMP GRIDS TOWARD
THE GFS MODEL FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH GENERALLY ACTED TO
COOL  HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH LESS EFFECT ON LOWS IN THE EASTERN
SECTIONS WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY.  WITH HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD
BY THURSDAY...WILL LIKELY EXPECT WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
60S. GENERALLY SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
OUTLIER ECMWF ADVERTISING A NORTHWESTERLY VORTICITY LOBE SWINGING
THROUGH DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...WILL ABSTAIN FROM
GOING ZERO PROBABILITY AND KEEP SOME VERY LOW CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. FARTHER INTO THE EXTENDED...GFS....ECMWF AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE CANADIAN ALL DEVELOP WARM AIR ADVECTION PCPN ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY...WITH A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SPREADING
PCPN INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE GONE  WITH 20-30 POPS
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS PER HPC GUIDANCE.

&

.AVIATION...09/12Z

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  WINDS WERE
INCREASED OVER KALO...KMCW AND KOTM AFTER 09/18Z AS A RESULT.
SECOND ISSUE IS THE ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WHICH HAS MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL MN.  I BELIEVE
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NE/E THIRD TO HALF OF
IOWA AS THE LOW TREKS SOUTHEAST.  LOWER CLOUDS WERE BROUGHT IN
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BOKSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
427 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2007

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-101100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
427 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RUSSELL