River Flood Warning 17, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WGUS83 KDMX 240233
FLSDMX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
933 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DES MOINES RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

IAC179-240303-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-070826T2024Z/
/OTMI4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
933 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE DES MOINES RIVER AT 
OTTUMWA.
* AT 9 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.1 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER SHOULD CREST AT 9.9 FEET.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
316 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

..UPDATED FOR TAFS...

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED THROUGH SOUTHERN IA. THE BOUNDARY WILL
SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND AREAS
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL BE ADJUSTING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE SOUTH
FOR TONIGHT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY. ONE CONCERN IS THE DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND MAY LIMIT ACTIVITY AFTER THIS AFTERNOONS AND THE EARLY
EVENING ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME THOUGH
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REFIRE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET POINTS INTO THE BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY MORNING THEN EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE DAY. GOOD NEWS IS LOCATIONS
HARDEST HIT OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL SEE LIMITED RAINFALL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL GIVE A PERIOD FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.

SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. A DECAYING MCS MAY
REACH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS ENOUGH
KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT AND LESS
HUMID WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. RETURN FLOW AND STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. WARMER ON MONDAY THEN WILL MAINTAIN RETURNING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
DEAN REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN UPPER MIDWEST ARRIVAL. THESE SYSTEMS
TYPICALLY CAN BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS THEMSELVES AND WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY FOCUS ONCE CURRENT SITUATION FINALLY PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
WEAK FRONT IN STATE WITH UNSTABLE AIR PRODUCING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR VSBY AND CEILINGS.  OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS
MVFR CIGS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM
THURSDAY.
IAZ049-050-059>062-070>075-081>086-092>097

&&

LONG TERM...DONAVON/FORSTER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ALBRECHT/FORSTER/9/5/0

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

IAZ049-050-059>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-242045-
MARSHALL-TAMA-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
333 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE IS SEVERE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADO. OTHERWISE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS IS HEAVY RAINFALL...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FRIDAY...AND IS STILL TO BE
DETERMINED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>048-057-058-242045-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-
333 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN
MINIMIZED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA...BUT AT THIS
TIME CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FRIDAY...AND IS STILL TO BE
DETERMINED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ALBRECHT