Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...19Z MSAS SFC PRESSURE PLOT PLACED A WEAK LOW CENTER
NEAR HCO IN NW MN. SFC OBS INDICATE THIS IS FAIRLY ACCURATE AND
SFC BOUNDARY THAT WAS N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER HAS DROPPED
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA. CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WAS ALL THAT WAS NEEDED TO INITIATE A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KOOCHICHING COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC MOISTURE
IS POOLING S OF THE FRONT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER
70S. SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE DAKOTAS AND SAGGING FRONT
WORTH KEEPING A MENTION OF POPS OVER THE N WHERE SFC COMPUTED LI/S
HAVE RISEN TO -9C...SFC BASED CAPED NEAR 3000 J/KG AND SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. POPS WARRANTED FOR TONIGHT
NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE N.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AGAIN EARLY
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING NEAR THE FRONT. BY AFTERNOON...WAA UP TO H7...WILL
EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE AND PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WAA...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO
THE 80S AND WARMER TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

THERMAL RIDGE/UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FA SUNDAY
NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS LEAK OVER THE CANADIAN BORDER IN
THE FAR NW QUAD OF THE FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

RIDGING BEGINS TO WEAKEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM/SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS WITH TIME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SYSTEM COMES INTO
FA. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES POINT TOWARD SLIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SEE RESPECTIVE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FOR DETAILS. RAIN ENDS
FROM W TO E TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOL SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
CANADA. RAIN FREE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION ACROSS NRN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS. THERMAL/WIND PROFILES SUPPORT HAIL AND ISOLATED
GUSTS AOA 50KT...WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ON OUTFLOW BDRYS AS THEY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  58  84  60 /  10  10  10  10
INL  87  62  89  58 /  20  50  20  30
BRD  87  62  89  65 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  85  58  89  62 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  84  58  87  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

GSF/CANNON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
346 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

LSZ121-140>148-162-MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-
006>009-241045-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI
TO GRAND PORTAGE MN-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-
SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-
SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-
ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
346 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM CASS LAKE...TO FLOODWOOD AND ELY. THE MAIN HAZARDS
ARE LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING IN KOOCHICHING...ITASCA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ST. LOUIS
COUNTIES.

GSF