Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
227 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE NW
CORNER OF MN...COUPLED WITH A SFC LOW. THE DRY SLOT AS SEEN ON
VIS SAT EXTENDS FROM BEMIDJI...SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT TO
BRAINERD...ST CLOUD...AND THE WRN TWIN CITIES METRO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AND
HEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE TWIN PORTS TO
HINCKLEY...AND EAST INCLUDING NW WIS. INSTABILITY AXIS IS
NARROW...BUT SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR GENERATING SEVERE
STORMS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL /FZING LVL AROUND 8
KFT/...BUT LARGE SHEAR AND CONFLUENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY ALSO
POSES A THREAT FOR TORNADIC STORMS.

ACTIVE WEEK SETTING UP FOR THE UPPER PLAINS. VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW CURRENTLY RESIDING IN THE BORDERLAND...AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING.
RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND
ARROWHEAD REGION AS THE LOW DEPARTS INTO ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING.
FAST APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL TAKE
HOLD OF THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S...AND A
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO WAA WITH A SRLY FLOW BY MONDAY
MORNING...INCREASING THICKNESSES AND BOOSTING AFTERNOON TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S. A CUT OFF LOW SRN CANADA...WILL DRIFT EAST INTO SW
MANITOBA...BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE WRN ZONES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN MN AND EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A 40 KT LLJ AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS NEAR STEADY...OR RISING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FEATURE...SPREADING EAST OVER THE FA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CUT-OFF COLD CORE LOW WILL FOLLOW THE SFC FEATURE AND
SLOWLY SLIDE SE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...CONTINUE THE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO TONIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
MINNESOTA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN AITKIN TO TWO HARBORS
LINE...INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD
OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD OVER
ALL OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  64  38  63 /  40  20  10  10
INL  42  62  34  71 /  70  10  10  30
BRD  42  65  37  71 /  10  10  10  20
HYR  43  64  35  68 /  30  10  10  10
ASX  43  62  36  66 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ143-
     LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-
     LSZ141-LSZ142.

GRANING/MELDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
750 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

LSZ121-140>148-162-MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-
006>009-271030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI
TO GRAND PORTAGE MN-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-
SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-
SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-
ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
750 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PINE RIVER...TO THE TWIN
PORTS...TO WINTER. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THIS
AREA. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...FROM
GRAND PORTAGE...TO DULUTH...TO BAYFIELD...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED INTO THIS EVENING FOR INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS.
SEE THE LATEST NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DAP