Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
336 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO
PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALREADY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH ONE
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR EMBARRASS.

THE NAM SHOWS A PLUME OF CAPE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS OUR CWA
TODAY...WITH VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX 0-3KM SRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 150-250
J/KG...WHICH IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT TO TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE
THE THE AMOUNT OF CIN...WHICH IS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 50-125
J/KG. THEREFORE ATTM WILL ONLY MENTION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER NWRN WI BY 00Z TUESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST OVER NRN WI AND UPPER MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...MOST
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OUR WI ZONES
THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MUCH MORE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING DUE TO PREVIOUS AND ON-GOING
CONVECTION...AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF SENSIBLE HEATING. MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE LOW.

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING IN THE FCST LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW HOWEVER...AS
THE THEY DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  46  64  36 /  50  40  20  10
INL  73  46  62  33 /  50  30  20  10
BRD  81  46  66  38 /  40  30  20  10
HYR  85  49  65  37 /  50  50  20  10
ASX  81  48  62  36 /  50  50  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

BERDES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
504 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

LSZ121-140>148-162-MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-
006>009-151030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI
TO GRAND PORTAGE MN-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-
SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-
SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-
ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
504 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
SEVERE. THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BERDES