Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS43 KDDC 141349
WSWDDC

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
749 AM CST WED FEB 14 2007

...WIND CHILL CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS MORNING...

.NORTH WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO BELOW 10 MPH THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. THEREFORE, THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 AM.

KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-141500-
/O.CAN.KDDC.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-070214T1400Z/
TREGO-ELLIS-NESS-RUSH-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR...
HAYS...ELLIS...NESS CITY...LA CROSSE...RUSH CENTER...JETMORE...
HANSTON...LARNED...BURDETT...ST. JOHN...STAFFORD...HUDSON
749 AM CST WED FEB 14 2007

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. 

NORTH WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 10 MPH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY COLD THIS MORNING AND PEOPLE THAT MUST
VENTURE OUT SHOULD BUNDLE UP TO KEEP WARM.

$$

LACY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 PM CST TUE FEB 13 2007

.DAYS 1-2...

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES HOLD NEARLY STEADY. DID HAVE FEW BREAKS OF SUN
IN THE EAST WITH THE NAM12 BL AND 925 RH FIELD PICKING UP ON THIS
AND ALSO SUGGESTING THIS TREND WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPSLOPE FLOW AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA SO WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDY HERE AND KEEP THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW.
FURTHER EAST ONLY MENTION A FEW FLURRIES...MAINLY EARLY BASED ON
CURRENT OBS. WITH A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT IN THE EAST WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES...ESPEICALLY IN THE NORTHEAST
WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS AVERAGED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. PLACED
COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA TONIGHT BUT MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
THIS WILL BE CONCERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO  AS A PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF
BELOW ZERO TEMPS.

AS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...S/W TROF MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER KEEPING ANY WARMING
FROM THE SUN TO A MINIMUM. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PCPN IN THE WEST GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL LIFT. BASED ON DRYER LAYERS
IN THE EAST WILL ONLY MENTION FLURRIES AS THIS S/W TROF PASSES.

.DAYS 3-7...

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
BEGINNING WITH COMPARING THE ECMWF/UKMET WITH THE CANADIAN.
CONFIDENCE SEEMS TO LIE WITHIN THE ECMWF/UKMET. AT THIS TIME THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND WITH THE NEXT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH ECMWF/UKMET ARE STILL KEEPING
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE OUR NEXT WARMUP COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AT +4C. 00Z SAT SOUNDING
AT THE 850 LEVEL SHOWS TEMPERATURES AT 14C FOR FRIDAY.  GIVEN THE
FACT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSERVATIVE GIVEN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURE BELOW MODEL VALUES DUE TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH RAPIDLY DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DROP TEMPERATURES
ANY LOWER THAN THE MID 50S FOR SATURDAY HIGHS.

LOOKING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BLANKET
THE MIDWEST PUSHING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC   4  11   1  20 /  10  20  10   0
GCK   5  13   2  23 /  10  20  10  10
EHA   9  20   8  28 /  10  30  10  10
LBL   9  17   7  27 /  10  30  10   0
HYS   0   8  -4  19 /   0  10  10   0
P28  10  13   4  23 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN18/30/31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CST TUE FEB 13 2007

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-141000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1200 PM CST TUE FEB 13 2007 /1100 AM MST TUE FEB 13 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF A SYRACUSE TO
GARDEN CITY TO MEADE LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

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