Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
301 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

12Z MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG UPPER JET DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
CA, AZ AND NM. 145KT JET WAS MOVING ACROSS RENO THIS MORNING. H5
HEIGHT FALLS IN EXCESS OF 60 METERS WERE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ROCKIES. STRONG S/WV COULD SEE SEEN ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN NM/WESTERN TX BORDER. H7 TEMPERATURES
REMAINED ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN TX
NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PLENTY OF H85 MOISTURE
WAS AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW. 10C OR GREATER
DEWPOINTS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NE.

WINDS AND WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL SLOWLY TO
MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AT 17Z, COLD FRONT WAS STILL ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO NM. THE WARM FRONT HAD
PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE. THE DRYLINE HAD MOVED
EAST OF DODGE CITY WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AND PRATT REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DEVELOPING CU FIELD IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE DRYLINE, A FEW SHOWERS AND STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN EXTREME EASTERN FA.
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, 0-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS WITH CAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO
SHIFT EAST BY EVENING. SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS WRAP AROUND SYSTEM
AS IT PULLS NORTHEAST TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM ACROSS TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES
ALONG WITH EXTREME EASTERN AREAS. BY THURSDAY MORNING, BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. GRADIENT BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM IS
IMPRESSIVE. H85 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS ARE PRESENT WITH POCKET
OF 50KT WINDS IN NORTHERN FA. IF SUN CAN SHINE IN THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY, HIGH WINDS CRITERIA MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. EITHER WAY,
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD BE AT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY TO MID MORNING.
PLAN ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FA FROM 15Z THU TO
00Z FRI. ANOTHER NOTE OF CONCERN INVOLVES THE FORECASTED HIGHS
THU. H85 TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA BY 12Z THU. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FA DURING THE DAY. READINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FA
WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE SOUTHWESTERN FA WILL ONLY
RISE INTO THE LOWER TEENS AT H85. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BULK OF
THE FA BEING BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LAST LONG. BY FRIDAY MORNING, LEE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION. FOR A BRIEF PERIOD, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO TAKE
OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WILL MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.

DAYS 3-7...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYSTEM COMING IN
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST.  THINGS RAPIDLY GO
DOWNHILL FROM THERE, WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES BY SUNDAY.  GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY, WITH THE
ECMWF CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHILE THE GFS HAS
A VERY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH.  THE 06Z GFS HAS IT SO FAST THAT IT BLOWS
BY AND PRODUCES VERY LITTLE PRECIP, AND THE TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  THE 12Z GFS THAT CAME OUT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
SLOWER.  THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LOW WALLOWING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH 240 HOURS AND SEEMS RATHER UNREALISTIC.  CANADIAN AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE GFS, BUT NOT AS SLOW AS
THE ECMWF EITHER.  GOING THROUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER
INDIVIDUALLY, IT IS A NEARLY EVEN SPLIT WHETHER THE SYSTEM CUTS OFF
WEST OF THE PLAINS, OVER THE PLAINS, OR EAST OF THE PLAINS.  GOING
FORECAST REFLECTS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION WITH LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.  GIVEN THAT ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MAXED OUT
AND UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH, SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE BIG CHANGES TO
THIS.  EXPERTS ON TROPICAL CONVECTIVE FORCING HAVE BEEN LEANING
TOWARDS THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION, AND IF THIS IS THE CASE THE
FORECAST WILL BE WETTER THAN WE HAVE GOING.  FOR NOW, WILL KEEP
POP/WX AS THEY ARE AND MADE ONLY MINOR COSMETIC TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...

DRYLINE HAS PASSED KDDC AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
EAST OF ALL BUT KHYS THIS EVENING.  MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.  HOWEVER, CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
AT MID-LEVELS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.  WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST, WITH SOME 25 TO 30 KTS
AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  66  38  78 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  44  67  36  79 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  43  67  36  78 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  44  67  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  49  62  39  76 /  40  20   0   0
P28  53  66  44  76 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

FN30/26/26

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
410 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             2 N MEDICINE LODGE      37.31N 98.58W
10/17/2007  E1.25 INCH       BARBER             KS   PUBLIC

&&

JRJ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
419 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HAIL             2 N MEDICINE LODGE      37.31N 98.58W
10/17/2007  E2.50 INCH       BARBER             KS   PUBLIC

            FUNNEL CLOUD WAS OBSERVED AS WELL.

&&

JRJ