Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
314 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

I HAD TO PRETTY MUCH GO WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS GIVEN
SHORT TERM CONCERNS. I EXTENDED THE HIGH POPS AND SEVERE WORDING
IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 03Z TO BE CONSISTENT WITH TORNADO WATCH #246
AND CURRENT TRENDS. I MAY HAVE TO DO SOME MODIFICATIONS TO FLOOD
WATCH FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN A FEW HOURS. THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WILL AGAIN GET THE BRUNT OF THE STORMS AND OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES HAVE THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT. AFTER 1200 UTC MONDAY
JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST ALLOWING COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MOST OF THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
MY CWA TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY.

DAYS 3-7...

TIME WAS LIMITED TO SPEND ON DAYS 3-7.  TROPICAL CONVECTIVE FORCING
REMAINS PERSISTENT AROUND 120E WHILE FLARE-UPS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH PACIFIC.  RECENT EXCITATION OF UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW FROM BOTH EQUATORIAL AND
MIDLATITUDE SOURCES CONTRIBUTED THE CURRENT WESTERN USA TROUGH AND
VERY ACTIVE SEVERE LOCAL STORM REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THESE TYPE
OF CIRCULATION EVOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING EVERY 10-15 DAYS
SINCE LATE FEBRUARY.  THE WEATHER-CLIMATE SITUATION REMAINS IN A
GSDM STAGE 1 SITUATION WHILE VARIATIONS ORBIT FROM STAGE 4 TO
STAGE 2 WITHIN THAT BASE STATE.

AS MOST MODELS SHOW (NO PREFERENCE), A WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  THIS FEATURE IS THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS
THE DEEP WESTERN STATES TROUGH DEPLETED ENERGETICALLY BY THAT TIME.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE WHAT
COULD BE A RESPECTABLE RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE CWA ON ABOUT
WEDNESDAY.  THUS I RAISED POPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY.  AFTERWARDS, A
DRY AND WARMER REGIME WILL RETURN TO THE CWA BY NEXT WEEKEND.  WITH
THE WESTERLIES SHIFTING NORTH, I THINK THERE WILL BE MORE TROUGHS TO
IMPACT THE WESTERN STATES LATER WEEK 2 INTO WEEK 3. OUR LOCAL WEEK
2 OUTLOOK WILL READ ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FOR THE DDC AND
HYS TERMINALS.  MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY MUCH LOWER ARE PROBABLE IN
AND NEAR THE STORMS.  I THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 21-06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  71  53  73 /  60  30  30  30
GCK  51  70  51  73 /  50  20  30  20
EHA  49  68  49  73 /  40  20  30  30
LBL  53  70  51  73 /  50  30  30  30
HYS  58  73  54  73 /  70  30  30  30
P28  63  74  59  75 /  70  40  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-088-089.

&&

FN23/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
448 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ030-031-043>046-063-064-076>078-086-087-071000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-HASKELL-GRAY-
FORD-SEWARD-MEADE-
448 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT BACK TO
THE WEST TO A MEADE TO DODGE CITY AND WAKEENEY LINE BY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE SOME FLOODING MAINLY IN EASTERN FORD COUNTY
WHERE THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085-071000-
HAMILTON-KEARNY-STANTON-GRANT-MORTON-STEVENS-
448 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007 /348 AM MDT SUN MAY 6 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ065-066-079>081-088>090-071000-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
448 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ERUPT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING WITH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
226 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             ASHLAND                 37.19N 99.77W
05/06/2007  E1.75 INCH       CLARK              KS   PUBLIC

0131 PM     HAIL             22 SE DODGE CITY        37.53N 99.73W
05/06/2007  E0.88 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

0135 PM     HAIL             19 SE DODGE CITY        37.56N 99.77W
05/06/2007  E0.88 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

&&

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HAIL             GREENSBURG              37.61N 99.29W
05/06/2007  E1.50 INCH       KIOWA              KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORT FROM EMERGENCY SERVICES COORDINATOR.

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
304 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             4 W LIEBENTHAL          38.65N 99.39W
05/06/2007  E1.00 INCH       RUSH               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0245 PM     HAIL             1 E SCHOENCHEN          38.71N 99.31W
05/06/2007  E0.88 INCH       ELLIS              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED BY THE ELLIS COUNTY EM

&&

UMSCHEID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
318 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 PM     HAIL             5 WSW GRAY              38.12N 99.71W
05/06/2007  E1.00 INCH       HODGEMAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             ALEXANDER               38.47N 99.55W
05/06/2007  E0.75 INCH       RUSH               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

UMSCHEID

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
413 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ066-062215-
STAFFORD-
413 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STAFFORD COUNTY...

AT 408 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH OF SEWARD TO NEAR BYERS...
MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

REMEMBER...NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OVER A ROAD.  TURN AROUND...DONT
DROWN

LAT...LON 3784 9900 3785 9854 3823 9852 3824 9891
      3799 9888 3798 9901

BURKE