Severe Thunderstorm Warning 270, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 210217
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
916 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

KSC083-210226-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0270.000000T0000Z-070821T0245Z/
HODGEMAN KS-
916 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL HODGEMAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN COUNTY REMAINS IN 
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3815 9998 3803 10015 3791 9997 3798 9981
      3817 9971

$$

18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE 12Z RAOBS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A MID LEVEL HOT PLUME
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER
JET STREAK WITH 75KT 200MB WINDS WAS SAGGING SOUTH INTO KANSAS.
THE SOUNDING FROM DDC SHOWED AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM
700-550MB, WITH INCREASING RH WITH HEIGHT UP TO THE SATURATED
ACCAS LAYER. ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPED AROUND NOON TODAY IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THESE HAVE BECOME SFC BASED AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WITH 55-70KT FLOW AT 200MB AND
3000-4000J/JG CAPE, SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AS LARGE
AS HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING SINCE THE 0-6 KM WINDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK. SO 200MB STORM
RELATIVE FLOW WILL BE 50-60KTS. THIS WILL HELP THE STORMS
REACH SEVERE LEVELS SINCE PRECIPITATION EVACUATION WILL
HELP IN THE SEPARATION OF THE UPDRAFTS FROM THE PRECIP CORES,
LEADING TO LONGER LIVED STORMS. WITH FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR FROM 0-3
KM AND HIGH CLOUD BASES, TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN OR
CENTRAL KS BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES EACH DAY WITH
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE FURTHER NORTH, WITH THE STORMS
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT OUTFLOW FROM INITIAL STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY MAY HELP FIRE STORMS FURTHER SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY FALL BY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT,
CAPES WILL BE LOWER BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CLOUD BASES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST PLACES SO
A HEAT ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED. BUT WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT, AND WITH A T/TD OF 99F/69F AT DODGE
CITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE VERY UNCOMFORTABLE WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FROM 104F TO 108F. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN OUR NE COUNTIES(105F TO 110F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DAYS 3-7...

BASED ON THE LATEST UPDATES ON THE GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION PLOT,
ANGULAR MOMENTUM IS ON THE ORDER OF THREE SIGMA BELOW MEAN VALUES.
THERE IS AT LEAST A TREND TOWARD HIGHER MOMENTUM VALUES BASED ON THE
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION PLOT BUT OVERALL AAM SHOULD STAY ON THE LOW
SIDE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA.  MOST OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS FORECAST A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN WITH
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
WITH A TENDENCY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WEST.

THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST EJECTING OUT INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
WASHING OUT ON SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGHING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.
FOR THURSDAY, WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA. WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH.  HAVE ALSO BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IF THE MODELS LOCK ON TO THIS FORECAST
I MAY BE BUMPING POPS UP INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS. WE SHOULD HAVE A BREAK FROM PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES RETURNING TO THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD
DAY 7.  IN THE 8 TO 10 DAY PERIOD, WILL GO WITH NEAR NORMAL ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS IN THE WESTERN
CONUS SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASED OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TSRA COULD AFFECT AIRPORT OPERATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AT HAYS AND GARDEN CITY AND POSSIBLY EARLY THIS EVENING AT DODGE
CITY. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY 03Z.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
AROUND DODGE CITY AND HAYS.  THIS COULD RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS TOWARD
12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71 100  72  98 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  69 101  69  98 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  67 100  68  96 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  70 100  70  97 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  71  99  72  98 /  40  40  40  40
P28  74  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN24/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
149 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-211900-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
149 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007 /1249 PM MDT MON AUG 20 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE. HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR
SIZE AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS... THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LARNED TO GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE.

HEAT INDICES WILL BE BETWEEN 104 AND 108 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM CDT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

FINCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
733 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             11 SSE COLLYER          38.89N 100.04W
08/20/2007  E0.75 INCH       TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

0630 PM     HAIL             6 ESE LAKIN             37.91N 101.16W
08/20/2007  E1.00 INCH       KEARNY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
816 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             6 ENE ULYSSES           37.61N 101.25W
08/20/2007  E1.00 INCH       GRANT              KS   PUBLIC

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 ENE ULYSSES           37.61N 101.25W
08/20/2007  E60.00 MPH       GRANT              KS   PUBLIC

            ONE INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN. EMPTY GAS TANK BLOWN OVER.

0745 PM     HAIL             11 ENE ULYSSES          37.64N 101.17W
08/20/2007  E0.75 INCH       GRANT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
825 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     HAIL             11 NW LIBERAL           37.16N 101.08W
08/20/2007  E1.00 INCH       STEVENS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
846 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             5 W LIBERAL             37.04N 101.03W
08/20/2007  E1.00 INCH       SEWARD             KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            RELAYED BY NWS AMARILLO.

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
848 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     HAIL             12 SE ULYSSES           37.46N 101.20W
08/20/2007  E0.75 INCH       GRANT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
851 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 N SUBLETTE           37.62N 100.85W
08/20/2007  E80 MPH          HASKELL            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WIND BLEW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
            SUBLETTE...ESTIMATED BY OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE.

&&

LACY